We are four weeks into the USCHO Edge column and I’m beginning to see a trend: for the most part, the oddsmakers are doing a better job at setting lines.
Last weekend, four of the five games we handicapped were won by the favorites and the fifth was taken by an even-money (+100) underdog, Notre Dame.
That said, three of the five two-game series were splits (UConn/BU, North Dakota/Minnesota and Western Michigan/Notre Dame), so Saturday’s rematches were won by the underdogs (all were slight technically slight underdogs or pick ’em, though).
My point: it’s getting more difficult to find any value, particularly when you’re betting two nationally-ranked teams. The books consider these matchups razor-thin and often times even when you bet the underdog, you’ll be giving money (see below: Penn State).
If you’re looking for advice, find edges. Find games where you think there could be an underlying storyline (See below: Michigan-Western Michigan). Another area to find value can be the over/under (always indicated on the end of the line as o/u). Currently, college hockey goals are up season-over-season. That trend usually corrects itself but right now the puck is jumping in the net for some teams.
For instance, both Michigan and Penn State are averaging better than five goals per game. So if you see an over/under for these teams around 6 or 6.5, the over becomes an obvious bet. Will it always win? No. But the odds are in your favor that it will.
Here are this week’s breakdowns:
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
No. 1 Minnesota (-140) at No. 11 Ohio State (+110); o/u 6
The nation’s top-ranked team is only a slight favorite here, which likely factors in two things: the game is being played in Columbus and Minnesota is coming off an emotional weekend against North Dakota.
It will be hard to recreate the atmosphere from 3M Arena at Mariucci this weekend in Columbus and thus a slow start for the Gophers is a distinct possibility.
That said, it’s still difficult to pick against a team whose two losses have come against Minnesota State and North Dakota (in overtime), two teams ranked in the top 10.
If there is something to look for in Minnesota this weekend it’s the ability to close out an opponent. The Gophers haven’t had a comfortable victory since week one against Lindenwood. That closing ability could be notable as the season moves along.
No. 9 Boston University (+100) at No. 18 UMass Lowell (-130); o/u 5.5
While UMass Lowell and Boston University aren’t one another’s true rivals, this series always has some rivalry-like emotion to it. This weekend, it will pit two coaches in BU’s Jay Pandolfo and UML’s Norm Bazin who played against one another in some heated games back in the 90s.
Yes, that was nearly 30 years ago, but expect both coaches to bring some 90s emotion to their respective locker rooms.
Neither team has been good in games to begin a two-game series. UMass Lowell dropped their openers against Miami and Michigan State while BU fell to Michigan and UConn in their first of two. Something has to give on Friday.
This is a tough game to handicap, though you can expect a solid home crowd for the River Hawks that might be enough to put them over the edge.
No. 17 Western Michigan (+180) at No. 4 Michigan (-220); o/u 6.5
Let’s travel back in time to last December when a controversy was stirring in college hockey around a scheduled game between Western Michigan and Michigan. The game was supposed to be the second game of the Great Lakes Invitational when the Wolverines were missing many of their key players to World Juniors.
Michigan decided to cancel the game leaving many Western Michigan fans – and likely their coaches and players – irate. Since then, it feels like this weekend has ben circled on the calendars in Kalamazoo.
That said, this is a home-and-home series that begins in Ann Arbor, a place that Michigan has been 21-6-1 since the start of last season and 14-1-0 since the start of this calendar year.
Western did knock off Michigan at Yost in this exact series last season (and won in Kalamazoo the following night). And Western Michigan at +180 feels like one of the best values we’ve seen for any team this season.
No. 16 Penn State (-105) at Wisconsin (-125); o/u 6.5
It’s tough to imagine a team that is a perfect 6-0-0 receiving so little respect from bookmakers, but thus is the case for Penn State.
Tied with Michigan for the highest-scoring offense in the nation, the Nittany Lions are a technical underdog, though will cost you money to bet (-105). It’s obvious the books don’t respect PSU’s strength of schedule (sweeps of Canisius, Mercyhurst and St. Thomas) and are crediting Wisconsin for its sweep of Minnesota Duluth a week ago.
This might be a good place to bet the over (6.5), as these two teams average combined total is close to 7.5 goals per game. Wisconsin scored eight goals in its two wins last weekend, which means the offense my finally be figuring things out.
No. 2 St. Cloud State (-195) at Bemidji State (+160); o/u 6
St. Cloud State might be the most popular favorite this weekend and for good reason.
The Huskies are 6-0-0 and completed am impressive weekend sweep of Minnesota State last weekend, proving they can win tight games late, scoring the game-winner in the third period of each game. This St. Cloud State team feels resilient.
But Bemidji State has battled well through four games, rebounding from a loss to Arizona State with an overtime win in the second game of that series and then taking 5-of-6 points against Michigan Tech.
This is easily the biggest test for the Beavers, but Tom Serratore’s teams have always seemed to find a way to play their best competition tough.
