Each week during the season, we look at the big events and big games around Division I men’s college hockey in Tuesday Morning Quarterback.
Paula: Hello, Ed! How nice to chat up some college hockey with you again this season! Last week’s TMQ featured an all-Massachusetts cast. This week, it’s a couple of New Yorkers – even if one resides in Michigan.
I can hear the cries of Western bias now. Won’t readers be surprised when I ask you how good you think Hockey East is? (Spoiler alert: I think Hockey East is spectacular.)
But I’m getting ahead of things here. Let’s start with how we’ve just witnessed another riveting weekend of college hockey, one that had twists that few would have predicted. There were several splits among top 10 teams, resulting in Michigan sitting at the top of the DCU/USCHO Men’s Division I Poll. There were 13 overtime games. The Ivies joined the conversation. Penn State is the only undefeated team that’s played more than a couple of games. And Arizona State handed North Dakota its second consecutive U.S. Hall of Fame Game loss.
Last week, our good friend Jimmy Connelly pointed out that this early in the season, the top of the poll seemed a little janky to him. I think his point was a good one in that it was difficult to justify Minnesota as last week’s No. 1 and St. Cloud – which had been undefeated prior to the Huskies’ loss to Bemidji State this past weekend – sitting in second place.
A week later, though, and the top of the poll looks a little more reflective of the current college hockey landscape to me, but I can’t help but hear Jimmy’s valid argument echo in my head. If it could have been argued last week that St. Cloud could reasonably have been No. 1 as a 6-0-0 team three weeks in with wins over St. Thomas, Wisconsin and Minnesota State, why is Penn State No. 13 with sweeps of Canisius, Mercyhurst, St. Thomas and Wisconsin? (Full disclosure: I have Penn State at No. 11 on my ballot this week.)
What are voters seeing right now that are influencing the way they rank teams? How accurate a reflection of reality is the poll this early in the season?
Ed: It’s great to talk with you in this new season, Paula! You’ve asked three great questions, and I’ll start with the last one first.
I think the poll is an accurate reflection of reality simply because the ballot is so fractured. Top teams have scheduled early non-conference games against other probable NCAA tournament contenders, so almost nobody is running away with unbeaten records. With six teams getting first-place votes – including Connecticut, which makes me wonder if there’s a Nostradamus among the voters seeing something extra in a very good Huskies team – it speaks to the tough games and split weekends those programs have had. These early-season tilts will have major PairWise implications come March.
As they assemble ballots, voters are asking “what have you done for me lately?” Performance week by week weighs heavily in ranking big-name programs.
You also asked about Penn State. It’s because the sweeps they’ve made are over the teams you mentioned that they haven’t polled higher. None of Penn State’s opponents are expected to be at the top of D-I college hockey this season, so there’s some recognition of that in the Nittany Lions’ position. Stick a weekend into the Penn State schedule so far with a sweep or even a split with a top team and they’d have a great argument to be in the top 10. Give Guy Gadowsky’s squad this: they have won every game that they were expected to win.
A team that needs to watch how every game impacts the PairWise Rankings more than anyone else is Arizona State, which battled back to defeat North Dakota in Las Vegas at the Hall of Fame Game last Saturday. Coach Greg Powers has put together a schedule that can get his team in as an at-large, but without a lot of room for error. The Sun Devils need to do really well against top tier teams and win all the games that they “should” win. I am optimistic about Arizona State, but I have concerns about North Dakota, 1-3-1 in the last five games.
Paula: Everything you say here about Arizona State is something that I’ve been thinking about since the start of this season. Powers is building something beyond solid there, and the Sun Devils’ schedule leaves little room for error. It says a lot about ASU that they rose to that occasion – in a hostile building, given the number of North Dakota fans present – and won on such a huge stage.
Sharing their rink with the Arizona Coyotes can only be a positive experience for the Sun Devils. They’ll be NHL adjacent all season in ways that other teams are not. I do not know what the relationship between the two programs will be – how much interaction that will actually take place – but they are sharing a rink with an NHL team and that will bring benefits that can’t be overstated.
As for North Dakota, I’d say a 1-3-1 stretch heading into NCHC play is something to be concerned with, yes. The Fighting Hawks have played a challenging nonconference schedule at the start of the season, but even so, this isn’t the way the Fighting Hawks want to begin a long campaign.
To be honest, though, with the exceptions of Denver and St. Cloud, the NCHC as a whole looks a little down to me at the start of this season. That may change, but the conference doesn’t seem as dominant from the get-go as it has since, well, since its inception.
I wonder if parity is finally catching up with the NCHC. You and I know that these things can go in cycles. In contrast, I think that Hockey East looks good and really, really deep.
What are your impressions about the relative strengths of conference?
Ed: I agree with you about Hockey East. In our podcasts for USCHO, Jim Connelly and I have talked about how it seems that teams that have been toward the middle or bottom of the conference standings each year in that conference are alll getting better. UConn is a team to watch out for and Merrimack just split a home-and-home weekend with UMass in two overtime games.
One objective measure we have of conferences is each league’s non-conference record, which also significantly impacts the PairWise Rankings. The Big Ten has the best winning percentage and is only sub-.500 against Hockey East at 2-3-1. Hockey East is second and is above .500 against every conference except the NCHC. Meanwhile, the NCHC is third and is one game below .500 to ECAC Hockey and the Big Ten. The CCHA and ECAC Hockey are just above .400 and Atlantic Hockey is .333 in non-league play.
I’d rank them in much the same way as those numbers, also considering the prowess of the top teams in each conference. I’m giving the Big Ten a slight advantage so far as the best league of 2022-23, with the NCHC and Hockey East neck-and-neck just below. Then comes the CCHA and ECAC Hockey, with Atlantic Hockey nipping at their heels. We could spend a whole column on various comparisons but I’m going to leave it there.
I do think it’s safe to say that the gap between the top and bottom teams within leagues and overall across D-I men’s hockey is shrinking because there is so much talent and too few programs.
So far this season, I’ve been marveling at the skill and speed in the D-I game and reflecting on how it’s changed in the last decade or so. I’m sure you’ve noticed the rapid evolution of the sport, too.
Paula: I would agree about the parity within conferences, Ed. One thing I’ve found fascinating since the days when I covered the old CCHA — which was such a mixed bag of academic institutions — was how programs lacking some of the advantages of R1 schools (for example) drew top talent and remained competitive.
I still think this remains an issue within college hockey as a whole. It is, I think, some of what hampers Atlantic Hockey and it has been the reason that B1G Hockey’s underperformance on the big stage has drawn criticism. There are aspects of it that are easy to define while other related issues are more nuanced, but even with the growing talent and small number of D-I programs, it persists to some extent.
But you are correct, Ed, in your observations about the skill and speed development in just the last 10 years. We see this in women’s hockey as well. The game is analyzed more, athletic performance is studied through the lens of science, and hockey as a whole seems at the cusp of taking some big strides forward.
I watched a lot of hockey this past weekend, and I was struck by how fast the Western Michigan-Michigan games and Minnesota-Ohio State games were — faster than last season even. It’s exciting for fans of the game. It will be interesting to see if it translates into expanding and developing the fan base.
Ed: The other part of expanding the fan base is marketing the excellent show that’s on the ice.
College teams and conferences have followed the NHL in giving us Instagram photos of players heading to the arena – and dressed for Halloween – video clips of games and interviews, and plenty of other social media content. Game production is more elaborate. Streaming video of every game is available.
We can’t forget College Hockey Inc.’s part in raising awareness of the sport. You can’t watch an NHL broadcast without hearing about college players, and some of the best young players in the NHL – Makar, Zegras, Caufield, Quinn Hughes, and I could keep going – are former college stars.
Even head coaches who hate the glitz and gimmickry of three-on-three overtime or shootouts have to admit, sometimes grudgingly, that college hockey is an entertainment product.
And I’d argue that after more than four decades of watching, it has never been more entertaining.
