If you keep reading this column every week, we’ll probably seem like a broken record.
As the season progresses, the sports books are doing a better job each and every weekend setting lines.
If you believe that you can simply pick up an app on your cell phone and begin laying wagers without doing your homework, be prepared to lose money. If you win with that approach, know how lucky you are. If you lose, well, don’t say we didn’t warn you.
At this point in the season, you need to begin to look for trends. Look at each team’s average goals scored and average goals allowed. Neither stat is necessarily tied together but you can’t grade each independently.
For example, you can’t look at Denver’s season numbers if you take into account last weekend where the Pioneers outscored Yale, 14-0, over two games. That weekend has to be looked at as an aberration. Otherwise, you’ll be skewed, particularly when it comes to make wagers on over/under lines on total goals.
Let’s look at the numbers. Include the Yale series and the Denver offense averages 5.5 goals per game. Exclude it, and the average drops slightly to 5.25 GPG. On the other side, include those two shutouts and Denver averages 2.64 goals against per game. Exclude them and that number raises to 3.08 GA per game.
What we’re saying is that the overall statistics from each team should be measured given the opponent.
This weekend, Denver faces North Dakota, a potent offense in its own right. Both teams have played 14 games, and the Fighting Hawks have scored 26 fewer goals. NoDak has also allowed 10 fewer goals over that span.
The Fighting Hawks, though, haven’t had a stat-padding weekend like Denver did a weekend ago.
We’ll let you take those stats as they are and make your own decisions. But you have to carefully examine not just the basic stats for each team but also take a close look at the schedule each team has played.
Games to watch this week:
New Hampshire (+170) at Maine (-220)
This college hockey rivalry really needs both teams to be among the best to create the deserved buzz that these two teams represent. Right now, both teams are playing well. That said, even at home, Maine at -220 is almost too strong of a favorite. New Hampshire has played some tough opponents tight, winning games against Boston University, Quinnipiac and RIT (and a tie vs. Providence). We can’t say that UNH will walk into. a hostile Alfond Arena and just earn an automatic win. But the price at +170 will be among the best you get on this team for the remainder of the season.
Minnesota (-150) at Penn State (+120)
No one has to go too far back in the memory for when Minnesota was the nation’s number one team. It certainly hasn’t been smooth sailing since that point in time, but the Gophers have been strong through a difficult schedule. After being swept by a good, upstart Wisconsin team, Minnesota swept Minnesota Duluth, had a win and tie against Michigan, split against Notre Dame (the 4-2 loss likely the only bad loss of the season) and earned a tie and overtime win against Michigan State, arguably the best team in the B1G. You can’t underestimate Penn State at home, but Minnesota is a short price against the Nittany Lions on Friday, a perfect time to grab the Gophers at near-even money.
Game to avoid this week: North Dakota (-105) at Denver (-115)
Best bet this week: Minnesota (-150) at Penn State
Also consider: New Hampshire/Maine over 5.5 goals (-105)
All lines provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
