Each week during the season, we look at the big events and big games around Division I men’s college hockey in Tuesday Morning Quarterback.
Dan: Happy Tuesday everyone!
I hope you all had an opportunity to catch your breath after a wild weekend throughout the college hockey ranks. It was easily one of those times where few games disappointed while giving us a plethora of things that we’re going to talk about.
As usual, I’m going to start with the new USCHO.com poll and a couple of things I floated as part of this week’s Monday 10. We don’t usually see No. 1 teams lose their top spot unless they lose a game along the way, but I fully expected Boston College to drop first place votes to some combination of Denver and Wisconsin after their respective series.
Sure enough, Wisconsin picked up the numbers, and the Badgers posted 12 first place votes despite staying behind Denver in the polls. Less than 50 points now separates No. 1 from No. 3.
Jimmy, you and I both watch a lot of BC hockey and have been riding the Wisconsin story for the better part of the last few weeks. What stuck out to you about what you saw yesterday afternoon?
Jim: I got to see Boston College close up this weekend and I can testify this team has all of the tools. Now making sure that the toolbox is made of metal and in great shape is the only question for this team.
The reality is this BC may be young, but the chemistry of the club already seems apparent.
As for Wisconsin, I wasn’t sold on this team when they were 5-1. My mind told me that the Minnesota and Michigan weekends would be the necessary tests that would reveal the Badgers identity.
Well, tests passed. At 9-1 Wisconsin rose to third in the poll and has opened everyone’s eyes. This will mean the Badgers wear a bullet on their collective backs, but this team seems prepared to handle things.
We’ve talked about the obvious, thus far. What about surprises? What teams are your positive and, maybe, not so positive surprises thus far?
Dan: I’m going to go completely off the board and give a huge shoutout to Augustana for its performance over the first month of Division I hockey. I know the transfer portal era makes it easier to build a competitive roster on shortened timing, which itself is a huge switch from when Robert Morris started its program 20 years ago, but the Vikings are finding a cohesion and chemistry that’s made them competitive from the opening jump of this season. They nearly beat Michigan Tech twice this season and spent late October rubbing elbows with Denver and Colorado College after sweeping Bowling Green back in mid-October.
I kind of assumed that the Bowling Green games were the kind of breathless games that accompany a grand unveiling, but I’m starting to believe in Sioux Falls as a legitimate college hockey hometown. Head coach Garrett Raboin found some alchemy by hitting the portal for over a dozen players, and I’m starting to eyeball a couple of teams who should probably be wary if Augie keeps building in the right direction. I more specifically envision a team like a Notre Dame or Arizona State hanging around the Pairwise portal before running into a bad loss along the way.
That said, Arizona State avoided a major slip this weekend when it struggled to put Stonehill away in both games in the desert. I know how the saying goes. Nobody ever asks how a team wins…they just ask how many, so I’ll try not to take too many shots at the weekend. Plus the Sun Devils are completely undefeated at home with Denver coming to town this weekend.
This is a huge stretch out in Arizona where the next six games are at home. Alaska Anchorage is coming in the aftermath, and the two games against Providence are going to feature a top-5 caliber team.
We’ve discussed Arizona State at length on the USCHO Edge podcast. Are we looking at the make-or-break stretch for the independent’s trip to the NCAA Tournament?
Jim: Your question is interesting because many (including you over text message on Friday night) thought that a loss against Stonehill would’ve been a season ender this weekend past.
The reality is that one game is always one game, particularly in an independent schedule where you assemble the teams you know may or may not elevate or drop you in the PairWise.
A regulation loss to Stonehill would not have been good for Arizona State. That said, a 67% (value for OT win) of a .8 (value for playing at home) win, equals 53.6 percent of a win, so basically a tie against a team that hadn’t won a game.
It’s not the best feeling for the Sun Devils, but any coach will tell you it is sometimes difficult to rally a team to play an opponent that seems inferior.
The credit at the end, though, is Arizona State still took two wins.
Are you concerned about the Sun Devils, though? Thus far, I am not.
Dan: I would have been much more concerned if Stonehill won one or both of those games, but in the absence of the all-important first win by the Skyhawks, I’ll bite on Arizona State missing what amounted to a missed encounter with a meteor.
You made a great point on Arizona State during last week’s USCHO Edge discussion that I’m going to come back to, largely because we might not see other teams succeed as independents. Greg Powers has been able to construct a schedule around his flexibility that makes the Sun Devils a virtual lock as long as they don’t lose every single one of those games. They have to just hold serve against certain opponents and then win key games throughout the season.
Last week was a case of holding serve, and with Denver coming to town, I think dodging the crater is exactly what Arizona State needed. I’ll wait to bite until after this weekend for sure, but I think I’m in the boat where I’m still floating through the desert with them.
There are teams that I think should be concerned, though, and you and I have talked about them before. Has the list changed at all since a couple of weeks ago?
Jim: I think it is difficult because I am adding new teams to the list of “don’t crash” as they achieve good things.
For me, New Hampshire is on that list and tied and lost against a very good Providence team this weekend past. I’m not panicking yet.
But I also look at a team like Notre Dame. Maybe I should have great concern for the Irish any time they’re not in the top 15. I trust Jeff Jackson to reload all the time.
I just can’t see where this team belongs. It feels like a bottom two in the Big Ten, but that league is so tight the Irish could become a top three with a few upsets that I am not expecting.
Overstatement on all accounts? Possible. I just want to see more from this Irish team at this point.
