When was the last time we had a team at odds of +240 of better? Probably Air Force when they played in the Desert Hockey Classic?
Wisconsin rests in that spot this weekend as they take on Michigan (-305) on the road. This is juicy considering the razor-thin margins that you have among each team.
And then you look at Wisconsin’s record. On the road in Big Ten play, the Badgers are miserable. In fact, since Cole Caufield left, Wisconsin has just a single road win in Big Ten play.
Value? Yes. Sensible? No.
Do you ride one with the Badgers and maybe parlay a team like Harvard along for the double upset and hopefully turn $100 in $560? Probably feels like a great value bet but the numbers don’t support it in this situation.
The best value may be riding the favorites this weekend when it seems like favorites have been pretty hot. Right now, a five-way on favorites only would turn $100 into $1,242. Yes, it’s a long shot to hit but probably a better wager than betting the Badgers.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
Quinnipiac (-125) at Harvard (-105); o/u 5.5
The Bobcats enter back on the right foot after losing two ECAC games a couple of weekends ago. Last week’s dramatic 4-3 win in the Connecticut Ice title game has the Bobcats back on the right road.
But that road now leads through Harvard, which is playing well having won five of its last six and seven of the last nine. When these two teams met in early January in Hamden, the Bobcats started fast, jumping to a 3-0 lead and cruising to a 4-1 win.
The over/under of 5.5 in this game seems like it could be a little high. Both teams have great goaltending in typically limit their opponents, so this feels like a low-scoring contest.
Connecticut (+115) at Northeastern (-145); o/u 5.5
And speaking of low-scoring games, Connecticut and Northeastern have been pretty stingy of late. Devon Levi is playing his bast hockey of the season, while UConn has held its opponents to two goals or less in 12 games already this season.
That said, when these teams faced each other recently – once at Fenway Park and then for the opening of Toscano Family Ice Forum in Storrs – the Boston-based Huskies were able to put up four goals in each game. So bet that over/under of 5.5 carefully.
Northeastern deserves to be favorite here given two recent wins in the series, but the price of -145 is actually decent value for the hosts.
Wisconsin (+240) at Michigan (-305); o/u 6.5
I’ve mentioned about that Wisconsin simply isn’t a good bet (thus, Dan Rubin has picked the Badgers). But what makes Michigan a good bet this weekend?
First, the Wolverines offense has come to life of late, putting up 24 goals in their last five games (hence why I love the over in this game). And though Michigan dropped a game at Wisconsin earlier this season, that came in a stretch where the Wolverines won just twice in a seven-game span.
Yes, +240 is a great value bet, but given the Badgers road record it just doesn’t make sense.
Michigan Tech (-120) at Bemidji State (-110); o/u 5
Before the calendar turned to 2023, this looked like one of the best series in the CCHA second half. But Bemidji State has hit a rough patch and hasn’t swept a weekend since December 15-16.
The Beavers 2-6-1 mark since New Year’s Eve is disturbing. And while we at one point talked about all the games in hand the Beavers had, it goes back to the old expression – games in hand are only valuable if you win them.
Michigan Tech, on the other hand, is playing its best hockey of late. With a 7-1-1 mark in the last nine, the Huskies have put themselves back above the PairWise bubble and they are chasing Minnesota State for the regular-season title. Even on the road, you’d have to think it’s Tech’s weekend and -120 is incredible value.
Western Michigan (-135) at Minnesota Duluth (+105); o/u 6.5
I read back to last weekend where I made a case for Minnesota Duluth to beat St. Cloud State. And then saw the final line of that section where I said something to the effect of “If you like your money, ignore everything I’ve said.”
Well, hopefully you didn’t ignore, because the Bulldogs are healthy and playing their best hockey. They’ve found a way to electrify AMSOIL Arena once again and should be considered a dangerous home underdog this weekend.
These two teams already split a series back in November when Minnesota Duluth was a little banged up. So even though Western Michigan is hot (7-1-0 in last eight), the Bulldogs value has to look attractive here.
