I want to start this week by looking back at a prediction I made late in last week’s column. It was in regard to the college games being played at Fenway Park last weekend.
I was close to correct that no game would produce more than five goals. But what I failed to consider was the fact that as the day progressed, particularly for the men’s games on Saturday, the temperature got colder and the ice sped up. Because of that, the Boston College-UMass game ended up going over the 5.5 goals total, albeit on an empty-net goal.
Which is all proof that handicapping hockey games when factoring weather can be really difficult.
On to this week and we’re seeing something that hasn’t happened in this space in a while: North Dakota is a favorite against a nationally-ranked opponent, this time Western Michigan. At -125, the Fighting Hawks are still closer to a pick ’em with the Broncos (-105), but you can see North Dakota trending back in the right direction as we approach mid-January.
The underdogs this weekend aren’t very massive, though Ohio State at +135 at Michigan is pretty decent value. All that said, let’s try to break down a few of the key games.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
Ohio State (+135) at Michigan (-165); o/u 6
It’s been a very long time – more than a month in fact – since Michigan played a game that counts (a 7-6 exhibition win on the USNTDP aside). So even with a game-night feel last weekend, you can still think that the Wolverines might feel some rust when they take the ice.
Ohio State, on the other hand, is playing solid hockey including a big sweep for the Buckeyes at home last weekend over Michigan State. OSU is riding a five-game win streak, but now must go on the road, which hasn’t been overly friendly this season (5-5-1 vs. 9-2-0 at home).
We should expect to see some goal scoring in this series, so the most attractive bet (particularly if you have any doubts about OSU) is likely over 6 goals.
Providence (-110) at Merrimack (-120); o/u 6
These are two teams licking wounds after last weekend. Merrimack took a tie against Yale and was run out of its building by Brown. Providence handed New Hampshire its first league win of the year before tying Army West Point. Both are looking for some bounce back here.
These two have already faced one another twice, a 3-2 win for the Warriors before break and then a 6-1 victory for Providence in the championship game of the Ledyard Bank Classic in Hanover. That was one of just two games that Merrimack has allowed six goals. The other? Last Saturday’s 6-2 loss to Brown.
It does give some pause about betting Merrimack, but given how strong this team was before the break, you have to believe there will be redemption at some point.
Minnesota (-150) at Notre Dame (+120); o/u 6
Minnesota is one of the heaviest favorites this weekend, and if you look at the USCHO staff picks, the books maybe don’t have the Gophers as a heavy enough pick.
All eight staffers like Minnesota, particularly after Notre Dame’s split a weekend ago with last-place Wisconsin. This is the second series for these two teams with Minnesota sweeping the first while allowing just a single goal in two games.
The over/under of 6 feels high given these two clubs only scored eight goals total (4-1, 3-0) in their first series.
Western Michigan (-105) at North Dakota (-125); o/u 6.5
Welcome back to the land of the favorites, North Dakota. Though it’s difficult to tell why the sudden change in hearts of bookmakers.
Sure, the Fighting Hawks are coming off a weekend sweep of Lindenwood, but that’s a team that’s 55th in the PairWise. The Fighting Hawks did take five-of-six league points against Western Michigan the last time they played in December, which must be just enough to sway the books.
But this is the same North Dakota team that went through a 2-5-1 stretch prior to that Western Michigan series, including 7-2 and 6-3 losses at the hands of St. Cloud State the first weekend of December.
Minnesota Duluth (-110) at Omaha (-120); o/u 5.5
This is another critical NCHC series with both teams battling for home ice in the postseason and a rematch of what was an exciting two-game series in Duluth back in early November.
Neither team enters this series on fire. Omaha split its last series at home with St. Lawrence after being swept by Colorado College to end the first half. And Minnesota Duluth is coming off a tie and win against Bemidji State but isn’t far removed by a sweep at the hands of Denver.
The over/under seems perfectly set at 5.5. Both games between these two clubs ended with final scores of 3-2.
