Nicole: Well, Arlan, it’s certainly been an eventful first half of the season, off the ice as well as on. This column will serve as the final thing we’ll post here until the new year. The student-athletes are taking exams and getting a small winter break, but a number of teams take the ice again right away on January 1.
There have been plenty of interesting upsets, matchups and games played, but the big story of the first few months has been equity, the NCAA and tournament expansion. I never imagined tournament expansion would become an in-season issue or that we’d be 87 days from the currently scheduled quarterfinal round and still not know if the tournament will expand this year or what that would look like, and yet here we are.
It’s frustrating and not fair to the student athletes or the universities who would be tasked with holding additional games. The whole thing has been so haphazard and feels destined to go poorly. I’m not prone to optimism here, but I’m doing my best to at least reserve judgement. However the longer we go without any answers, the less inclined I am to be forgiving. The NCAA have done such a ham-handed job at attempting to fix this bit of inequity (the size of the tournament field). It feels like they responded to evidence that women’s hockey has a subpar championship experience by finding new ways to deteriorate that experience.
One thing I didn’t expect we’d be able to say in mid-December is that there has been minimal impact on the schedule due to Covid. I’m knocking on every available surface that this continues, especially as I read about professional teams across the sports world having big outbreaks. Games have stayed on the schedule and fans have been able to attend. There is no such thing as normal anymore, but it does seem like we’ve found a new routine that works successfully. Let’s hope the rest of the season continues safely.
Arlan: I’d say that the players deserve a lot of credit here. We’ve had the opportunity over the years to speak with young ladies from a variety of teams, and if I was going to categorize them in some way, I’d say that they tend to be quite selfless. Ask them to talk about their personal accomplishments and you get a lot of deflection and attempts to turn the focus back on the team as a whole. When a teammate who typically doesn’t get to play much scores a goal, they celebrate with more abandon than they display for their own triumphs.
It doesn’t really surprise me that they are willing to take precautions to protect teammates. Professional athletes, particularly some of the biggest stars, seemingly can’t be bothered to do the simplest things to aid the team. Women’s college hockey players often speak of their teammates as sisters, and they treat them accordingly in trying to keep them safe.
We watch great athletes, but from what I’ve seen over the years, they are by and large even more impressive as people. I join you in hoping that their efforts continue to pay dividends.
Nicole: Should we start from the top? Wisconsin is still the top team in the country and they rebounded from their loss and tie with Minnesota by winning two at Bemidji, a team that wrested a tie from them earlier in the season. After the series with the Gophers, voters handed out some top place votes to Northeastern and Quinnipiac.
I think I’m of the opinion that I’m not punishing any of the top four WCHA teams too much for losses to each other. It’s just so clear that these four are some of the best in the nation. It’s hard to fault them for beating each other up or to look at their records and put those losses on equal footing as losses to unranked teams.
How did you handle that when you were voting? Now that we’ve seen them all play each other, do you have a feeling on how Wisconsin, Ohio State, Minnesota and Minnesota Duluth compare to each other?
The Badgers host Quinnipiac to kick off the new year, so we’ll get to see how two top teams in different conferences matchup head to head, something we rarely get in season. I wasn’t sold on Minnesota early on, but they have shown a lot of growth through the first few months. Brad Frost told me his team was still searching for their identity, but he thought the win in Madison definitely helped them start to figure it out. Taylor Heise has stepped it up big time – the team was in need of its next big offensive threat and she’s embraced the role. Payton Hemp has been very good in her rookie season. I like the changes I’ve seen from the Gophers. It had felt like they’d gotten a bit stagnan over the past few seasons. There’s a different air about them now. I’m excited to see what they can do as the season progresses.
Arlan: You asked how I handled the losses of contending WCHA teams to each other when I used to vote in the poll; I think that each year and each team is a different circumstance. For as long as I can remember, the top contenders in an Olympic season average a couple of notches below where they will be the following season, when top players either return from centralization or no longer must split time between their college and national teams. No offense to the forwards down the Wisconsin depth chart, but if Lacey Eden and Britta Curl were in Madison, there would be fewer shifts available to some role players.
If I don’t evaluate the Badgers based on their play against the top half of the league, then what am I left to use as a measuring stick? Wisconsin has St. Cloud State, Bemidji State, and newly-promoted St. Thomas outclassed. Period. I’m glad that it worked out that they have a tough nonconference opponent in Quinnipiac looming, because the season-opening duo of Lindenwood and Merrimack told me next to nothing concerning the Badgers.
On the weekends when they have a varsity goalie available, Minnesota State has emerged as a clear fifth-place team in the WCHA, and fortunately, the Mavericks were able to play Wisconsin with Calla Frank in net. Inevitably, the Badgers won. Minnesota-Duluth has the scariest top line that I’ve watched thus far, and it did enough to force Bucky to overtime in one game. Wisconsin’s offense is strong enough that against most opponents, Kennedy Blair is tasked with avoiding making plays that will single handedly cost her team the game. She wasn’t able to do that against the Gophers, Wisconsin had to play from behind most of the weekend, and the Badgers lost a series to their rivals for the first time in recent memory. Ohio State fought to the bitter end but could only salvage a single point from UW, so Wisconsin owned the WCHA advantage until stumbling versus the Gophers.
On paper, the Buckeyes would appear to hold the advantage in the WCHA race now. OSU has only home series remaining versus the top of the league, including the rematch with Wisconsin, while only UMD must still travel to Madison.
Experience tells me that it’s one thing to take points from Wisconsin over the first half of the season, but as the weeks tick by, it gets increasingly difficult. I don’t have a problem with anyone who votes someone other than the Badgers first in the poll, as they haven’t really played up to their reputation so far, beyond whooping on some struggling teams. I expect that we’ll see a more convincing Wisconsin in 2022.
As for Minnesota and Minnesota-Duluth, there is actually a considerable gap between these teams and the top two. I don’t know that the Gophers can play with enough consistency to close it or that UMD is deep enough to get the job done.
The Bulldogs have an interesting series versus Harvard that spans the new year. For which team will it be more critical? UMD already lost one game out of conference to Penn State. Harvard has wins over teams that the Crimson would be expected to defeat, but was denied victory when facing Colgate, Clarkson, and Yale. Which team starts 2022 on an upward trend?
Nicole: Oh I’m definitely not discounting the games against the other top teams, just trying to look beyond simple win/loss records to try and determine how to separate the teams. It seems to me that Wisconsin’s loss to Minnesota or Ohio State’s losses to Wisconsin aren’t as telling about the team’s relative strength as Northeastern’s to Providence and BU, but who the heck knows. I’m personally higher on Quinnipiac than I am Northeastern at this point. Their only loss is to Princeton, alongside two times to Providence. They’ve put together a better record against tougher opponents.
Importantly, I don’t think the Bobcats have come very close to hitting their ceiling yet. I feel like we know exactly how good Northeastern is capable of being. But I’m not sure even Quinnipiac knows what will happen when they’re pushed and in the crunch of the postseason. I just really think they’ve still got a lot to give and room to continue to grow.
I’m not even sure I really expected them to be this good this year. I thought it would take another year or two for their talent to develop and come together. That they’re where they are with their youth should be very scary for the rest of the field. They aren’t going away any time soon.
It’s funny that it sounds like I’m higher on Minnesota than you are. It’s their performance in the big games that shows me they’re better than I first thought. I think the Gophers are also only going to get harder to beat as we head towards March.
Moving down the rankings, we come to Northeastern. I wrote a bit about Hockey East for my column last week, especially as it pertains to preparing the Huskies for the postseason.
Arlan: One of the hotter teams heading into the break is Northeastern. After starting just 2-2, the Huskies have won 14 of the next 15, with the only blemish being a tie with Providence. However, it is hard to know how impressive that is or is not. Northeastern is even over three games versus the Friars, and it lost its only meeting with Boston University. Sweeping its final two series from Princeton and Cornell may be encouraging, but these aren’t the Tigers and Big Red of a couple of seasons ago.
The Huskies will likely need to survive without Alina Mueller for a couple of weeks during the Olympic tournament, including during the Beanpot. That might cost them a game or two, but Northeastern still seems destined for at least a top-four seed into the NCAA Tournament. The question will be what happens next. Players often come back from participating in the Olympics either word down or mentally drained. Either in the quarterfinal or the semi, Northeastern figures to encounter an opponent stronger than it played during the regular season. To have success, it will need Mueller to be on top of her game.
But as you said, it is hard to project too much about what a potential tournament may look like when the powers that be cannot even tell us how many teams will qualify for it. Northeastern should have a first-round bye in an 11-team field, but the likely opponent for the quarterfinals will hinge on the event’s structure. Ambivalence like this doesn’t occur in the NCAA’s pet events, so you would think they would be smart enough to not give the appearance that women’s sports are being handled in an inferior way after how last year played out. I guess I’m giving an organization that gave us the RPI too much credit.
Have you identified any teams who are more likely than Northeastern to be on the NCAA Tournament bubble who will be without impact players during the Olympics, where that absence has the potential to cost them a spot?
Nicole: I know we talked about them before, but Minnesota Duluth will be without goalie Emma Soderberg. Sophomore JoJo Chobak has about 80 total minutes of college experience. Freshman Holly Gruber hasn’t yet gotten into a game. The Bulldogs haven’t been as strong on defense this season and Soderberg has kept them in a number of games as they’ve adjusted and tried to figure it out.
Ohio State will also be without their goalie in Andrea Braendli, but at least Amanda Thiele has put in some good minutes. Colgate has shown themselves to have a lot of offensive options this year, but I still think they’ll miss Noemi Neubauerová’s size.
There are obviously so many different things that can change, including upsets in the conference tournaments, but who do you think are the last few tournament teams at this point? I guess I’ll ask you for both an 8 team and an 11 team field. Let’s assume our top few teams are in – Wisconsin, Ohio State, Northeastern, Quinnipiac and Minnesota. That leaves Yale, Colgate, Clarkson, Harvard and Minnesota Duluth as bubble squads in the 8 team bracket.
If we move to 11, Penn State and Connecticut are currently the teams receiving votes, but who else do you think could be a bubble team in an expanded bracket? Or do you think it’s the 10 listed above and the CHA winner?
Arlan: UConn is an interesting team, and not because it is receiving votes. All that requires is somebody from Hockey East wanting to vote for another league team after Northeastern and thinking, “You know, Connecticut isn’t bad.”
However, the Huskies also sit 11th in RPI and BC Interruption’s version of KRACH. There is a power vacuum in Hockey East after Northeastern just waiting to be filled. UConn doesn’t have a higher-ranked opponent on its second-half schedule other than Northeastern. That schedule is friendly to a team that is looking to make a statement and force itself into the tournament picture, but you have to win your games.
One of UConn’s losses thus far was to Merrimack. The two teams played three times, and each scored eight goals. If you want to be an at-large team in the dance, even an 11-team event, you have to be able to separate from the Merrimack’s of the world.
Okay, let’s say that was just one bad day. The Huskies also split their season series with Maine: a win, a loss, a tie. The Black Bears are a smidge better than the Warriors, but losing to such foes will position a team such that it needs to win the conference tourney to advance.
Is it reasonable to think UConn could go on a second-half run? The Huskies only have one game remaining against the bottom four teams in the standings. While they may be the mathematical favorite in most of their games, it won’t be a substantial favorite much of the time. Chris MacKenzie has built UConn into a program that is typically respectable but hovers around the .500 mark.
This year, the Huskies are a veteran group with 15 players who are in at least their third season. Perhaps they can get on a roll and push up to about eighth or so, as teams around the middle of the standings in the ECAC and WCHA knock each other off.
As for the CHA, Mercyhurst and Penn State sit 14th and 15th respectively in the RPI and PairWise, with Syracuse 10 spots lower. The league is setting itself up for yet another “win or go home” tournament.
Nicole: We haven’t talked much about individual players or awards. For the Patty Kaz, we have a trio of Badgers atop the scoring leaderboard. Do you have a preference among Casey O’Brien, Daryl Watts and Makenna Webster? Or do you think they all make the watch list and/or top 10?
I think Taylor Heise and Caitrin Lonergan are probably shoo-in top-10 finalists. Sophie Jacques is definitely in my top 10. Between the two Colgate players among the scoring leaders, I think my preference is for Kalty Kaltounkova, but it’s a slim advantage over Danielle Serdachny. I like Kaltounkova’s improvement this year and how she uses her size, though Serdachny is great with directing play on the ice.
If I pick one Badger (it’s Watts, for me, right now), that’s five folks from me. Who else rounds out a top 10 (or so) list for you?
When it comes to the new goalie award, it certainly feels like it’s Aerin Frankel and then a pretty big gap. Quinnipiac’s Corinne Schroeder, Yale’s Gianna Meloni and Princeton’s Rachel McQuigge have stood out to me at different times this season. Who else has impressed you between the pipes this season?
Arlan: It’s tricky with goalies and awards. They need to play on teams that experience some success, or their play becomes irrelevant. If the team is too successful, then the pendulum swings the other way, and the perception becomes that any goalie could win with that team. Frankel and Schroeder seem to be in the right sweet spot, and they’re leading the statistics, so I think that the winner likely is one of them.
As for the Kazmaier Award, we’re in a situation that I doubt we’ll ever see again, with three active players who have previously won the award. I expect that all three will be included in the top ten finalists, and deservedly so. Watts is one of the best pure scorers that the game has seen. Frankel displaced an established starter at Northeastern and has maintained a high level of play season after season while taking her team to new heights. Elizabeth Giguere has a rare ability to make her teammates better and opponents pay for the smallest of mistakes.
Perhaps you didn’t mention Giguere because you were looking at total points, and she’s farther down the list in that measure; to me, points per game is more telling. She ranks sixth there, just behind Watts, while helping teammate Gabbie Hughes to the top spot. I find that ranking all the more impressive, because half of UMD’s games to date have come versus Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Minnesota.
The Badgers trio built a lead in points the first couple of weekends when all three racked up double-digit points at the expense of Lindenwood and Merrimack. If I’m going strictly by the eye test, then O’Brien would get the nod, because she continued to produce during her team’s most challenging series of the season to date versus Minnesota, while Watts had high-quality chances but was unable to capitalize on any of them.
As for my predicted 10 finalists, definitely include the three previous Kaz winners. Jaques is just behind Giguere in points per game, and at seventh, she’s the only defender in the top 25, so she’s also a lock for the No. 2 team. If Quinnipiac remains in the hunt, then Schroeder could become a second netminder on the list, because the Bobcats don’t have anyone producing more than a point per game.
In the second half of my list, I’ll start with Yale’s Ella Hartje, who slots in amidst the Wisconsin leaders in scoring pace, although she could easily be supplanted by Claire Dalton for her team lead. Alina Mueller is tops in Hockey East with 1.45 points per game, but that’s just good for 17th in the country. Unless she heats up, the voters may see that as too far a reach down the list, even with her resume; thus far, she’s only played 11 games, so there’s still time to boost that average. Beyond Hartje and Dalton, the only other player in the top 13 in scoring average from outside the WCHA is Lonergan, so I expect that she finds a place in the top 10.
Heise is fifth in points, but she’s outside the top 10 in average. She has been playing great, in spite of being joined on a line by seniors who totaled 33 and 30 points over their first three seasons, so she isn’t surrounded by the talent that UMD or Wisconsin has on its top line. I don’t know that voters look at it that closely at this stage. Hughes is a safer bet, and if Heise slumps a bit, then all three Badgers that you mention could be finalists. If someone from Colgate gets a nod, Serdachny had greater name recognition coming into the season.
That list is very heavy with WCHA players, but that’s partly due to a long run of success, plus having two Kazmaier winners transfer into the circuit.
Nicole: That looks like a pretty good list. I like the addition of Hartje – Yale has been really interesting to watch. Their game against Quinnipiac, where the Bobcats came back and won at the last minute, might be the most fun/best one I watched in the first half.
Here’s looking forward to a few more months of great hockey. Overall, it’s been a fun, eventful and interesting first couple of months and it seems like it’s only going to get better. We start off with some really great non-conference matchups first thing January 1 and 2 and there will be some games that impact the postseason in the final regular season weekend of the year.
Readers, thanks for coming back week after week – Arlan and I are thankful for you!
We hope you all stay safe and warm and get to enjoy some downtime with the people you love! See you in January!
