We’re getting towards the end of the regular season where, as we’ve discussed in previous column, sports books are getting much better at setting lines.
Thus, finding value on a single game can often be challenging. This Friday, though, you have three home underdogs (some may argue North Dakota at +100 isn’t much of a ‘dog).
So the key in finding a real value is whether or not you can maybe find one underdog and make a two-or-more team parlay where you can increase value of a bet to +300 or better.
If you don’t understand the parlay concept, take a quick Google to understand how it works.
All that said, yes there are some juicy underdogs this week. The over/under lines also feel like you could hit one or two (Minnesota/Penn State over 6.5 seems viable).
But most importantly, there is great action to enjoy in the final weekends of the regular season.
No. 2 Minnesota (-175) at No. 7 Penn State (+140); o/u 6.5
Penn State is at home and is playing a Minnesota team that lost on the road last Saturday to Wisconsin. Shade towards Penn State?
I’m not sure. I don’t mind the Nittany Lions at home, but Penn State is 3-5-0 in its last six and is .500 at home in Big Ten play this year. Add in the fact that Minnesota can clinch the Big Ten title with a win on Friday. It seems hard to believe that the Gophers will fail to clinch twice in a row.
That said, Penn State earned a 4-2 win and fell 3-1 in the Twin Cities earlier this year. It’s not impossible, but this time of year, the trends favor the Gophers.
Over/under of 6.5 feels manageable until you realize the first two games between these two teams went under. Bet that carefully.
Yale (+300) at No. 1 Quinnipiac (-450); o/u 5.5
Wow, look at Yale. Highest value we’ve seen in some time at +300. That’s automatically worthy of a bet, right?
Well, not so fast. The history simply won’t support that wager. Yale hasn’t won in Hamden since 2011. The Bulldogs have lost the last nine games at the Bobcats.
Now add in the fact that Quinnipiac is one of the hottest in the nation AND they haven’t lost at home this year. Honestly, you’re better off trying to win a tiny bit betting the Bobcats than trying to chase what looks like empty money in Yale.
No. 18 UMass Lowell (-110) at Providence (-120); o/u 5
UMass Lowell hasn’t had many teams that have felt like a kryptonite in the Norm Bazin era, but one team that has had the River Hawks number seems to be Providence. The two teams split the season series a year ago, each team winning at home.
So looking at the current trends, UMass Lowell is strong since January 1, while Providence is 2-6-2 over the same span. Home ice likely means a lot in this series.
The over/under seems near perfect at 5. These two teams play to a pair of 3-2 results last year. The under does seem more likely than the over, but it is more likely this pushes.
No. 6 St. Cloud State (-130) at North Dakota (+100); o/u 6
This is a decent NCHC rivalry of late, but both teams are equally as far apart in the league standings this season. St. Cloud is in a three-way tie for second, while North Dakota is tied for sixth. A Huskies sweep could almost certainly align a rematch of these two teams in St. Cloud in a few weeks in the NCHC quarterfinals.
Home ice used to be a near guarantee for the Fighting Hawks, but a 7-8-1 mark at the Ralph this season is hardly a guarantee (their 5-5-3 mark on the road is a tad better). St. Cloud hasn’t been excellent on the road (7-6-0), but the -130 price is pretty attractive for a Huskies team that is trying to lock up an NCAA bid as much as anything.
No. 13 Minnesota State (-150) at Bemidji State (+120); o/u 5
When fans of these two teams look at this series, it might be easiest to remember the two-game sweep by the Beavers when they traveled to Mankato in mid-December.
Since that time, these two teams have headed in opposite directions. The Mavericks are 9-1-0 since the exam break, while Bemidji State is 3-9-1 since that weekend series in Mankato.
The Beavers certainly should believe they could beat Minnesota State, and these are two true rivals – far prior to the days of the CCHA part II. But the Mavericks seem red hot and could really position themselves well to clinch the CCHA title next weekend by gaining the majority of the points this weekend.
