With the expansion of the NCAA tournament to 16 teams this year, even knowledgeable people around college hockey have been thrown into confusion about the new seeding process. And since the NCAA has publicized its new guidelines for seeding, here is a third weekly peek — “bracketology”-style — at what the NCAA tournament would look like if the season ended today.
There are two teams already in the tournament — New Hampshire as the Hockey East champion and Wayne State as the CHA champion. We will assume that the tournament winners of the CCHA, ECAC, and WCHA are already in the top 14 of the PairWise Rankings. This means that no team from those conferences makes the tournament that wouldn’t already have been an at-large seed.
The facts:
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, per a meeting of the Championship Committee:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts including competitive equity, financial success and likelihood of playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For the model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
Additionally, the NCAA recently clarified its selection criteria to include a bonus factor for “good” nonconference wins. Since the precise workings of the bonus are not yet known, that standard is not applied in this analysis.
Given these facts, let’s take a look at the current PairWise Rankings (as of March 17, 2003):
1 Colorado College
2 Cornell
3 New Hampshire
4 Boston University
5 Maine
5 Ferris State
7 Minnesota
8 Boston College
9 North Dakota
9 Michigan
11 MSU-Mankato
12 Ohio State
13 Harvard
14 Michigan State
15 St. Cloud State
15 Providence
17 Dartmouth
17 Northern Michigan
19 Denver
20 Massachusetts
21 Notre Dame
22 Minnesota-Duluth
23 Merrimack
23 Yale
25 Miami
26 Western Michigan
27 Mass.-Lowell
27 Brown
29 Alaska-Fairbanks
Step One
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
Remember our assumption that the tournament winners of the CCHA, ECAC, and WCHA are in the Top 14. We break ties in the PairWise Rankings by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add Wayne State and (by assumption) MAAC regular-season champion Mercyhurst as those conferences’ autobid representatives.
Now that we are closer to the actual tournament let’s take the selection of the 16 teams to another level, looking at the bubble in a more detailed fashion.
That starts with determining where the bubble is — and it seems to start with Harvard, the team that has the 13th most PairWise comparison wins. Taking it a step further, the bubble currently ends with Northern Michigan and Dartmouth, tied for 17th.
The bubble group therefore consists of Harvard, Michigan State, St. Cloud, Providence, Northern Michigan and Dartmouth.
Comparing the bubble teams directly with one another, we have the following list of comparison wins:
Harvard — Michigan State, St. Cloud, Providence, Dartmouth
Michigan State — St. Cloud, Northern Michigan, Providence, Dartmouth
St. Cloud — Providence, Northern Michigan
Providence — Northern Michigan, Dartmouth
Northern Michigan — Harvard, Dartmouth
Dartmouth — St. Cloud
We need to pick two teams here, and Harvard and Michigan State have more comparison wins against the other teams on the bubble than the rest. We’ll choose them.
Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 Colorado College
2 Cornell
3 New Hampshire
4 Boston University
5 Maine
6 Ferris State
7 Minnesota
8 Boston College
9 North Dakota
10 Michigan
11 Minnesota State
12 Ohio State
13 Harvard
14 Michigan State
15 Mercyhurst
16 Wayne State
Step Two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 Seeds — Colorado College, Cornell, New Hampshire, Boston University
No. 2 Seeds — Maine, Ferris State, Minnesota, Boston College
No. 3 Seeds — North Dakota, Michigan, Minnesota State, Ohio State
No. 4 Seeds — Harvard, Michigan State, Mercyhurst, Wayne State
Step Three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals. Following the guidelines, there is only one rule which must be enforced immediately, that of the host team being placed in its own regional. In this case, the only such team is Boston University, so the Terriers are placed in the Northeast Regional.
Now we place the other No. 1 seeds based on proximity to the regional sites.
Colorado College is placed in the West Regional.
Cornell is placed in the East Regional.
New Hampshire is placed in the Midwest Regional.
Step Four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).
No. 2 Seeds
Minnesota goes to the West Regional as the host school.
Maine goes to the Northeast Regional.
Ferris State goes to the Midwest Regional.
Boston College goes to the East Regional.
No. 3 Seeds
Michigan goes to the Midwest Regional as the host.
North Dakota goes to the West Regional.
Minnesota State/Ohio State goes to the East/Northeast Regional (No compelling reason yet).
No. 4 Seeds
Harvard goes to the Northeast Regional.
Michigan State goes to the Midwest Regional.
Mercyhurst goes to the East Regional.
Wayne State goes to the West Regional.
Now, let’s take a look at the brackets as we have set them up.
West Regional:
Colorado College vs. Wayne State
Minnesota vs. North Dakota
Midwest Regional:
New Hampshire vs. Michigan State
Ferris State vs. Michigan
East Regional:
Cornell vs. Mercyhurst
Boston College vs. Minnesota State/Ohio State
Northeast Regional:
Boston University vs. Harvard
Maine vs. Minnesota State/Ohio State
Our first concern is avoiding intra-conference matchups. We see that in both the West Regional and the Midwest Regional we have this case.
We need to try to eliminate Minnesota vs. North Dakota and Ferris State vs. Michigan.
Addressing the Minnesota-North Dakota game first, Minnesota, as the host school, cannot be switched. So North Dakota has to move regions. North Dakota can switch with any of the other three No. 3 seeds, but, we can’t move North Dakota to the Midwest Regional since that means Michigan would have to move, and the Wolverines are the host school. And we can’t switch North Dakota with Minnesota State since that creates another WCHA-WCHA matchup.
That leaves Ohio State. So we make the switch, North Dakota goes to either the East or Northeast Regional, while Ohio State moves to the West.
Now we address Ferris State vs. Michigan. Once again, Michigan, as a host school, cannot be moved. Therefore Ferris State must change places with another No. 2 seed. Ferris State cannot switch with Minnesota, because Minnesota is a host school. That leaves Maine or Boston College. Boston College being the lower of the seeds in the band, would be switched, but let’s reserve this change and come back to it.
Where to place Minnesota State and North Dakota? North Dakota is seed “3a” while Minnesota State is seed “3c.” How about Maine and Boston College? Boston College is “2d”; Maine is “2a.” Let’s match the highest with the lowest for one game, and then we’ll have our other matchup set as well. In this case Maine plays Minnesota State and BC plays North Dakota.
Let’s take a closer look at the brackets from a financial, and then a competitive aspect.
Financially, we have pretty good brackets. Minnesota and Colorado College as the top two seeds in the West Regional make for a good draw. The Midwest Regional with Michigan and Michigan State should be great. We can’t count Ferris State here because the Bulldogs had to be moved — though to where we’re not sure yet.
In the East Regional, Cornell and Boston College bring great crowds. In the Northeast Regional, Boston University and Maine, along with Harvard, make for an excellent draw.
So, looking at this, we still have to make a switch. What to do?
In the Northeast Regional, BU and Harvard are a presence, even with Maine taken out. So should we switch Ferris State with Maine since we will still get a good financial gain in Worcester? Or do we switch Ferris State with Boston College? Switching Ferris State with Boston College would not benefit Providence.
So what do we do? We switch Maine with Ferris State in the Northeast Regional.
The brackets:
West Regional:
Colorado College vs. Wayne State
Minnesota vs. Ohio State
Midwest Regional:
New Hampshire vs. Michigan State
Maine vs. Michigan
East Regional:
Cornell vs. Mercyhurst
Boston College vs. North Dakota
Northeast Regional:
Boston University vs. Harvard
Ferris State vs. Minnesota State
We now add two ad hoc steps to finish out the selections.
Step Five
Examine the brackets for final competitive changes — and everything looks fine.
So the tournament is now fixed.
Now we can bracket the Frozen Four. If all four number-one seeds advance, then the top overall seed plays the No. 4 overall, and No. 2 plays No. 3. Therefore, the winners of the West and Northeast Regionals face each other in one semifinal (Colorado College and Boston University’s brackets), while the winners of the East and Midwest Regionals (Cornell and New Hampshire’s brackets) face each other in the other semifinal.
Step Six
Sit back, discuss and enjoy the hockey.
The Bonus, Once Again
In case you haven’t seen, USCHO.com now has an interactive feature whereby one can look at the PairWise, then add in a guess at NCAA’s new bonus-points system.
Toying around with that feature, we can produce alternative sets of selections and seeds. First, a stab at some bonus figures. It stands to reason that the NCAA would pick bonuses which can impact the field without making them so big that they totally subvert the remaining criteria.
Since teams in the top 15 of the RPI — those being the teams against which “quality” wins can be earned, according to the NCAA — are on average about .003 apart, the bonuses should be somewhere in that vicinity. With that in mind, we take a stab and assign .001 for a home quality win, .003 for one at a neutral site, and .005 for one on the road.
Another possibility exists, of course — that the goal of the bonus system isn’t really to have teams jump one another, but rather not to change things, keeping them status quo while adding an air of mystery back into the selection process. A clever ruse?
At any rate, using our guess-timated bonus figures, things change.
Here are the modified PairWise Rankings:
1 Cornell
2 Colorado College
3 New Hampshire
4 Boston University
5 Ferris State
5 Maine
7 Minnesota
8 Boston College
9 North Dakota
9 Michigan
11 Minnesota State
12 Ohio State
13 St. Cloud State
14 Harvard
14 Providence
16 Michigan State
17 Northern Michigan
17 Dartmouth
19 Denver
There are some big changes. Cornell is now the top-seeded team, and the bubble includes more viable teams. Plus, St. Cloud is now in the tournament, which it was not before.
The selection rankings, done as before, are:
1 Cornell
2 Colorado College
3 New Hampshire
4 Boston University
5 Ferris State
6 Maine
7 Minnesota
8 Boston College
9 North Dakota
10 Michigan
11 Minnesota State
12 Ohio State
13 St. Cloud State
14 Harvard (by virtue of most comparison wins within the bubble group)
15 Mercyhurst
16 Wayne State
The seeds:
No. 1 Seeds — Cornell, Colorado College, New Hampshire, Boston University
No. 2 Seeds — Ferris State, Maine, Minnesota, Boston College
No. 3 Seeds — North Dakota, Michigan, Minnesota State, Ohio State
No. 4 Seeds — St. Cloud State, Harvard, Mercyhurst, Wayne State
The regionals:
No. 1 Seeds:
Boston University — Northeast
Cornell — East
Colorado College — West
New Hampshire — Midwest
No. 2 Seeds:
Minnesota — Midwest
Ferris State — Midwest
Maine — Northeast
Boston College — East
No. 3 Seeds:
Michigan — Midwest
North Dakota — West
Minnesota State — Northeast
Ohio State — East
No. 4 Seeds:
St. Cloud State — West
Harvard — Northeast
Mercyhurst — Midwest
Wayne State — East
The matchups:
West Regional
Colorado College vs. St. Cloud State
Minnesota vs. North Dakota
Midwest Regional
New Hampshire vs. Mercyhurst
Ferris State vs. Michigan
East Regional
Cornell vs. Wayne State
Boston College vs. Ohio State
Northeast Regional
Boston University vs. Harvard
Maine vs. Minnesota State
We have problems in the West and the Midwest. We need to move St. Cloud and North Dakota.
St. Cloud is easy: the Huskies switch with Mercyhurst in the Midwest region. This creates a Colorado College-Mercyhurst matchup which is 2 vs. 15 in the overall rankings.
Now we need to move North Dakota — which we switch with Ohio State — and Ferris State. It’s either Boston College or Maine for FSU, and Maine moves per the logic we used in the section above.
The final regional brackets:
West Regional
Colorado College vs. Mercyhurst
Minnesota vs. Ohio State
Midwest Regional
New Hampshire vs. St. Cloud State
Maine vs. Michigan
East Regional
Cornell vs. Wayne State
Boston College vs. North Dakota
Northeast Regional
Boston University vs. Harvard
Ferris State vs. Minnesota State
How do these differ from what we had before adding the bonus points? The biggest change is that Michigan State is out and St. Cloud is in. There’s also the fact that Cornell is now the No. 1 seed overall, switching with Colorado College.
Interesting, eh?
So many questions, so few answers. The best we can do is just wait and see.
We’ll be back on Sunday with a final look at the potential NCAA tournament brackets.
