Each week during the season, we look at the big events and big games around Division I men’s college hockey in Tuesday Morning Quarterback.
Paula: Jimmy, Jimmy, Jimmy! How can it be that this is the first time this season that you and I have had a chance to go back and forth about the state of college hockey? I’m taking us old school – so to speak – for our TMQ reunion, starting with the very interesting DCU/USCHO Division I Poll this week.
Before I get to the new No. 1 and what voters might have been thinking about that, I want to look at the fact that five teams received first-place votes, a first since Dec. 6. I expect to see that many teams earn first-place votes early in the season, before a lot of hockey has been played to make more informed decisions, but I think this week the number of teams gaining that kind of confidence among voters is an indication of how good – and how very different – so many top teams are this season.
One of the things that intrigues me is the top vote for Denver two weeks in a row and having watched the Pioneers against Colorado College this past weekend, I can see why someone would put them first. As a team, Denver looks pretty whole – so complete that it’s kind of disconcerting to see how mediocre the Pioneers’ special teams are. As I’ve mentioned here before, Denver is a blind spot team for me. It’s a deficiency on my part and no fault of theirs. I just always seem to need to be convinced about the Pioneers. Right now, I’m pretty convinced.
That split at the top of the poll is pretty even, with 20 votes for Minnesota and 18 for Quinnipiac, teams that switched places from a week ago – and when the vote count was much more lopsided for Quinnipiac. I’m one of the 18 voters who kept the Bobcats at the top of the ballot. To me, an OT loss to a top team didn’t move the proverbial needle enough. Having said that, Minnesota State’s near-total dominance of St. Thomas – allowing just 20 shots on goal in two games and outscoring the Tommies 12-2 – gave me pause.
What do you think the voters are thinking? And what are your thoughts?
Jim: Well, Paula, I’m going to address Denver first and foremost.
Whether the Pioneers have slipped under the radar or not, the fact that they have climbed to third in the PariWise, to me, says that voters are paying attention to the one metric that I believe means a lot as we head down the stretch. Denver is 12-1-1 in its last 14 games, something I believe to be significant given the overall difficulty of the Pioneers schedule.
I think that the PairWise is also what spaces Quinnipiac 18 points in the poll from Minnesota State. Neither team is at the top of the PairWise, Michigan holds that honor. But the fact that after Quinnipiac’s loss on Saturday they are now seventh in the PairWise may have influenced voters to lower the Bobcats. Think that QU has only two less first-place votes than Minnesota State but is 18 points behind. Translation is that a number of voters place Quinnipiac somewhere between 3 and 7 in the poll.
With that, I want to go back to Michigan. The Wolverines earned four of six points against Minnesota over the weekend and, as mentioned above, are now tops in the PairWise. I’ve said it all season long that I believe this is college hockey’s best team. But they, as will Minnesota, will lose significant players to the Olympics. I know that has been talked about here in the past, but Mel Pearson told me last week that he felt urgency to get wins and points while he has a full team. Not every coach can be honest like that. But there is something to be said about where Michigan is when it loses its best players either this week or next.
I’ve never been around college hockey in such a tight Olympic cycle. It does feel rather strange.
Paula: That it does feel strange, Jim. It certainly feels a whole lot different from teams losing players midseason to the World Juniors, doesn’t it? It’s not just the number of NCAA players participating – there are 16 on the U.S. roster and as of this writing, we’re still waiting for the finalized roster for Team Canada – but the timing of the event.
We see teams impacted by the loss of elite players to international play every year, but the Olympic games are played as teams are chasing conference championships and trying to finish as high as possible in the PairWise. In his radio show last week before his team played Michigan, Bob Motzko said, “We’ve got to make some hay now.”
While I think that’s every coach’s mantra every day, it’s the timing that makes it feel so tight, as you put it. Motzko has said repeatedly that it’s a huge honor for the Golden Gophers to have three current and one former player chosen to represent the U.S. at the Olympics, and we know, too, that all coaches do feel that way when their players are chosen to compete internationally. During his radio show, Motzko also added that the “downside is that we lose them for six games in the middle of February.” It’s the timing.
The dynamic for international play changes, too, because of COVID, which is itself a factor that creates uncertainty for every team playing. Even programs without Olympians are beginning to feel a sense of urgency to make that hay, as Motzko said. And everyone is holding their breath about COVID.
Jim: I guess that timing is something we can’t all relate to as easily as we do the Olympics. Though sometimes not desirable as fans, to lose Olympic players with a few weeks’ notice can be planned for. Losing players to COVID can’t.
I don’t know how bad this will get in certain regions at certain times. Living in Boston, there is a belief that we are on the lower end of the COVID surge. Most programs got hit and had players unavailable, thought I haven’t surveyed every team. If teams get hit later, I wonder the impact and reaction.
Personally, I recall many calls with UMass coach Greg Carvel of his desire to keep his team COVID free. They survived much of the year, but as some will remember got hit in the NCAA tournament, forcing goaltender Filip Lindberg, among others, to miss the national semifinals. We also had teams like St. Lawrence, Notre Dame and Michigan that never were allowed to compete in the national tournament.
I’m not a doctor or a scientist, so I won’t make predictions, but I feel cautiously optimistic that the COVID curve will allow most teams to field competitive teams in the key portions – March and April – but we’ll never know.
Paula: I get the sense that you’re right about the overall COVID curve and how it will impact college hockey as a whole. With vaccines and a lot more smarts about how to deal with all of it, I don’t think we’ll be seeing entire teams dropping out of contention at any point because of COVID. I was thinking more along the lines of losing players down the stretch and how losing players unexpectedly – as opposed to having time to plan for losing guys to the Olympics – might color things as we look toward the final stretch here.
We talked about this last season, Jimmy, about how good teams persevere and do what they need to do, regardless of circumstances. As weird as this may sound, I think that’s an axiom that applies even now. Teams that can take care of business do take care of business, or at least as much of the business that is within their control, regardless of all other outside circumstances. We have seen that perennially when it comes to close conference races and in the single-elimination format of the NCAA tournament.
That’s one of the things that’s impressed me so much about Quinnipiac this season. Two total losses at this point is quite a feat for any team, but I’m sure that loss to Cornell is especially difficult to swallow, as both of Cornell’s goals came on the power play and that’s an area where the Bobcats have, indeed, taken care of business for the better part of this season.
Western Michigan sweeping North Dakota at home in the Broncos’ first games since Dec. 29 is impressive. Ohio State sweeping Michigan State while Minnesota and Michigan battled for points – and positioning themselves well at the top of the Big Ten – strikes me as a team taking care of business. American International increasing its win streak to 10 with a sweep of Sacred Heart and putting itself eight points ahead of second-place Bentley in Atlantic Hockey is evidence of a team that is doing all it can within its own power.
Then there is CCHA-leading Minnesota State, 16 points ahead of second-place Bemidji State and six conference games remaining. Sure, St. Thomas is in last place, but the Mavericks smothered the Tommies.
Heading into the last month or so of play, who do you see as completely in control of their own destiny – not just mathematically, but the teams that are capable of taking care of everything necessary?
Jim: Whoa, good question. I think this could be more easily answered without teams losing players to the Olympics. So I’ll give a shocking answer.
I say that AIC will win out or come very close. AIC has 10 games left and maybe goes 9-1-0 in my estimation, but I wouldn’t be surprised if AIC goes 10-0-0 and wins out this regular season. And that would boost their PairWise to a point of 11 or 12. Man could that create some fun scenarios come playoffs time.
I think there are other great teams and I think Denver, Minnesota State, UMass, Quinnipiac and Michigan (and maybe Ohio State) have runs in them, but the one team I want to see really go crazy is AIC. They’re ready for it.
