It was just a week ago in this space that I was saying that bookmakers seem to be getting savvy when it comes to developing the lines across college hockey.
Well, throw that though out the window. If you are able to bet on DraftKings, there are two games that seem pretty far off when it comes to the money line.
Northeastern and Massachusetts are a pick ’em on Friday, despite the Huskies sitting in first place in Hockey East and the Minutemen in 10th. On the other end of that spectrum, Michigan Tech, second place in the CCHA, is a heavy +180 underdog at Minnesota State on Friday.
It feels like these two lines were accidentally juxtaposed.
As any sharp gambler will tell you, these are the times you have to make the wager. Ever if you think that UMass and Minnesota State will win, you’re getting much better value to bet the opponents. You won’t get Northeastern at -115 again this season and the same can likely be said for Michigan Tech at +180.
I’ve said it in this space that I give advice here, so nothing is set in stone. But I always try to look for value in the lines, and both examples here are the best value you will receive.
No. 20 Notre Dame (+180) at No. 4 Michigan (-220); o/u 6
There should be a level of motivation for Michigan this weekend as the Wolverines look to wrap up the second seed in the Big Ten tournament. But Notre Dame might have even more motivation as the Irish need wins just to keep their hopes alive of earning an NCAA at-large bid.
Two losses for the Irish would drop them two games below .500. Certainly, that would drop them below the bubble line in the PairWise, but more importantly, Notre Dame would have to earn two wins just to return to .500, a qualification requirement for an at-large NCAA bid.
Lose this weekend and the pressure is on the Irish in the Big Ten tournament. This team has been inside the NCAA picture all season, thus it would be tragic to fall apart down the stretch.
No. 8 Ohio State (+170) at No. 1 Minnesota (-210); o/u 5.5
Minnesota has the Big Ten regular season crown sewed up, so should we expect the Gophers to maybe lay back this weekend, possibly rest some players? That’s doubtful.
While every coach appreciates advancing in a tournament without playing (read: quarterfinal bye), in the Big Ten that also means a weekend off at a time of you year don’t really want time off. That’s what Minnesota will have next week, so expect the Gophers to be putting forth everything this weekend, particularly Friday’s series opener.
That said, Ohio State, like Michigan, is looking to wrap up the second seed in the Big Ten tournament, tied with the Wolverines heading towards the weekend. Expect both teams to have plenty of intensity in what could be a high-scoring game (read: bet the over).
No. 3 Denver (-115) at No. 5 Western Michigan (-115); o/u 6.5
Denver can lock up the NCHC title with a sweep of Western Michigan this weekend. Then again, the Pioneers could find themselves in second place should they get swept.
Credit to the schedule makers for placing this matchup this late in the season in what should be an explosive Lawson Arena.
Honestly, I have a difficult time finding an edge in this game. Even the over-under feels perfect. My instincts tell me to stay away from this one, though I’d be going with Denver if I had to bet.
No. 11 Michigan Tech (+180) at No. 12 Minnesota State (-235); o/u 6
Here is the first of the two games mentioned in the open where it feels like the oddsmakers took the day off.
Sure, Minnesota State is a good team and has historically been excellent at home (though only 9-6-0 this season). But Michigan Tech has been right around the Mavericks all season and enter this weekend knowing it can claim its first regular-season league title since John MacInnes’ team accomplished that feat in 1976.
Yes, Minnesota State needs to be a favorite here, but I’d rate it more like a -130/+100. Thus, betting Michigan Tech at +180, you’re getting 80% more value over expectations. This feels like a must bet.
No. 15 Northeastern (-115) at UMass (-115); o/u 5
See what I wrote above? Ditto.
There is no reason that Northeastern should only be a -115 pick ’em. This team should easily be -250 and UMass should be +190. The fact this line is so off, Northeastern is a must play. Add in the fact that the Huskies are 9-1-2 on the road in Hockey East this season and UMass has just a single Hockey East home win this season… well, you get the point.
The other aspect of this game that seems off is the over/under. UMass is 6-4-1 against an over/under of 5 in its last 11 games. Northeastern is 5-5-1 agains the same stat in its last 11. The edge is a lot more slight than the money line, but this also feels like a game that will go over 5 goals (or minimally push).
There’s a lot to consider here, but it seems like there is plenty of opportunity.
