The playoffs are officially in full swing with all six leagues in action this weekend. But formats are different from league to league this weekend.
Atlantic Hockey, ECAC Hockey, and NCHC are all playing best-of-three series this weekend, while the Big Ten, CCHA, and Hockey East all are playing single-elimination games.
If you read last week, feel free to fast forward to the game breakdowns themselves as I plan to review some of my notes from a week ago.
Best-of-three series require more strategy. In series where there seems to be a clear favorite, the lines in game one are skewed heavily towards that favorite, giving you a lot of value if you believe there can be an upset in game one. If you don’t, these are typically games to avoid. Waiting for game two lines often gives you better value on the home team.
Single elimination really is about making the correct pick. There’s no strategy besides seeking out the best lines. We’ll see it in the Big Ten games we preview that value is really difficult to find with some heavy home favorites.
DraftKings is a little thin on available lines this weekend, really focusing on the NCHC and Big Ten, so that’s what is previewed below.
Also, a welcome to bettors in Massachusetts, as online wagering in the Bay State is live as of this morning.
NCHC Playoff Game picks are designated for Friday; Big Ten playoff games are played on Saturday
North Dakota (-105) at Omaha (-125); o/u 6 (NCHC Quarterfinals, Game 1)
This is a sneaky good matchup with a good price on Omaha playing at home. But these two teams played a weekend ago in Grand Forks and North Dakota earned the sweep.
Does home ice make a difference for Omaha? Well maybe. The Mavericks are 10-6-2 at home vs. 8-7-1 on the road. North Dakota, conversely, is 6-5-4 on the road this season, still above .500.
Last weekend, these two teams played completely opposite games, a 5-4 tilt on Friday followed by a 2-1 defensive struggle on Saturday. We point that out only to note that the over/under of 6 is set dead in the middle of those two totals.
Minnesota Duluth (+170) at St. Cloud State (-210); o/u 6 (NCHC Quarterfinal – Game 1)
Another direct rematch of a weekend ago, and these games are at the same venue in St. Cloud. Minnesota Duluth is playing its best hockey of the year, closing the season 3-2-0 with one of those losses coming in overtime.
Last weekend taught us that this should be a very tight series, giving some credence to Minnesota Duluth, particularly at a +170 value.
There are likely to be a good number of goals scored in this one, but at an over/under of 6, we don’t like this one. 4-3 is a likely score (it was the score twice last weekend) but playoffs typically produce 1-2 goals less per game. We support betting unders, but this one feel dangerous.
Colorado College (+290) at Western Michigan (-350) o/u 5.5 (NCHC Quarterfinal – Game 1)
Colorado College has put forth an admirable season under coach Kris Mayotte, but right now the Tigers are running into an absolute buzzsaw in Western Michigan.
It’s highly unlikely that the Broncos will take a night off and -350 is a horrendous (though appropriate) price for a favorite. Western won the season series, 4-0-0, and outscored CC 14-4 (three decisions by scored of 4-1.
We don’t mind the under here because it’s not likely you’re going to see a ton of goals from CC. The only danger is that Western Michigan explodes for 5 or 6 goals, but even that bucks the trend for the recent defensive efforts by the Tigers defense.
Michigan State (+250) at Minnesota (-320); o/u 6 (Big Ten Semifinal)
There is one major question about this game between Michigan State and Minnesota: will the one-week bye have a negative impact on the Gophers?
No team wants a week off this time of year. So Bob Motzko will need to find a way to motivate his club to start fast. A slow start that, say, allows Michigan State to jump to an early lead could be problematic for the Gophers. Thus the value for Michigan State at +250 feels real.
The trend when these teams play is for a lot of goals, so even if you want to lay off the money line, the over might be an appropriate bet here.
Ohio State (+135) at Michigan (-165); o/u 6 (Big Ten Semifinal)
There’s been a question of whether or not Michigan is real this season. Though top four in the PairWise, the Wolverines have the 10th-best winning percentage this season, carried by the strength of the Big Ten schedule.
Now, they’ll be tested by an Ohio State team that a weekend ago allowed just four goals in a three-game series against Penn State. Michigan leads this season series, 2-1-1, but Ohio State won and tied in the last two-game set. The totals for the four games were 9, 6, 6 and 4, which means taking the over, if so inclined, is likely the proper move.
