A couple of weeks ago in this column, we talked about the fact that lines on college hockey games seemed to be getting more and more accurate.
You can tell that bookmakers are using artificial intelligence – or AI – as a means to limit liability. Rarely in the course of a week do we see lines move, so whatever is set on Wednesday morning (at least on our source, DraftKings) generally remain the same right up until game time.
With that said, it’s been rare that we see a heavy favorite or a massive underdog. Until this weekend. And as we examine this game, it seems that the line may be a little off.
Colorado College is traveling to North Dakota for a two-game set. The Tigers are currently +300 on the money line, meaning a $100 bet on CC would yield a $300 return (plus the original $100, of course), if Colorado College wins.
There’s no reason to think that isn’t at least possible. But giving a return of $300, you’re basically saying getting 3-to-1 on your money. To translate, if you feel that North Dakota would win less than 75% of the time, then 3-to-1 on your money is a bet of value.
If you’ve listened to the podcast, you know that we don’t actually wager on college hockey. But if you’re one who does, This is a pretty good bet in terms of value. Will this be listed as my best bet of the week at the bottom? No. That’s typically reserved for a wager I think has a very high chance of hitting.
But if you’re willing to take some risk and want a bet that provides value, this might be one for you.
Some games to watch this weekend:
Minnesota/Ohio State over 6 goals (-110): The Gophers may be struggling of late, but they still are averaging 3.38 goals per game. Ohio State is the outlier here with an average of only 2.33 goals per game, but the Buckeyes have been averaging closer to 3 goals per game over the last 14 days. Last season, these teams combined for 10 goals and 7 goals in two of their four regular season games (6 and 4 were the totals in the other two games). Setting the line at 6 is solid by bookmakers, but this feels like one that will go over or push more often than stay under.
Michigan State (-160) vs. Notre Dame: The Spartans were extremely consistent this season until two weekends ago (a tie and OT loss at Minnesota). They’ve had two weeks to fix things that went wrong and now host a consistently inconsistent Notre Dame team. At -160, this is decent value for a team that could be closer to -225. We like Sparty here.
Denver/Western Michigan over 7 goals (-115): We’ve been here before in recent weeks. Over 7 goals is a lot of goals. We get it. But Denver is averaging 5.31 goals per game. Western Michigan is also a top 10 offense, averaging 3.71 goals per game. The Pioneers have scored less than five goals once, and that was their last game out, a 3-2 loss on night two against North Dakota and they’ve scored less than five goals on a Friday just once all year. Western’s defense has been awesome of late, but they haven’t played an explosive team like Denver.
Game to avoid this week: St. Cloud State (-145) at Omaha (+114)
Best Bet: Denver/Western Michigan over 7 goals (-115)
