It’s time once again for what we like to call Bracketology — college hockey style. It’s our latest investigation of how the NCAA tournament might look if the season ended today.
More than that, it’s a look into the thought process behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.
Here are the facts:
• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.
• There are four regional sites (East – Worcester, Massachusetts, Northeast – Amherst, Massachusetts, Midwest – Grand Rapids, Mich., West – Minneapolis, Minn.)
• A host institution which is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host, and cannot be moved.
• Seedings will not be switched, as opposed to years past. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intraconference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, per a meeting of the Championship Committee:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts including competitive equity, financial success and likelihood of playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For the model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
• The top four teams as ranked by the committee are the four No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals.
• Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.
• No. 1 seeds are placed as close to home as possible in order of their ranking 1-4.
• Conference matchups in first round are avoided, unless five or more teams from one conference are selected, then the integrity of the bracket will be preserved.
• Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s ranking of 1-16. The top four teams are the No. 1 seeds. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds. These groupings will be referred to as “bands.”
Additionally, the NCAA recently clarified its selection criteria to include a bonus factor for “good” nonconference wins, which are wins against non-league opponents in the top 15 of the Ratings Percentage Index.
Given these facts, here are the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and all conference leaders, based on winning percentage (Quinnipiac, Michigan, Bemidji State, Cornell, Boston College and Denver) (through all games of Saturday, March 12, 2005):
1t Colorado College
1t Denver
1t Boston College
4 Minnesota
5 Cornell
6t Harvard
6t Michigan
8 Boston University
9 Wisconsin
10 North Dakota
11t New Hampshire
11t Maine
13t Colgate
13t Dartmouth
15 Ohio State
16t Michigan State
16t Vermont
26 Bemidji State
— Quinnipiac
Step One
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add all of the conference leaders, based on winning percentage.
From there, we can start looking at the bubble in a more detailed fashion.
Breaking ties in the PWR using head-to-head comparisons among the tied teams, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 Colorado College
2 Denver
3 Boston College
4 Minnesota
5 Cornell
6 Harvard
7 Michigan
8 Boston University
9 Wisconsin
10 North Dakota
11 New Hampshire
12 Maine
13 Colgate
14 Dartmouth
15 Bemidji State
16 Quinnipiac
All ties were broken because of individual comparison wins.
The biggest difference from Saturday morning is that Colgate is now in the tournament and Ohio State is out. Bowling Green getting swept by Alaska-Fairbanks — and therefore leaving the ranks of Teams Under Comparison — really, really, really hurt both Ohio State and Michigan.
Step Two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 Seeds — Colorado College, Denver, Boston College, Minnesota
No. 2 Seeds — Cornell, Harvard, Michigan, Boston University
No. 3 Seeds — Wisconsin, North Dakota, New Hampshire, Maine
No. 4 Seeds — Colgate, Dartmouth, Bemidji State, Quinnipiac
Step Three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.
We place host schools first and then place the other No. 1 seeds based on proximity to the regional sites.
No. 4 Minnesota is placed in the West Regional in Minneapolis as the host school.
No. 1 Colorado College is placed in the Midwest Regional in Grand Rapids.
No. 2 Denver is placed in the East Regional in Worcester.
No. 3 Boston College is placed in the Northeast Regional in Amherst.
Step Four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intraconference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 v. No. 8, No. 2 v. No. 7, No. 3 v. No. 6 and No. 4 v. No. 5.
So therefore:
No. 2 Seeds
No. 8 Boston University is placed in No. 2 Denver’s Regional, the East, as the host.
No. 5 Cornell is placed in No. 4 Minnesota’s Regional, the West.
No. 6 Harvard is placed in No. 3 Boston College’s Regional, the Northeast.
No. 7 Michigan is placed in No. 2 Colorado College’s Regional, the Midwest.
No. 3 Seeds
Our bracketing system has one Regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16, another with 2, 7, 10, 15, another with 3, 6, 11, 14 and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
In this case with the No. 2 seeds being displaced, we’re trying to get the 8-9, 7-10, 6-11, and 5-12 matchups as close as possible.
Therefore:
No. 9 Wisconsin is placed in No. 7 Michigan’s Regional, the Midwest.
No. 10 North Dakota is placed in No. 8 Boston University’s Regional, the East.
No. 11 New Hampshire is placed in No. 6 Harvard’s Regional, the Northeast.
No. 12 Maine is placed in No. 5 Cornell’s Regional, the West.
No. 4 Seeds
One more time, and this time we’re going back to taking No. 16 v. No. 1, No. 15 v. No. 2, etc.
No. 16 Quinnipiac is sent to Colorado College’s Regional, the Midwest.
No. 15 Bemidji State is sent to Denver’s Regional, the East.
No. 14 Dartmouth is sent to Boston College’s Regional, the Northeast.
No. 13 Colgate is sent to Minnesota’s Regional, the West.
The brackets as we have set them up:
West Regional:
13 Colgate vs. 4 Minnesota
12 Maine vs. 5 Cornell
Midwest Regional:
16 Quinnipiac vs. 1 Colorado College
9 Wisconsin vs. 7 Michigan
East Regional:
15 Bemidji State vs. 2 Denver
10 North Dakota vs. 8 Boston University
Northeast Regional:
14 Dartmouth vs. 3 Boston College
11 New Hampshire vs. 6 Harvard
Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have none, so this is our bracket.
Bracketing the Frozen Four, if all four number-one seeds advance, then the top overall seed plays the No. 4 overall, and No. 2 plays No. 3. Therefore, the winners of the Midwest and West Regionals face each other in one semifinal (Colorado College and Minnesota’s brackets), while the winners of the East and Northeast Regionals (Denver and Boston College’s brackets) play the other semifinal.
But…
Bonus Time
We know there is a bonus component to the criteria, the NCAA’s tweak to the system which rewards “good” nonconference wins, wins against teams in the Top 15 of the RPI rankings.
Without official word on the size of the bonuses, we take these numbers: .003 for a good road win, .002 for a good neutral win and .001 for a good home win.
Recall that nonconference wins against conference opponents do not count toward the bonus. For instance, when Alaska-Anchorage defeated Minnesota in the Nye Frontier Classic, that didn’t count.
Our seedings are now:
1 Boston College
2 Colorado College
3 Denver
4 Minnesota
5 Cornell
6 Harvard
7 Michigan
8 Boston University
9 Wisconsin
10 North Dakota
11 New Hampshire
12 Maine
13 Dartmouth
14 Colgate
15 Bemidji State
16 Quinnipiac
There really is no difference here except that Boston College is now a clear No. 1 seed.
So, our new brackets, using bracket-filling as above, are as follows:
West Regional:
13 Dartmouth vs. 4 Minnesota
12 Maine vs. 5 Cornell
Midwest Regional:
15 Bemidji State vs. 2 Colorado College
10 North Dakota vs. 7 Michigan
East Regional:
16 Quinnipiac vs. 1 Boston College
9 Wisconsin vs. 8 Boston University
Northeast Regional:
14 Colgate vs. 3 Denver
11 New Hampshire vs. 6 Harvard
Wow — it’s perfect. No intraconference matchups. Bracket and competitive equity is perfect. And also, attendance is great.
Nice: I like it.
What if we took these numbers: .005 for a good road win, .003 for a good neutral win and .001 for a good home win?
Does anything change? Nope, the brackets stay the same.
What about Sunday?
Which game is the most interesting?
Without a doubt, it’s the Alaska-Anchorage vs. Wisconsin matchup.
UAA is teetering as a TUC. We go back to the question — is it best for Wisconsin to lose this series? Last week we said no. How about right now?
Wisconsin, with a loss to UAA, can potentially lose three more comparisons, to BU, North Dakota and Maine. This would put the Badgers at No. 12 at the worst in the PairWise. So perhaps losing to UAA isn’t that bad of a deal after all.
The CCHA is in trouble, isn’t it?
The league is teetering on the verge of only getting one bid, that’s for sure.
Bowling Green and Miami getting swept does not help the CCHA. Neither can now be a TUC, which hurts the records against TUCs for some of the league’s top teams, including Michigan and Ohio State. But there is hope with UAF and WMU.
UAF is right on the edge of being a TUC. A win in Detroit makes the Nanooks a TUC. But then there are two other games after that — and the first would be against Michigan, Ohio State, or Nebraska-Omaha.
WMU is further back in the RPI. The Broncos will need to beat NMU Sunday, then win at least two games in Detroit.
Well, this whole thing will change again with four days of games left. We’ll be back on Monday with another edition of Bracketology.
