Welcome to the next installment of our Bracketology, and we’ll keep bringing you a new one every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced.
If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here.
Here are the facts:
• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.
• There are four regional sites (East — Bridgeport, Conn.; Northeast — Worcester, Mass.; Midwest — Green Bay, Wis.; West — St. Paul, Minn.)
• A host institution which is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host, and cannot be moved. There are four host institutions this year: Yale in Bridgeport, Holy Cross in Worcester, Michigan Tech in Green Bay and Minnesota in St. Paul.
• Seedings will not be switched, as opposed to years past. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, per a meeting of the championship committee:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts including competitive equity, financial success and likelihood of playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For the model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
• The top four teams as ranked by the committee are the four No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals.
• Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.
• No. 1 seeds are placed as close to home as possible in order of their ranking 1-4.
• Conference matchups in first round are avoided, unless five or more teams from one conference are selected, then the integrity of the bracket will be preserved.
• Once the five automatic qualifiers and 11 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s ranking of 1-16. The top four teams are the No. 1 seeds. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds. These groupings will be referred to as “bands”.
Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the conference leaders (through all games of Feb. 7, 2012):
1 Boston University
2t Michigan
2t Massachusetts-Lowell
4 Ferris State
5 Minnesota-Duluth
6 Boston College
7t Minnesota
7t Merrimack
9 Maine
10t Notre Dame
10t Union
12 Ohio State
13t Michigan State
13t Northern Michigan
15t North Dakota
15t Colorado College
— Air Force
Here are the current conference leaders based on winning percentage:
Atlantic Hockey: Air Force
CCHA: Ferris State
ECAC Hockey: Union
Hockey East: Massachusetts-Lowell
WCHA: Minnesota
Notes
• Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played. i.e., the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.
• Because there are an uneven amount of games played inside each conference, I will be using winning percentage, not points accumulated, to determine who the current leader in each conference is. This team is my assumed conference tournament champion.
Step one
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at how the teams rank in the Ratings Percentage Index, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only team that is not is Air Force.
From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.
The ties and bubbles consist of Michigan and Massachusetts-Lowell at 2, Minnesota and Merrimack at 7, Notre Dame and Union at 11, Michigan State and Northern Michigan at 13 and North Dakota and Colorado College at 15.
We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.
Therefore the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, and adding in any conference leaders not already in the Top 16, are:
1 Boston University
2 Michigan
3 Massachusetts-Lowell
4 Ferris State
5 Minnesota-Duluth
6 Boston College
7 Minnesota
8 Merrimack
9 Maine
10 Notre Dame
11 Union
12 Ohio State
13 Michigan State
14 Northern Michigan
15 North Dakota
16 Air Force
Step two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 seeds — Boston University, Michigan, Massachusetts-Lowell, Ferris State
No. 2 seeds — Minnesota-Duluth, Boston College, Minnesota, Merrimack
No. 3 seeds — Maine, Notre Dame, Union, Ohio State
No. 4 seeds — Michigan State, Northern Michigan, North Dakota, Air Force
Step three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.
No. 1 Boston University is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester.
No. 2 Michigan is placed in the Midwest Regional in Green Bay.
No. 3 Massachusetts-Lowell is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport.
No. 4 Ferris State is placed in the West Regional in St. Paul.
Step four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.
But we have to place Minnesota first, as it is a host institution.
So therefore:
No. 2 seeds
No. 7 Minnesota is placed in No. 4 Ferris State’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 8 Merrimack is placed in No. 1 Boston University’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 6 Boston College is placed in No. 2 Michigan’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 5 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in No. 3 Massachusetts-Lowell’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 3 seeds
Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16, another with 2, 7, 10, 15, another with 3, 6, 11, 14 and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
No. 9 Maine is placed in No. 8 Merrimack’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 10 Notre Dame is placed in No. 7 Minnesota’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 11 Union is placed in No. 6 Boston College’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 12 Ohio State is placed in No. 5 Minnesota-Duluth’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 4 seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.
No. 13 Michigan State is sent to No. 4 Ferris State’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 16 Air Force is sent to No. 1 Boston University’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 14 Northern Michigan is sent to No. 3 Massachusetts-Lowell’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 15 North Dakota is sent to No. 2 Michigan’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
The brackets as we have set them up:
West Regional:
Michigan State vs. Ferris State
Notre Dame vs. Minnesota
Midwest Regional:
North Dakota vs. Michigan
Union vs. Boston College
Northeast Regional:
Air Force vs. Boston University
Maine vs. Merrimack
East Regional:
Northern Michigan vs. Massachusetts-Lowell
Ohio State vs. Minnesota-Duluth
Our first concern is avoiding intra-conference matchups. We have some for sure in Michigan State vs. Ferris State and Maine vs. Merrimack.
Let’s start with Michigan State vs. Ferris State.
Michigan State must be moved, but it can only be moved to play Boston University or Massachusetts-Lowell. The lower of the two seeds is Massachusetts-Lowell, so therefore we move Michigan State to a matchup versus Massachusetts-Lowell.
But now, we have to figure out where to put Northern Michigan. We can only have Northern Michigan play Boston University. So, as the rules go, we place Northern Michigan against Boston University. And in turn, Air Force then goes to play Michigan, as we want the lower overall seed playing the highest overall seed whenever possible. And in turn, North Dakota moves to a matchup against Ferris State.
So after that swapping around, considering the intra-conference rules and bringing in the high-low concept, we have:
West Regional:
North Dakota vs. Ferris State
Notre Dame vs. Minnesota
Midwest Regional:
Air Force vs. Michigan
Union vs. Boston College
Northeast Regional:
Northern Michigan vs. Boston University
Maine vs. Merrimack
East Regional:
Michigan State vs. Massachusetts-Lowell
Ohio State vs. Minnesota-Duluth
Now we have to take care of the second intra-conference matchup, Maine vs. Merrimack.
Maine can play either Minnesota or Minnesota-Duluth. Maine is the No. 9 overall seed, so again, going with the high-low concept, we swap Maine with Notre Dame, to create less of a bracket integrity gap.
West Regional:
North Dakota vs. Ferris State
Maine vs. Minnesota
Midwest Regional:
Air Force vs. Michigan
Union vs. Boston College
Northeast Regional:
Northern Michigan vs. Boston University
Notre Dame vs. Merrimack
East Regional:
Michigan State vs. Massachusetts-Lowell
Ohio State vs. Minnesota-Duluth
We now have a bracket that does not have any intra-conference matchups.
Can we make it better?
Week in and week out we say that attendance is always a concern.
Last week I didn’t really want to move any matchups that broke bracket integrity. I sacrificed some attendance for the integrity.
This week though, I may have to sacrifice bracket integrity for attendance.
What am I talking about?
Swapping the matchups of Union vs. Boston College and Ohio State vs. Minnesota-Duluth.
By swapping these two games and locations, you immediately get an attendance boost at both locations. Union vs. Boston College is now in Bridgeport, which now would feature three Eastern teams rather than three Western teams. And Ohio State vs. Minnesota-Duluth would increase attendance in Green Bay, drawing the UMD and OSU crowds.
In comparison to last week, when there would only be a slight boost in attendance, in this case I think there is a guarantee of a larger attendance boost.
Therefore, if I were the committee, I would make that change in a heartbeat.
So the bracket is now:
West Regional:
North Dakota vs. Ferris State
Maine vs. Minnesota
Midwest Regional:
Air Force vs. Michigan
Ohio State vs. Minnesota-Duluth
Northeast Regional:
Northern Michigan vs. Boston University
Notre Dame vs. Merrimack
East Regional:
Michigan State vs. Massachusetts-Lowell
Union vs. Boston College
This is how things can change from week to week where one factor might be more important than another factor, but it will change depending on how the PairWise shakes out.
So that is it. My bracket for the week.
See you here next week for the next Bracketology.
Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.
This week’s brackets
St. Paul
15 North Dakota vs. 4 Ferris State
9 Maine vs. 7 Minnesota
Green Bay
16 Air Force vs. 2 Michigan
12 Ohio State vs. 5 Minnesota-Duluth
Bridgeport
13 Michigan State vs. 3 Massachusetts-Lowell
11 Union vs. 6 Boston College
Worcester
14 Northern Michigan vs. 1 Boston University
10 Notre Dame vs. 8 Merrimack
Conference breakdowns
CCHA — 6
HEA — 5
WCHA — 3
ECAC — 1
AHA — 1
On the move
In: Michigan State, Air Force
Out: Miami, Rochester Institute of Technology
Attendance woes?
I am quite comfortable with what I’ve done.
Last week’s brackets
St. Paul
16 RIT vs. 1 Minnesota-Duluth
9 Minnesota vs. 8 Michigan
Green Bay
14 Denver vs. 4 Ferris State
12 Notre Dame vs. 5 Boston College
Bridgeport
13 Northern Michigan vs. 3 Massachusetts-Lowell
11 Miami vs. 6 Merrimack
Worcester
15 Union vs. 2 Boston University
10 Maine vs. 7 Ohio State
Interesting …
• Michigan Tech and Wisconsin are hovering right below the .5000 RPI line. Some wins there and it could get interesting on the bubble for some teams from the WCHA.
