Last Friday’s games, which featured five matchups of nationally-ranked opponents, proved pretty difficult to handicap.
Of the eight USCHO staff, only four were above .500 and just one didn’t take a loss (nice job Jack Hittinger). For the first time in the two seasons of writing this column, we also had non-conference games that featured ties. Most sportsbooks will grade a non-conference tie as a push (conference play uses a shootout that counts towards standings, thus sportsbooks will use the shootout to determine the winner of the bet).
Once again this week, all 10 teams featured tonight are nationally ranked. You’ll notice on this week’s lines that favorites aren’t very heavily favored by the books. In fact, two of the five games are pick ’em and one has an even money (+100) underdog.
The reason for this? After three weeks it’s likely that the oddsmakers are getting smarter. When you’re talking the top 20, the difference between 1 and 20 is usually razor-thin (Quinnipiac’s tie and win last weekend at North Dakota is a good example as DraftKings had the Fighting Hawks a -180 favorite going into last Friday.
For bettors who like to hit the heavy underdogs hard, this hurts you as you can’t make as much. If you tend to like favorites, you won’t have to spend as much to win a single-unit bet.
Advice: don’t let this change your betting strategy. If you’re up 4-5 units through two weeks, keep on keeping on. Only alter a betting strategy when you can identify problems, like underestimating certain teams.
Here are this week’s breakdowns:
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
No. 14 Connecticut (-115) at No. 9 Boston University (-115); o/u 5.5
UConn continues to be an early-season darling of the oddsmakers, and for the second straight Friday the Huskies are a pick ’em, this time against Boston University on the road.
BU has been the more unpredictable team through the first few weeks, none more than last weekend. After Friday’s game went off the rails at Michigan, a 9-2 loss, BU responded with a gut-check, 3-2 victory against the Wolverines on Sunday.
The question you need to ponder is which BU team shows up. You can expect a consistent effort from UConn. But if you get the best of BU, is consistent enough for the Huskies?
No. 7 North Dakota (+120) at No. 1 Minnesota (-150); o/u 6
Minnesota and North Dakota is one of the best rivalries in college hockey. While these are non-conference games as opposed to the old WCHA days, that doesn’t change the intensity.
The Gophers ascended to the top position in the USCHO poll this week despite not playing a week ago. North Dakota dropped from 3rd to 7th after the disappointing weekend against Quinnipiac.
So which team should be more motivated? A lot of this might come down to which team starts strong. If Minnesota comes out guns blazing, the atmosphere at 3M Arena might be enough to propel the Gophers. If North Dakota takes the Gophers faithful out of the game early, it could be advantage Fighting Hawks.
The one bet I like here is the over. I’d prefer for it to be 5.5 as the over/under which would produce a winner at 6, but alas 6 is a the number which slightly favors as push.
No. 17 Western Michigan (-130) at No. 13 Notre Dame (+100); o/u 6
Notre Dame is an underdog… which pays even money. It seems counter-intuitive.
But that is the world of sports betting we’re dealing with these days. Sportsbooks want their edge and that’s the best way to guarantee a few bucks for the books if they take equal action.
The price for Notre Dame isn’t exactly appealing given how inconsistent the Irish have been this season. But I’m also not sure what we know about Western Michigan having faved Alaska Anchorage, Ferris State and Bowling Green to date.
Even the over/under in this game feels dangerous. The Broncos seem to always dance right around that 5-6 goal total. Notre Dame’s defense has been suspect all season, which would tend to favor the over. But this is Notre Dame’s first test since a 5-2 loss to Denver to start the season.
No. 11 Providence (+170) at No. 4 Denver (-210); o/u 6
Providence is the heaviest underdog this week (and conversely, Denver is the heaviest favorite), but this one doesn’t surprise me.
Denver has to be hungry after being swept on the road last weekend by Massachusetts. And while Providence is coming off an impressive 2-1 victory over Northeastern, long travel combined with a Pioneers team that should be seeking blood early makes the Friars a difficult pick here.
That said, there is a formula for a Friars win: Frustrate the Pioneers early. Last weekend, Denver scored just two goals, both coming with an extra attacker late in Friday’s game. If Denver isn’t able to score early, you could see them begin to grip their sticks a little tight and make create the opportunity for Providence to pull off the upset.
No. 2 Minnesota State (-115) at No. 8 St. Cloud State (-115); o/u 5.5
Minnesota State might be the most battle-tested team in the country thus far, and St. Cloud State as the next opponent won’t change that much.
And while the host Huskies are one of the few remaining teams that are unbeaten and untied, their four wins have come across St. Thomas and Wisconsin, not exactly world beaters.
That’s why I like the experience of a Mavericks team that has faced current number one, Minnesota, as well as Minnesota Duluth, going 3-1-0 in that stretch.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this was a low-scoring series, thus the 5.5 over/under is well set. This could easily be a 2-1 or 3-1 game as neither of these clubs surrender too many goals.
