On Friday night, Connecticut will host New Hampshire at the still-feels-like-new Toscano Family Ice Forum in Storrs, Conn.
The money line on the game is pretty straight forward: Host UConn is a -160 favorite and the road dogs UNH are -124 on the money line.
But the over/under is where we find something rather strange. It is a season low on DraftKings for any game – 5. It is so low, that when the line dropped on Wednesday morning, you originally could only bet under 5 total goals; the over had a lock symbol on the button.
Since that time, DraftKings added the over as an option, but the line is -130. In other words, to win $100, you’d have to risk $130, not something you see every day on an over/under line.
When we look at team statistics for both New Hampshire and UConn, these numbers become even more perplexing. UNH boasts a top 20 offense averaging 3.17 goals per game. There is a drop off to UConn which is 46th in the nation with 2.67 GPG.
On the other side, both defenses are top 20, but barely. UNH is ranking 18th allowing 2.61 goals against per game while UConn sneaks into the top 20 on the number with 2.67 goals per game.
So why is this the lowest rated over/under of the season on a betting website? We’re not sure.
Look at some more data. The last five scores between these two clubs were 6-1, 3-2 (OT), 4-1, 6-1 and 3-2. Not a single game in that stretch goes under five goals, though three would push. In fact, the last time these two clubs combined for less than five combined goals was Jan. 2021, during the strange COVID season, when the combined for a pair of 2-1 outcomes. Those are games I am willing to throw out.
So what do we make of all this? Personally, I see this as a line that is simply off and even at -130, the over warrants a wager here. Maybe the game stays under, but statistics and history certainly don’t support that notion.
Other games around the country:
Michigan (+114) at Michigan State (-145); over/under 7
It’s been a while since this classic rivalry has posted a line with Michigan as an underdog, but that’s how this season has played out. The Wolverines are a bubble NCAA team right now, while Sparty continues to role. The one caveat is that this is a rivalry game, where we often believe you can throw out record. If ever there is a time for an “upset” – and we use those quotation marks intentionally – this could be in for visiting Michigan.
North Dakota (-125) at St. Cloud State (-105); over/under 6
Two NCHC heavyweights battle in St. Cloud for first place in the league standings and plenty of PairWise muscle. The over/under here grabs our eye, though, as it is shaded (-125) towards under six goals. Three of the four regular season games between these two teams went over 6 goals. A playoff game finished 3-2 in overtime, but we throw out playoff games as teams tend to buckle down defenses more in the postseason. Thus the -105 line on over 6 goals looks attractive in this one.
Best bet: UNH/UConn over 5 goals (-130)
