As this season has gone on and we’ve been able to watch the trends upon which sports books have set their lines, we’re certainly seeing a more cautious approach to line setting.
Well, most of the time.
This week, in two of the five games we’re looking at the lines have become almost lopsided towards the favorite, which as we’ve mentioned in the space before often creates opportunities for a bettor to make profits.
That said, the only way to make a hefty profit is for that underdog to win. So how likely is that for the aforementioned games?
Wisconsin beating Michigan doesn’t seem that likely given the Badgers track record in Big Ten play. But Arizona State against Denver? Well, the game comes just six days after the Sun Devils upset then-No. 2 Minnesota. Is there that much difference between beating No. 2 at home and No. 1 on the road? Read on.
All odds provided via DraftKings Sportsbook
No. 4 Minnesota (-150) at No. 13 Michigan State (+120); o/u 6
It’s highly unlikely many people had this weekend’s Minnesota-Michigan State series circled on their calendars before the season began as one of the marquis series in the Big Ten.
But with the Spartans playing like it is 2007 under coach Adam Nightingale, suddenly this two-game tilt against the Gophers could end up deciding which team will be in first place at the midseason break.
History favors Minnesota, which holds better than a .700 winning percentage all-time against Sparty. A year ago, the Gophers swept the season series, outscoring Michigan State, 17-7.
But this year’s Michigan State team is plenty different, particularly in net where Dylan St. Cyr boasts a .934 save percentage, tied for fourth nationally.
No. 7 Harvard (-125) at Cornell (-105); o/u 5.5
The renewal of the two biggest Ivy League rivals takes place on Friday in Ithaca, N.Y., as Harvard travels to Cornell.
Two weeks ago, the line on this game would have heavily favored Harvard, possibly making the Crimson as high as a -200 favorite or greater.
But a loss and tie for the Crimson at Michigan last weekend and four straight wins, including a 6-0 drubbing of then-No. 6 Connecticut last weekend, for Cornell at bookmakers have basically turned this line into a pick ’em.
Those who follow along know this is typically an area of opportunity for bettors as the Crimson likely won’t be as low as a -125 favorite in ECAC play too often this year. Certainly, this line takes into consideration the location of the game (at Cornell) but is that a reason to consider betting the hosts?
No. 10 Providence (-115) at Boston College (-115); o/u 5.5
Similar to the Harvard-Cornell series, this line might not have been so close a couple of weeks ago. But Providence’s loss to Brown last Saturday seems to be getting the attention of those setting the lines.
That loss, though, was the first for the Friars since October 22, which almost makes the -115 road line for Providence seem value filled.
Boston College has had some good moments of late, including a 4-2 win over that same Brown team this past Tuesday as well as wins over Northeastern and UMass Lowell.
But simply matching up these two teams and it feels like Providence should be a more significant favorite.
No. 5 Michigan (-225) at Wisconsin (+205); o/u 6.5
Michigan as a -225 favorite feels much more like 2021 than 2022.
The Wolverines have rarely been such a huge favorite this season (they were -220 favorites vs. Western Michigan earlier this season), but given Wisconsin’s struggles in Big Ten play (0-6-0), the line seems appropriate.
The Badgers have won four straight though those games were against independents LIU and Lindenwood. Not exactly the caliber of Michigan.
Yes, there might be value if you’re feeling good about the Badgers, but bet this one carefully.
Arizona State (+230) at No. 1 Denver (-290); o/u 6
Arizona State is coming off the biggest win in its program’s short history, a 6-5 overtime victory against Minnesota.
That victory came in the friendly confines of Mullett Arena, though and the road has not exactly been kind to the Sun Devils (1-5-0, plus 1-0-0 on neutral ice).
Denver has been steady at home – for the most part. Last Friday’s 3-0 loss to Omaha at home opened some eyes, but didn’t do much to dissuade bookmakers. The -290 line for Denver is among the highest any team has posted in this column this season.
Again, bet this game carefully.
