It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style. It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament will wind up come selection time.
It’s a look into what are the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.
This will be the last Bracketology until we make our final picks before the field is announced on Sunday.
Those of you that are veterans of the college hockey scene know that it is all about the PairWise Rankings. This is USCHO’s numerical approach that simulates the way the NCAA Division I men’s ice hockey committee chooses the teams that make the NCAA tournament.
Since USCHO began the PairWise Rankings, we have correctly identified all of the teams that have been selected to the NCAA tournament.
I am the only prognosticator to have correctly predicted the exact brackets for the NCAA tournament in four of the last five years, meaning that I have predicted how the committee thought when putting together the brackets.
This is not a be-all, end-all analysis of the bracket. I am trying to give you, the reader, an idea of what the committee might be thinking and not exactly what they are thinking.
If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here.
Here are the facts:
• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.
• There are four regional sites (East — Albany, N.Y.; Northeast — Worcester, Mass.; Midwest — Cincinnati; West — St. Paul, Minn.).
• A host institution that is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host and cannot be moved. There are four host institutions this year: Union in Albany, Holy Cross in Worcester, Miami in Cincinnati and Minnesota in St. Paul.
• Seedings will not be switched. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intraconference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, from the 2016 pre-championship manual:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts, including competitive equity, financial success and the likelihood of a playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For this model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
1. Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s rankings of 1-16. The top four teams are No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds.
2. Step two is to place the home teams. Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.
3. Step three is to fill in the bracket so that first-round conference matchups are avoided, unless it corrupts the integrity of the bracket. If five or more teams from one conference are selected to the championship, then the integrity of the bracket will be protected (i.e., maintaining the pairing process according to seed will take priority over avoidance of first-round conference matchups). To complete each regional, the committee assigns one team from each of the remaining seeded groups so there is a No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 seed at each regional site.
Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the highest remaining seed in the conference playoffs through all games as of March 16:
1 North Dakota
2 Quinnipiac
3 St. Cloud State
4 Providence
5 Boston College
6t Denver
6t Michigan
8t Massachusetts-Lowell
8t Boston University
10 Yale
11 Harvard
12 Notre Dame
13 Minnesota-Duluth
14 Northeastern
15 Michigan Tech
16 Cornell
17t Minnesota
19t Robert Morris
Current highest remaining seeds remaining in conference tournaments:
Atlantic Hockey: Robert Morris
Big Ten: Minnesota
ECAC Hockey: Quinnipiac
Hockey East: Boston College
NCHC: North Dakota
WCHA: Michigan Tech
Notes
• Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played — i.e., the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.
• The highest seed remaining in its conference tournament is my assumed conference tournament champion and recipient of the automatic bid.
Step one
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only teams that are not are Minnesota and Robert Morris.
From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.
The ties and bubbles consist of Denver and Michigan, and Massachusetts-Lowell and Boston University.
We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.
Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 North Dakota
2 Quinnipiac
3 St. Cloud State
4 Providence
5 Boston College
6 Denver
7 Michigan
8 Massachusetts-Lowell
9 Boston University
10 Yale
11 Harvard
12 Notre Dame
13 Minnesota-Duluth
14 Michigan Tech
15 Minnesota
16 Robert Morris
Step two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 seeds: North Dakota, Quinnipiac, St. Cloud State, Providence
No. 2 seeds: Boston College, Denver, Michigan, Massachusetts-Lowell
No. 3 seeds: Boston University, Yale, Harvard, Notre Dame
No. 4 seeds: Minnesota-Duluth, Michigan Tech, Minnesota, Robert Morris
Step three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.
No. 1 North Dakota is placed in the West Regional in St. Paul.
No. 2 Quinnipiac is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester.
No. 3 St. Cloud State is placed in the Midwest Regional in Cincinnati.
No. 4 Providence is placed in the East Regional in Albany.
Step four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.
So therefore:
No. 2 seeds
No. 8 Massachusetts-Lowell is placed in No. 1 North Dakota’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 7 Michigan is placed in No. 2 Quinnipiac’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 6 Denver is placed in No. 3 St. Cloud State’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 5 Boston College is placed in No. 4 Providence’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 3 seeds
Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16; another with 2, 7, 10 and 15; another with 3, 6, 11 and 14; and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
No. 9 Boston University is placed in No. 8 Massachusetts-Lowell’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 10 Yale is placed in No. 7 Michigan’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 11 Harvard is placed in No. 6 Denver’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 12 Notre Dame is placed in No. 5 Boston College’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 4 seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.
Since Minnesota is a host institution, we must place Minnesota in the West Regional.
No. 15 Minnesota is sent to No. 1 North Dakota’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 16 Robert Morris is sent to No. 2 Quinnipiac’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 14 Michigan Tech is sent to No. 3 St. Cloud State’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 13 Minnesota-Duluth is sent to No. 4 Providence’s regional, the East Regional.
The brackets as we have set them up:
East Regional (Albany):
13 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 4 Providence
12 Notre Dame vs. 5 Boston College
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
16 Robert Morris vs. 2 Quinnipiac
10 Yale vs 7 Michigan
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
14 Michigan Tech vs. 3 St. Cloud State
11 Harvard vs. 6 Denver
West Regional (St. Paul):
15 Minnesota vs. 1 North Dakota
9 Boston University vs. 8 Massachusetts-Lowell
Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have Boston University vs. Massachusetts-Lowell and Notre Dame vs. Boston College.
In that 2 vs. 3 bracket, we have two Hockey East teams in both the 2 and 3 seeds. Thus, we have to match it so that they don’t play each other.
One thing we can do is have the two Hockey East 2 seeds in the East and the 2 non-Hockey East teams in the 3 seeding band play them.
Therefore, our matchups will be based upon highest seed vs. lowest seed for one and then the other one falls in.
Boston College will play Harvard and Massachusetts-Lowell will play Yale.
We leave BC where it is, and move Massachusetts-Lowell to Worcester.
Why is this? We have bracket integrity at the possible 4 vs. 5 in the next round.
Then we move Notre Dame vs. Michigan in Cincinnati based upon attendance.
That leaves Boston University vs Denver in St. Paul.
East Regional (Albany):
13 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 4 Providence
11 Harvard vs. 5 Boston College
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
16 Robert Morris vs. 2 Quinnipiac
10 Yale vs 8 Massachusetts-Lowell
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
14 Michigan Tech vs. 3 St. Cloud State
12 Notre Dame vs. 7 Michigan
West Regional (St. Paul):
15 Minnesota vs. 1 North Dakota
9 Boston University vs. 6 Denver
And there you go.
A whole slew of games this weekend to determine positioning and a few possible at-large bids.
Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.
This week’s brackets
East Regional (Albany):
13 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 4 Providence
11 Harvard vs. 5 Boston College
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
16 Robert Morris vs. 2 Quinnipiac
10 Yale vs 8 Massachusetts-Lowell
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
14 Michigan Tech vs. 3 St. Cloud State
12 Notre Dame vs. 7 Michigan
West Regional (St. Paul):
15 Minnesota vs. 1 North Dakota
9 Boston University vs. 6 Denver
Conference breakdowns
Hockey East — 5
NCHC — 4
ECAC Hockey — 3
Big Ten — 2
WCHA — 1
Atlantic Hockey — 1
On the move
In: None
Out: None
Attendance woes?
Cincinnati is looking a little better this week.
Last week’s brackets
East Regional (Albany):
13 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 4 Providence
11 Harvard vs. 5 Boston College
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
16 Robert Morris vs. 2 Quinnipiac
9 Boston University vs 7 Yale
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
14 Michigan Tech vs. 3 St. Cloud State
10 Notre Dame vs. 8 Michigan
West Regional (St. Paul):
15 Minnesota vs. 1 North Dakota
12 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 6 Denver
