So here’s the current state of the PWR, with about a month left to go before the NCAA selections:
Rk Team               GP W- L- T Win% Rk    RPI Rk PWR
1 Mercyhurst         28 25- 1- 2 0.9286 1 | 0.6208 1 | 16
2 Wisconsin          30 25- 1- 4 0.9000 2 | 0.6105 2 | 15
3 Dartmouth          25 19- 4- 2 0.8000 4 | 0.6013 3 | 14
4 New Hampshire      27 20- 3- 4 0.8148 3 | 0.5950 4 | 13
5 Harvard            23 17- 4- 2 0.7826 5 | 0.5853 5 | 12
6 St. Lawrence       30 22- 6- 2 0.7667 6 | 0.5848 6 | 11
7 Minnesota          28 19- 8- 1 0.6964 8 | 0.5637 7 | 10
8 Minnesota-Duluth   28 16- 8- 4 0.6429 9 | 0.5627 8 | 9
The projection that best preserves bracket integrity is:
- Minnesota-Duluth at (1) Mercyhurst
- Harvard at New Hampshire
- St. Lawrence at Dartmouth
- Minnesota at (2) Wisconsin
It’s also worth discussing the bracket that does the best to avoid intraconference matchups while preserving bracket integrity. That would be:
- Minnesota-Duluth at (1) Mercyhurst
- Harvard at New Hampshire
- Minnesota at Dartmouth
- St. Lawrence at (2) Wisconsin
The question remains, is it worth swapping Minnesota and St. Lawrence in this scenario to avoid both ECACHL and WCHA intraconference matchups? Right now, the gap between the third-place team in the ECACHL and the second-place team in the WCHA is still large by the standards of the criteria. But if Minnesota or UMD sweep their final regular season head-to-head series, and one of the ECACHL frontrunners slips up down the stretch, it will certainly make the swap easier.
The most important game with regard to NCAA selections this week is tomorrow’s Harvard at BC Beanpot semifinal. Just like last season, BC is right outside the tournament bubble heading into the Beanpot, and a win would greatly improve the Eagles chances at an at-large berth. This season, the gap between BC and Harvard in the NCAA criteria is likely too large for BC to catch Harvard. However, a win over Harvard would be practically be as good for BC as a win over Minnesota-Duluth, who is the No. 8 team in the PWR. The reason is, BC and UMD have no common opponents yet, but UMD has already lost twice to Harvard. So a win over Harvard would give BC that common opponents edge over UMD down the stretch.
I promised a closer look at the race for the No. 1 seed. Mercyhurst does indeed control its own destiny for the No. 1 seed, even though Wisconsin does have a tougher schedule down the stretch. One Laker loss would be enough to get Wisconsin the No. 1 seed if the Badgers win out. The situation where the Lakers tie once and Wisconsin wins out is more ambiguous. In that case, which team is No. 1 could depend on whether St. Cloud State, a team Wisconsin tied twice, ends up counting as a team under consideration with an RPI above .500 — another fine quirk in the NCAA selection criteria.
