We’re at that time of the year where one thing is on everyone’s minds.
Will my team make the NCAA tournament? Where does it sit in the PairWise Rankings (PWR)?
Those of you that are veterans of the college hockey scene know that it is all about the PairWise Rankings. This is USCHO’s numerical approach that simulates the way the NCAA Division I men’s ice hockey committee chooses the teams that make the NCAA tournament.
Since USCHO began the PairWise Rankings, we have correctly identified all of the teams that have been selected to the NCAA tournament.
Five of the last six years, I am the only prognosticator to have correctly predicted the exact brackets for the NCAA tournament, meaning that I have predicted how the committee thought when putting together the brackets.
With that in mind, it’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style. It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament might look like come selection time, using what we know now.
It’s a look into the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.
This is not a be-all, end-all analysis of the bracket. I am trying to give you, the reader, an idea of what the committee might be thinking and not exactly what they are thinking.
This is the next installment of Bracketology for 2017, and we’ll be bringing you a new one every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced on March 19.
If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here.
Here are the facts:
• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.
• There are four regional sites (East – Providence, R.I.; Northeast – Manchester, N.H.; Midwest – Cincinnati, Ohio; West – Fargo, N.D.).
• A host institution that is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host and cannot be moved. The host institutions this year: Brown in Providence, New Hampshire in Manchester, Miami in Cincinnati and North Dakota in Fargo.
• Seedings will not be switched. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, from the 2015 pre-championship manual:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts, including competitive equity, financial success and the likelihood of a playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For this model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
1. Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s rankings of 1-16. The top four teams are No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds.
2. Step two is to place the home teams. Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.
3. Step three is to fill in the bracket so that first-round conference matchups are avoided, unless it corrupts the integrity of the bracket. If five or more teams from one conference are selected to the championship, then the integrity of the bracket will be protected (i.e., maintaining the pairing process according to seed will take priority over avoidance of first-round conference matchups). To complete each regional, the committee assigns one team from each of the remaining seeded groups so there is a No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 seed at each regional site.
Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the conference leaders or No. 1 seeds in their tournament through all games of Feb. 28:
1 Denver
2 Minnesota-Duluth
3 Harvard
4 Minnesota
5 Western Michigan
6 Massachusetts-Lowell
7 Boston University
8 Union
9 Penn State
10t Cornell
10t Notre Dame
12 Providence
13 Wisconsin
14 St. Cloud State
15 Ohio State
16 North Dakota
24 Bemidji State
25 Canisius
Current conference leaders based on winning percentage or as the No. 1 seed in its respective tournament:
Atlantic Hockey: Canisius
Big Ten: Minnesota
ECAC Hockey: Harvard
Hockey East: Massachusetts-Lowell
NCHC: Denver
WCHA: Bemidji State
Notes
• Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played — i.e., the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.
• Because there are an uneven amount of games played inside each conference, I will be using winning percentage, not points accumulated, to determine the current leader in each conference. This team is my assumed conference tournament champion after applying the tiebreakers.
• For conferences where the regular season has concluded, I have taken the number one seed in that conference’s tournament as the assumed conference tournament champion.
Step one
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders or number one seeds in the conference tournaments that are not currently in the top 16. The only teams that are not are Bemidji State and Canisius.
From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.
The ties and bubbles consist of Cornell and Notre Dame this week.
We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.
Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 Denver
2 Minnesota-Duluth
3 Harvard
4 Minnesota
5 Western Michigan
6 Massachusetts-Lowell
7 Boston University
8 Union
9 Penn State
10 Cornell
11 Notre Dame
12 Providence
13 Wisconsin
14 St. Cloud State
15 Bemidji State
16 Canisius
But wait a moment!
The NCAA Ice Hockey Championships Manual clearly states on Page 13, Section 2-3 that:
“To be considered during the at-large selection process, a team must have an overall won-lost record of .500 or better. ”
If we take a closer look, St. Cloud State currently has a record of 15-16-1. Therefore, it is ineligible to be considered for an at-large berth.
Therefore, Ohio State takes the 14th spot.
Now, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 Denver
2 Minnesota-Duluth
3 Harvard
4 Minnesota
5 Western Michigan
6 Massachusetts-Lowell
7 Boston University
8 Union
9 Penn State
10 Cornell
11 Notre Dame
12 Providence
13 Wisconsin
14 Ohio State
15 Bemidji State
16 Canisius
Step two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 seeds: Denver, Minnesota-Duluth, Harvard, Minnesota
No. 2 seeds: Western Michigan, Massachusetts-Lowell, Boston University, Union,
No. 3 seeds: Penn State, Cornell, Notre Dame, Providence
No. 4 seeds: Wisconsin, Ohio State, Bemidji State, Canisius
Step three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.
No. 1 Denver is placed in the West Regional in Fargo
No. 2 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in the Midwest Regional in Cincinnati.
No. 3 Harvard is placed in the East Regional in Providence.
No. 4 Minnesota is placed in the Northeast Regional in Manchester.
Step four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.
So therefore:
No. 2 seeds
No. 8 Union is placed in No. 1 Denver’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 7 Boston University is placed in No. 2 Minnesota-Duluth’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 6 Massachusetts-Lowell is placed in No. 3 Harvard’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 5 Western Michigan is placed in No. 4 Minnesota’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 3 seeds
Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16; another with 2, 7, 10 and 15; another with 3, 6, 11 and 14; and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
No. 9 Penn State is placed in No. 8 Union’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 10 Cornell is placed in No. 7 Boston University’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 11 Notre Dame is placed in No. 6 Massachusetts-Lowell’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 12 Providence is placed in No. 5 Western Michigan’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 4 seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.
No. 16 Canisius is sent to No. 1 Denver’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 15 Bemidji State is sent to No. 2 Minnesota-Duluth’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 14 Ohio State is sent to No. 3 Harvard’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 13 Wisconsin is sent to No. 4 Minnesota’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
The brackets as we have set them up:
East Regional (Providence):
14 Ohio State vs. 3 Harvard
11 Notre Dame vs. 6 Massachusetts-Lowell
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Wisconsin vs. 4 Minnesota
12 Providence vs. 5 Western Michigan
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
15 Bemidji State vs. 2 Minnesota-Duluth
10 Cornell vs. 7 Boston University
West Regional (Fargo):
16 Canisius vs. 1 Denver
9 Penn State vs. 8 Union
Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have Wisconsin-Minnesota and Notre Dame-Massachusetts-Lowell.
We can’t swap Wisconsin with Ohio State. Which means that we have to have either Wisconsin or Ohio State play Minnesota-Duluth.
Since Ohio State is the lower seed, it will move to play Minnesota-Duluth and in turn Wisconsin will get swapped to play Harvard. That means that Bemidji State now plays Minnesota.
East Regional (Providence):
13 Wisconsin vs. 3 Harvard
11 Notre Dame vs. 6 Massachusetts-Lowell
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
15 Bemidji State vs. 4 Minnesota
12 Providence vs. 5 Western Michigan
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
14 Ohio State vs. 2 Minnesota-Duluth
10 Cornell vs. 7 Boston University
West Regional (Fargo):
16 Canisius vs. 1 Denver
9 Penn State vs. 8 Union
We swap Notre Dame and Penn State.
East Regional (Providence):
13 Wisconsin vs. 3 Harvard
9 Penn State vs. 6 Massachusetts-Lowell
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
15 Bemidji State vs. 4 Minnesota
12 Providence vs. 5 Western Michigan
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
14 Ohio State vs. 2 Minnesota-Duluth
10 Cornell vs. 7 Boston University
West Regional (Fargo):
16 Canisius vs. 1 Denver
11 Notre Dame vs. 8 Union
OK, now we have the intraconference matchups out of the way. Time to look at maximizing attendance.
We would like Providence in Providence. There is a big precedent for this, as it has been done in the past, even though Providence is not the host school.
In order to get Providence to Providence, I need to move UMass-Lowell.
So I swap the matchups.
East Regional (Providence):
13 Wisconsin vs. 3 Harvard
12 Providence vs. 5 Western Michigan
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
15 Bemidji State vs. 4 Minnesota
9 Penn State vs. 6 Massachusetts-Lowell
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
14 Ohio State vs. 2 Minnesota-Duluth
10 Cornell vs. 7 Boston University
West Regional (Fargo):
16 Canisius vs. 1 Denver
11 Notre Dame vs. 8 Union
OK, what’s next? I am worried about Manchester at the moment, with only one Eastern school there. Thus, I will swap matchups again.
East Regional (Providence):
13 Wisconsin vs. 3 Harvard
12 Providence vs. 5 Western Michigan
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
15 Bemidji State vs. 4 Minnesota
10 Cornell vs. 7 Boston University
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
14 Ohio State vs. 2 Minnesota-Duluth
9 Penn State vs. 6 Massachusetts-Lowell
West Regional (Fargo):
16 Canisius vs. 1 Denver
11 Notre Dame vs. 8 Union
Is there anything else we can do? We can bring Union to Providence. So we make a swap.
East Regional (Providence):
13 Wisconsin vs. 3 Harvard
12 Providence vs. 8 Union
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
15 Bemidji State vs. 4 Minnesota
10 Cornell vs. 7 Boston University
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
14 Ohio State vs. 2 Minnesota-Duluth
9 Penn State vs. 6 Massachusetts-Lowell
West Regional (Fargo):
16 Canisius vs. 1 Denver
11 Notre Dame vs. 5 Western Michigan
One more swap. I swap the Penn State-Lowell and Notre Dame-WMU games. The reasoning? It’s closer for both Notre Dame and Western Michigan.
East Regional (Providence):
13 Wisconsin vs. 3 Harvard
12 Providence vs. 8 Union
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
15 Bemidji State vs. 4 Minnesota
10 Cornell vs. 7 Boston University
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
14 Ohio State vs. 2 Minnesota-Duluth
11 Notre Dame vs. 5 Western Michigan
West Regional (Fargo):
16 Canisius vs. 1 Denver
9 Penn State vs. 6 Massachusetts-Lowell
And I think that’s what the committee is going to do. A lot of people will cry foul — it’s a lot of moving, who cares about bracket integrity, etc. But when you look at past history, it comes down to attendance and it doesn’t matter where the seeds are.
What’s important is preserving the matchups that are made with teams outside of the Top 16 to those No. 1 seeds and then attendance. It doesn’t matter what the seeds are, just that you stay within that band.
In other words, if you’re a second-seeded team from 5-8, you can go anywhere and play anyone, as long as the team you’re playing is 9-12.
See you here in a few weeks for the next Bracketology.
Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.
This week’s brackets
East Regional (Providence):
13 Wisconsin vs. 3 Harvard
12 Providence vs. 8 Union
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
15 Bemidji State vs. 4 Minnesota
10 Cornell vs. 7 Boston University
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
14 Ohio State vs. 2 Minnesota-Duluth
11 Notre Dame vs. 5 Western Michigan
West Regional (Fargo):
16 Canisius vs. 1 Denver
9 Penn State vs. 6 Massachusetts-Lowell
Conference breakdowns
Big Ten — 4
Hockey East — 4
ECAC Hockey — 3
NCHC — 3
WCHA — 1
Atlantic Hockey – 1
Movement
In: Canisius, Wisconsin, Notre Dame
Out: Air Force, St. Cloud State, Boston College
