As the season wears on, each year you see more and more short lines – game where the books are cautious to even pick a favorite and neither team in a matchup is a heavy favorite or underdog. That makes finding value in and of your wagers near impossible.
Each week, though, it seems like there is one upset that is primed to hit. Last week it was Ohio State (+135) over Michigan on Friday, a game that was never close, a 7-2 final.
This week, it could be Michigan (+130) or Colorado College (+165). If you think it would be possible both teams could win, a two-team parlay would be worth it. A $100 bet parlaying both of these games would pay $509.50 should both teams win. A risk, yes. But the best value you can earn.
Maybe you feel strongly about one of these games and can find another to parlay with it. Even if you grab, say, St. Cloud State at home (-125) with Colorado College, a successful parlay would net $377 (on a $100 bet).
That’s the value you need to look for this time of year.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
No. 12 Connecticut (+105) at Massachusetts (-135); o/u 5.5
Here are two teams looking to get back on track. UConn has lost its last two and 4-of-6. UMass has lost three in a row and 5-of-7. Something has to break.
UMass seems to be drawing the favorite status based almost solely on home ice. But that shouldn’t preclude UConn from having a shot. UMass has five home losses this season, while UConn has a 5-3-1 record on the road.
Goaltending is likely the most important factor in this game especially for UMass which is averaging near four goals against in its last four losses, but has allowed just a goal per game in its last four wins.
Northeastern (+100) at No. 11 Merrimack (-130); o/u 5.5
This series has similarities to UMass and UConn as both teams have had difficult moments since returning from break. the exception is Northeastern’s two victories over UConn over the last two weekends.
Merrimack, itself, did earn a 3-0 win over Providence last Saturday after getting thumped by the same Friars team, 8-3, a night earlier.
The Warriors get the benefit of home ice on the money line, a slight favorite, which is appropriate looking at long-term results (Merrimack is 18-10-2 at home over the last two seasons), though short terms not been as strong (Merrimack is 1-3-1 in its last 5 at home).
No. 8 Michigan (+130) at No. 2 Minnesota (-160); o/u 6.5
One of the best matchups of the weekend, Minnesota seems like a little too heavy of a favorite against a Michigan team that a week ago was a -160 favorite against Ohio State. But the bookmakers are showing their strong preference for the Gophers right now, who are 8-1-1 in their last 10.
There is also recent history as Minnesota earned two road wins (5-2 and 6-3) at Michigan back in November. But both teams at that time were fighting both illness and injury so the results may not have been completely indicative of the ability of each team.
Still, the USCHO staff picks heavily favor the host Gophers.
No. 3 Denver (-105) at No. 4 St. Cloud State (-125); o/u 6
This weekend’s heavyweight series in the NCHC gives us another rematch. On the first weekend of November, St. Cloud State rallied on back-to-back nights in Denver, winning in overtime on Friday before falling in the second game, 3-2.
This is probably the slimmest of margins two teams can produce when facing one another and the line makers agree, giving each team a minus money line. Even the over/under here seems perfectly set at 6. The teams scored 7 and 5 goals, respectfully, in November.
The best bet on this series may be staying away. There’s so little value and it’s difficult to find an edge between these teams.
No. 10 Western Michigan (-205) at Colorado College (+165); o/u 6.5
The Broncos offense has become an absolute juggernaut, averaging 6.75 goals per game since returning from break. But the Broncos aren’t immune to be stifled.
In the three games before break, that same offense scored just three goals in three games earning two losses and a tie against Omaha and North Dakota. But we set lines and bet on recent trends. Hence the -205 favorite.
Colorado College has been more consistent in goals allowed. Over the last 28 days, both goaltenders – Kaiden Mbereko and Jake Begley – have goals against averages between 2 and 2.5 for the last month. And lest we forget CC’s upset of St. Cloud State on the road last Friday.
