In this week’s second edition of Bracketology, Jayson Moy issued a challenge to come up with novel or unlikely scenarios for the NCAA tournament using this weekend’s potential results in USCHO.com’s PairWise Predictor.
Several folks sent in interesting combinations, some of which were unfortunately rendered moot in short order by Wisconsin’s victory over Michigan Tech Thursday night in the WCHA play-in game. But some are still live.
Three For Three In The WCHA
Longtime USCHO.com watchdog and friend Todd Cioffi sent in a discussion of the consequences of the ECACHL third-place game. To my eye, the most interesting scenario that results is this one:
CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Lake Superior defeats Notre Dame.
CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Lake Superior.
CCHA Consolation game: Michigan State defeats Notre Dame.
ECACHL Semifinal #2: Dartmouth defeats Clarkson.
ECACHL Semifinal #1: St. Lawrence defeats Quinnipiac.
ECACHL Championship game: Dartmouth defeats St. Lawrence.
ECACHL Consolation game: Clarkson defeats Quinnipiac.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats Boston College.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Massachusetts defeats New Hampshire.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston University defeats Massachusetts.
WCHA Semifinal #2: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats Minnesota.
WCHA Consolation game: Wisconsin defeats St. Cloud State.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Connecticut defeats Army.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Sacred Heart defeats Air Force.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Connecticut defeats Sacred Heart.
Not only is there a five-way tie for third, which gets broken in the usual way by looking at head-to-head comparisons and then the RPI, but it gives the WCHA three No. 1 seeds — the only three WCHA teams in the NCAAs, in this case.
Changing the winner of the ECACHL third-place game produces amusing results. As Todd points out, “BU is always in 3rd, but their seed changes based on who else, if anyone, is tied with them.” Play around and see what happens.
Hockey East: We’re All No. 2!
Here’s one that hasn’t gone by the wayside just yet, courtesy of Fan Forum regular pro1disp. (His version actually included MTU beating Wisconsin, but that turns out not to matter.) The result of this scenario? All four No. 2 seeds go to Hockey East schools.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan State defeats Michigan.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Notre Dame defeats Lake Superior.
CCHA Championship game: Notre Dame defeats Michigan State.
CCHA Consolation game: Lake Superior defeats Michigan.
ECACHL Semifinal #2: Clarkson defeats Dartmouth.
ECACHL Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats St. Lawrence.
ECACHL Championship game: Clarkson defeats Quinnipiac.
ECACHL Consolation game: Dartmouth defeats St. Lawrence.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats Boston College.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Massachusetts defeats New Hampshire.
Hockey East Championship game: Massachusetts defeats Boston University.
WCHA Semifinal #2: St. Cloud State defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats Michigan Tech.
WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats St. Cloud State.
WCHA Consolation game: North Dakota defeats Michigan Tech.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Army defeats Connecticut.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Sacred Heart defeats Air Force.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Sacred Heart defeats Army.
More Hope For Michigan Tech
From Tim Braun, another combination of wins and losses to get Michigan Tech into the NCAA tournament even after losing to Wisconsin. He speculates, “I think the keys are Air Force not winning a game, Clarkson winning the ECAC and Lake State/Wisconsin not winning their tournaments.”
Having initially input the data wrong, I can also vouch that St. Cloud State losing to Wisconsin in the WCHA third-place game is a necessity to make this particular scenario work.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Notre Dame defeats Lake Superior.
CCHA Championship game: Notre Dame defeats Michigan.
CCHA Consolation game: Lake Superior defeats Michigan State.
ECACHL Semifinal #2: Clarkson defeats Dartmouth.
ECACHL Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats St. Lawrence.
ECACHL Championship game: Clarkson defeats Quinnipiac.
ECACHL Consolation game: Dartmouth defeats St. Lawrence.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston College defeats Boston University.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: New Hampshire defeats Massachusetts.
Hockey East Championship game: New Hampshire defeats Boston College.
WCHA Semifinal #2: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats Minnesota.
WCHA Consolation game: Wisconsin defeats St. Cloud State.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Army defeats Connecticut.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Sacred Heart defeats Air Force.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Sacred Heart defeats Army.
Every Game Matters
Here’s a lesson in how seemingly-unrelated results can impact the NCAA tournament. Thursday afternoon, Matt Frost sent in a scenario under which Dartmouth edged Maine out of the field of 16 by winning a head-to-head comparison thanks to a .0001 difference in RPI.
That assumed a Michigan Tech win Thursday, but re-running Matt’s setup with the actual Wisconsin victory, we find out that Maine now wins that same Dartmouth comparison by less than .0001!
Both teams show up at .5371 in the PairWise Predictor’s RPI numbers, but Maine wins when more decimal places are carried out — therefore keeping Dartmouth out after all. All because of the WCHA play-in result a thousand miles away.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Notre Dame defeats Lake Superior.
CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Notre Dame.
CCHA Consolation game: Michigan State defeats Lake Superior.
ECACHL Semifinal #2: Dartmouth defeats Clarkson.
ECACHL Semifinal #1: St. Lawrence defeats Quinnipiac.
ECACHL Championship game: St. Lawrence defeats Dartmouth.
ECACHL Consolation game: Clarkson defeats Quinnipiac.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats Boston College.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: New Hampshire defeats Massachusetts.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston University defeats New Hampshire.
WCHA Semifinal #2: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats Minnesota.
WCHA Consolation game: St. Cloud State defeats Wisconsin.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Army defeats Connecticut.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Sacred Heart defeats Air Force.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Sacred Heart defeats Army.
