One of the most prominent questions from college hockey coaches and fans alike in the wake of the NCAA’s announcement of changes to the selection criteria for the national tournament has been about the real-world implications.
Would the 2013 tournament field look different if it had been selected using the new set of criteria?
In terms of which teams earned at-large bids? No.
Committee chair Jim Knowlton of Rensselaer said the Division I Men’s Ice Hockey Committee used a number of analyses to determine how to adjust the selection criteria, which we represent here as the PairWise Rankings.
We asked to see how last season would have looked in the 2013-14 formula, and the NCAA agreed to release that information, which we’re including below.
The field would include the same 16 teams, although six of them would have different seeds:
• Minnesota State and North Dakota would have flipped seeds, with the Mavericks a No. 2 seed and UND in the No. 3 band.
• Wisconsin and Yale would have moved into No. 3 seeds, bumping Niagara and Denver to No. 4 seeds.
The top five spots in the PairWise are identical in each algorithm.
Here’s the NCAA’s representation of the 2012-13 season in the 2013-14 criteria (sorry in advance about the formatting; I’m working on that):
Rank Team Record PWCs RPI RK ------------------------------------------------- 1 Quinnipiac 27- 7- 5 58- 0 | 57.06 1 2 Minnesota 26- 8- 5 57- 1 | 56.70 2 3 *UMass Lowell 26-10- 2 55- 3 | 56.06 3 4 *Notre Dame 25-12- 3 55- 3 | 54.98 4 5 Miami 24-11- 5 53- 5 | 54.89 5 6 New Hampshire 19-11- 7 53- 5 | 54.48 6 7 Boston College 22-11- 4 52- 6 | 54.44 7 8 Minnesota State 24-13- 3 50- 8 | 54.28 8 9 North Dakota 21-12- 7 49- 9 | 54.15 9 10 *Union 21-12- 5 49- 9 | 53.89 10 11 *Wisconsin 22-12- 7 48-10 | 53.83 12 12 Yale 18-12- 3 46-12 | 53.63 14 13 Niagara 23- 9- 5 45-13 | 53.86 11 14 Denver 20-13- 5 45-13 | 53.81 13 15 St Cloud 23-15- 1 43-15 | 53.62 15 16 Western Michigan 19-11- 8 43-15 | 53.18 16 17 Providence 17-14- 7 43-15 | 52.87 17 18 Rensselaer 18-14- 5 41-17 | 52.49 18 19 Boston University 21-16- 2 40-18 | 52.36 19 20 Colorado College 18-19- 5 39-19 | 52.25 20 21 Brown 16-14- 6 37-21 | 51.78 21 22 Cornell 15-16- 3 37-21 | 51.46 22 23 Ferris State 16-16- 5 36-22 | 51.12 23 24 Robert Morris 20-14- 4 35-23 | 51.11 24 25 Dartmouth 15-14- 5 35-23 | 51.05 25 26 St Lawrence 18-16- 4 32-26 | 50.99 26 27 Ohio State 16-17- 7 32-26 | 50.85 27 28 Nebraska Omaha 19-18- 2 31-27 | 50.79 28 29 Alaska 17-16- 4 31-27 | 50.64 29 30 Michigan 18-19- 3 28-30 | 50.46 30 31 Holy Cross 20-14- 3 28-30 | 50.06 31 32 Northern Michigan 15-19- 4 28-30 | 50.01 32 33 Merrimack 15-17- 6 26-32 | 49.98 33 34 Air Force 17-13- 7 26-32 | 49.91 34 35 Connecticut 19-14- 4 24-34 | 49.80 35 36 Mercyhurst 19-17- 5 23-35 | 49.63 36 37 Bowling Green 15-21- 5 23-35 | 49.39 37 38 *Canisius 19-18- 5 21-37 | 49.19 38 39 Colgate 14-18- 4 21-37 | 49.03 39 40 Minnesota Duluth 14-19- 5 19-39 | 48.78 40 41 Penn State 11-12- 0 18-40 | 48.77 41 42 Maine 11-19- 8 16-42 | 48.43 42 43 Lake Superior 17-21- 1 16-42 | 48.42 43 44 Michigan Tech 13-20- 4 16-42 | 48.25 44 45 Michigan State 14-25- 3 15-43 | 48.08 45 46 Vermont 11-19- 6 14-44 | 48.04 46 47 Princeton 10-16- 5 12-46 | 47.96 47 48 RIT 15-18- 5 11-47 | 47.90 48 49 Massachusetts 12-19- 3 11-47 | 47.90 49 50 Clarkson 9-20- 7 9-49 | 47.29 50 51 Harvard 10-19- 3 8-50 | 47.21 51 52 American Int'l 12-17- 6 7-51 | 46.56 52 53 Northeastern 9-21- 4 6-52 | 45.49 53 54 Bentley 12-20- 3 5-53 | 45.06 54 55 Bemidji State 6-22- 8 4-54 | 44.58 55 56 Alaska-Anchorage 4-25- 7 3-55 | 43.56 56 57 Army 7-22- 5 2-56 | 42.60 57 58 Alabama-Huntsville 1-20- 1 1-57 | 38.38 58 59 Sacred Heart 2-30- 4 0-58 | 38.18 59
You can see how last year’s PairWise and NCAA tournament actually shook out in this edition of Bracketology.
The order of teams from last year’s PairWise was:
1 Quinnipiac
2 Minnesota
3 Massachusetts-Lowell
4 Notre Dame
5 Miami
6 Boston College
7 New Hampshire
8 North Dakota
9 Denver
10 Niagara
11 Minnesota State
12 Union
13 St. Cloud State
14 Wisconsin
15 Yale
16 Canisius
Canisius, of course, was the Atlantic Hockey tournament champion and received an automatic bid.
Is the change worth much if it produces the same result in terms of deciding which teams get at-large bids? The committee wanted to be cautious about changes because of the new conference landscape and not yet knowing how that would impact things, but this could be considered overcautious.
But I guess we’ll have to let it play out and see what happens.
