Let’s put the bracket prediction down first, and then we’ll explain how we got there after that.
My predicted NCAA tournament bracket is as follows:
East Regional (Bridgeport, Conn.)
16 Air Force vs. 1 Yale
9 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 8 Union
Northeast Regional (Manchester, N.H.)
13 New Hampshire vs. 4 Miami
11 Notre Dame vs. 6 Merrimack
Midwest Regional (Green Bay, Wis.)
15 Rensselaer vs. 2 North Dakota
10 Western Michigan vs. 7 Denver
West Regional (St. Louis)
14 Colorado College vs. 3 Boston College
12 Nebraska-Omaha vs. 5 Michigan
How did we get there?
Here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the other autobids that are not in the Top 16:
1 Yale
2 North Dakota
3 Boston College
4 Miami
5t Michigan
5t Merrimack
7 Denver
8 Union
9 Minnesota-Duluth
10 Western Michigan
11 Notre Dame
12 Nebraska-Omaha
13t New Hampshire
13t Colorado College
13t Rensselaer
16 Dartmouth
22 Air Force
Autobids:
Atlantic Hockey: Air Force
CCHA: Miami
ECAC Hockey: Yale
Hockey East: Boston College
WCHA: North Dakota
Step one
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add any autobids not in the top 16 of the PairWise. The only team that is not is Air Force.
We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.
Therefore the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 Yale
2 North Dakota
3 Boston College
4 Miami
5 Michigan
6 Merrimack
7 Denver
8 Union
9 Minnesota-Duluth
10 Western Michigan
11 Notre Dame
12 Nebraska-Omaha
13 New Hampshire
14 Colorado College
15 Rensselaer
16 Air Force
Step two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 seeds — Yale, North Dakota, Boston College, Miami
No. 2 seeds — Michigan, Merrimack, Denver, Union
No. 3 seeds — Minnesota-Duluth, Western Michigan, Notre Dame, Nebraska-Omaha
No. 4 seeds — New Hampshire, Colorado College, Rensselaer, Air Force
Step three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals. Following the guidelines, there is one host team in this grouping, Yale, so Yale must be placed in its home regional, the East Regional in Bridgeport.
We now place the other No. 1 seeds based on proximity to the regional sites.
No. 1 Yale is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport.
No. 2 North Dakota is placed in the Midwest Regional in Green Bay.
No. 3 Boston College is placed in the Northeast Regional in Manchester.
No. 4 Miami is placed in the West Regional in St. Louis.
Step Four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding.
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.
So therefore:
No. 2 seeds
No. 8 Union is placed in No. 1 Yale’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 7 Denver is placed in No. 2 North Dakota’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 6 Merrimack is placed in No. 3 Boston College’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 5 Michigan is placed in No. 4 Miami’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 3 seeds
Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16, another with 2, 7, 10, 15, another with 3, 6, 11, 14 and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
Therefore:
No. 9 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in No. 8 Union’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 10 Western Michigan is placed in No. 7 Denver’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 11 Notre Dame is placed in No. 6 Merrimack’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 12 Nebraska-Omaha is placed in No. 5 Michigan’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 4 seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc. But we have to place New Hampshire first as a host school.
No. 13 New Hampshire is sent to No. 3 Boston College’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 16 Air Force is sent to No. 1 Yale’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 15 Rensselaer is sent to No. 2 North Dakota’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 14 Colorado College is sent to No. 4 Miami’s regional, the West Regional.
The brackets as we have set them up:
West Regional (St. Louis):
14 Colorado College vs. 4 Miami
12 Nebraska-Omaha vs. 5 Michigan
Midwest Regional (Green Bay):
15 Rensselaer vs. 2 North Dakota
10 Western Michigan vs. 7 Denver
East Regional (Bridgeport):
16 Air Force vs. 1 Yale
9 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 8 Union
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 New Hampshire vs. 3 Boston College
11 Notre Dame vs. 6 Merrimack
Our first concern is avoiding intra-conference matchups. We have one, UNH and BC.
Since UNH is a host school, we have to move BC.
So we swap BC with Miami.
West Regional (St. Louis):
14 Colorado College vs. 3 Boston College
12 Nebraska-Omaha vs. 5 Michigan
Midwest Regional (Green Bay):
15 Rensselaer vs. 2 North Dakota
10 Western Michigan vs. 7 Denver
East Regional (Bridgeport):
16 Air Force vs. 1 Yale
9 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 8 Union
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 New Hampshire vs. 4 Miami
11 Notre Dame vs. 6 Merrimack
And that’s where we’re at.
We’ll see what the committee comes out with on Sunday.
