It’s time once again for what we like to call Bracketology — college hockey style. It’s a weekly look at how the NCAA tournament might look if the season ended today.
More than that, it’s a look into the thought process behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.
This is the seventh installment of Bracketology, and we’ll be bringing you a new one every week, until we make our final picks just before the field is announced.
Here are the facts:
• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.
• There are four regional sites (East – Worcester, Massachusetts, Northeast – Amherst, Massachusetts, Midwest – Grand Rapids, Mich., West – Minneapolis, Minn.)
• A host institution which is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host, and cannot be moved.
• Seedings will not be switched, as opposed to years past. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intraconference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, per a meeting of the Championship Committee:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts including competitive equity, financial success and likelihood of playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For the model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
• The top four teams as ranked by the committee are the four No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals.
• Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.
• No. 1 seeds are placed as close to home as possible in order of their ranking 1-4.
• Conference matchups in first round are avoided, unless five or more teams from one conference are selected, then the integrity of the bracket will be preserved.
• Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s ranking of 1-16. The top four teams are the No. 1 seeds. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds. These groupings will be referred to as “bands.”
Additionally, the NCAA recently clarified its selection criteria to include a bonus factor for “good” nonconference wins, which are wins against non-league opponents in the top 15 of the Ratings Percentage Index.
Given these facts, here are the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and all conference leaders, based on winning percentage (Sacred Heart, Michigan, Bemidji State, Cornell, Boston College and Denver) (through all games of Monday, February 21, 2005):
1 Denver
2 Colorado College
3t Cornell
3t Boston College
5 Minnesota
6 Michigan
7t Wisconsin
7t Boston University
7t New Hampshire
7t Massachusetts-Lowell
11 Harvard
12 Ohio State
13t Colgate
13t Dartmouth
15 North Dakota
16 Northern Michigan
24 Bemidji State
— Sacred Heart
Step One
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add all of the conference leaders, based on winning percentage.
From there, we can start looking at the bubble in a more detailed fashion.
Breaking ties in the PWR using head-to-head comparisons among the tied teams, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 Denver
2 Colorado College
3 Cornell
4 Boston College
5 Minnesota
6 Michigan
7 Wisconsin
8 Boston University
9 New Hampshire
10 Massachusetts-Lowell
11 Harvard
12 Ohio State
13 Colgate
14 Dartmouth
15 Bemidji State
16 Sacred Heart
All ties were broken because of individual comparison wins. The main differences this week are that Dartmouth and Colgate are in the tournament, replacing North Dakota and Northern Michigan.
Step Two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 Seeds — Denver, Colorado College, Cornell, Boston College
No. 2 Seeds — Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Boston University
No. 3 Seeds — New Hampshire, Massachusetts-Lowell, Harvard, Ohio State
No. 4 Seeds — Colgate, Dartmouth, Bemidji State, Sacred Heart
Step Three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals. There are no host teams in this grouping, so that rule does not need to be enforced. We now place No. 1 seeds based on proximity to the regional sites.
No. 1 Denver is placed in the West Regional in Minneapolis.
No. 2 Colorado College is placed in the Midwest Regional in Grand Rapids.
No. 3 Cornell is placed in the Northeast Regional in Amherst.
No. 4 Boston College is then placed in the East Regional in Worcester.
Step Four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (except for host schools, which must be assigned to their home regionals).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 v. No. 8, No. 2 v. No. 7, No. 3 v. No. 6 and No. 4 v. No. 5.
So therefore:
No. 2 Seeds
No. 5 Minnesota is placed in No. 1 Denver’s Regional, the West, as the host.
No. 8 Boston University is placed in No. 4 Boston College’s Regional, the East, as the host.
No. 6 Michigan is placed in No. 3 Cornell’s Regional, the Northeast
No. 7 Wisconsin is placed in No. 2 Colorado College’s Regional, the Midwest.
No. 3 Seeds
Our bracketing system has one Regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16, another with 2, 7, 10, 15, another with 3, 6, 11, 14 and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
Therefore:
No. 9 New Hampshire is placed in No. 8 Boston University’s Regional, the East.
No. 10 UML is placed in No. 7 Wisconsin’s Regional, the Midwest.
No. 11 Harvard is placed in No. 6 Michigan’s Regional, the Northeast.
No. 12 Ohio State is placed in No. 5 Minnesota’s Regional, the West.
No. 4 Seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 v. No. 1, No. 15 v. No. 2, etc.
No. 16 Sacred Heart is sent to Denver’s Regional, the West.
No. 15 Bemidji State is sent to Colorado College’s Regional, the Midwest.
No. 14 Dartmouth is sent to Cornell’s Regional, the Northeast.
No. 13 Colgate is sent to Boston College’s Regional, the East.
The brackets as we have set them up:
West Regional:
Sacred Heart vs. Denver
Ohio State vs. Minnesota
Midwest Regional:
Bemidji State vs. Colorado College
UML vs. Wisconsin
East Regional:
Colgate vs. Boston College
New Hampshire vs. Boston University
Northeast Regional:
Dartmouth vs. Cornell
Harvard vs. Michigan
Our first concern is avoiding intra-conference matchups. We have quite a few.
Let’s resolve the dilemma of Dartmouth-Cornell. We can’t move Dartmouth and Colgate, since both of those are ECACHL teams, so we have to switch Dartmouth with Bemidji State.
Now we take care of UNH vs. BU. We can’t switch UNH with UML, so we switch UNH with Harvard.
We now have our bracket:
West Regional:
Sacred Heart vs. Denver
Ohio State vs. Minnesota
Midwest Regional:
Dartmouth vs. Colorado College
UML vs. Wisconsin
East Regional:
Colgate vs. Boston College
Harvard vs. Boston University
Northeast Regional:
Bemidji State vs. Cornell
UNH vs. Michigan
Bracketing the Frozen Four, if all four number-one seeds advance, then the top overall seed plays the No. 4 overall, and No. 2 plays No. 3. Therefore, the winners of the West and East Regionals face each other in one semifinal (Denver and Boston College’s brackets), while the winners of the Midwest and Northeast Regionals (Colorado College and Cornell’s brackets) play the other semifinal.
But…
Bonus Time
We know there is a bonus component to the criteria, the NCAA’s tweak to the system which rewards “good” nonconference wins.
Without official word on the size of the bonuses, we take these numbers: .003 for a good road win, .002 for a good neutral win and .001 for a good home win.
Now remember, nonconference wins against conference opponents do not count toward the bonus. For example, when Alaska-Anchorage defeated Minnesota in the Nye Frontier Classic, that didn’t count.
Our seedings are now:
1 Denver
2 Colorado College
3 Boston College
4 Minnesota
5 Michigan
6 Cornell
7 Boston University
8 Massachusetts-Lowell
9 New Hampshire
10 Wisconsin
11 Ohio State
12 Harvard
13 North Dakota
14 Colgate
15 Bemidji State
16 Sacred Heart
A few noticeable changes here as in Cornell falling from 4 to 6, North Dakota replacing Dartmouth in the tournament (on the basis of the Sioux’ two wins at Maine, which is No. 15 in the unadjusted RPI).
So, our new brackets, using our bracket-filling like above, we have a few changes.
West Regional:
North Dakota vs. Minnesota
Harvard vs. Michigan
Midwest Regional:
Sacred Heart vs. Denver
UNH vs. UML
East Regional:
Bemidji State vs. Colorado College
Wisconsin vs. Boston University
Northeast Regional:
Colgate vs. Boston College
Ohio State vs. Cornell
We need to resolve UND-Minnesota here, so we switch North Dakota with Colgate. We also need to resolve UNH vs. UML. We can’t switch UNH with Wisconsin, since that would pit UNH against fellow Hockey East member BU, so we have to switch UNH with Ohio State.
So here are the brackets this week:
West Regional:
Colgate vs. Minnesota
Harvard vs. Michigan
Midwest Regional:
Sacred Heart vs. Denver
Ohio State vs. UML
East Regional:
Bemidji State vs. Colorado College
Wisconsin vs. Boston University
Northeast Regional:
North Dakota vs. Boston College
UNH vs. Cornell
What if we took these numbers: .005 for a good road win, .003 for a good neutral win and .001 for a good home win?
The changes — Dartmouth replaces Colgate, and Boston College switches places with Colorado College. Our seedings:
1 Denver
2 Boston College
3 Colorado College
4 Minnesota
5 Michigan
6 Cornell
7 Boston University
8 Massachusetts-Lowell
9 New Hampshire
10 Wisconsin
11 Ohio State
12 Harvard
13 North Dakota
14 Dartmouth
15 Bemidji State
16 Sacred Heart
And our brackets:
West Regional:
North Dakota vs. Minnesota
Harvard vs. Michigan
Midwest Regional:
Sacred Heart vs. Denver
UNH vs. UML
East Regional:
Bemidji State vs. Boston College
Wisconsin vs. Boston University
Northeast Regional:
Dartmouth vs. Colorado College
Ohio State vs. Cornell
We can’t switch North Dakota with Dartmouth as above, so we have to move everyone down a slot. Bemidji State goes to play the No. 3 seed, Dartmouth the No. 4 seed and North Dakota the No. 2 seed.
Then we once again switch UNH with Ohio State.
So our new brackets are:
West Regional:
Dartmouth vs. Minnesota
Harvard vs. Michigan
Midwest Regional:
Sacred Heart vs. Denver
Ohio State vs. UML
East Regional:
North Dakota vs. Boston College
Wisconsin vs. Boston University
Northeast Regional:
Bemidji State vs. Colorado College
UNH vs. Cornell
That’s it for this week.
There are plenty of items to discuss, but all of you know how it all works. Instead, we’ll go in-depth. Join me in the USCHO.com/CSTV Chat Room, Tuesday at the Rink, on Tuesday at 2 p.m. ET where we can explore it some more.
