The pain of finding value is a valiant effort of every sports gambler out there.
And then we look at Maine playing at Boston College on Friday night, a game where the odds send mixed messages.
The Black Bears are the second-best team in Hockey East since December 1. But they’re still an underdog against a struggling Boston College team. There has to be a reason.
Well, Maine is six games under .500 on the road this season as the Black Bears begin a four-game road trip in Hockey East play.
It’s a strange dichotomy of a betting line but proves that the longer the season goes on, the more the sports books seem to be paying attention to key aspects that influence the lines.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
Maine (+105) at Boston College (-135); o/u 6
Maine really needs to be a heavier favorite in this game. The Black Bears are 9-5-1 since December 1, a stark comparison to Boston College’s 4-6-3 record over the same stretch.
But, typically, the bookmakers look for a trend and Maine’s 3-9-1 road record influences this line. That said, The Black Bears have found plenty of great wins of late, including a weekend sweep of Providence.
Boston College probably feels “due” to many bettors, but that is typically the worst reason to pick a favorite. Best said, bet this one carefully.
Michigan (-175) at Michigan State (+140); o/u 6.5
A rivalry game where the home team is a +140 underdog. That’s often solid value.
But the Spartans, aside from last weekend’s home sweep of Notre Dame, have struggled. Michigan has been explosive offensively of late and deserve the -175 juice.
But value is value. And right now Michigan State could possibly be laying that value.
If you really want value, though, isn’t 6.5 as an over/under line where it is at? This feels like a 6-5 game no matter what. Though the higher scoring the game, the more it favors Michigan.
Northeastern (-110) at Providence (-120); o/u 5
You can bet against Northeastern, if you’d like. But the Huskies are probably the hottest team in the country with the way Devon Levi is playing.
So where. might you find a value for Providence? The Friars did beat Northeastern in October on the road. The score of that game was 2-1, which would be an expected possibility for this game.
But we can’t advocate against strong trends. Providence is 1-5-0 in it last six. Northeastern is an inverse, 1-5-0, over the same stretch.
North Dakota (+165) at Denver (-205); o/u 6.5
the last few years, this was a rivalry game in the NCHC. And this probably feels that way, but North Dakota’s recent struggles make it difficult to favor the Fighting Hawks.
3-3-0 in the last six isn’t back for North Dakota, particularly 3-1-0 in the last four. But the wins have come against Miami and Minnesota Duluth, both teams in the league.
Denver is not a bottom-tier team. Especially at home. The Pioneers are 14-3-0 at home this year, and while North Dakota will pose an awesome challenge, this game feels like Denver all the way.
Ohio State (-110) at Notre Dame (-120); o/u 5.5
Will Notre Dame’s desperation outshine Ohio State’s decent record?
Sure the Buckeyes lost three of their last five, but their six-game winning streak prior still has some level of credibility.
The question is whether the Irish, a team that has split almost every single series this season, can find a way to grab a win or two or if the two losses to Michigan State last weekend continue to trend.
