Sorry for the delay on this, but we’ll be taking a look at how we got here and what’s to come. It’s playoff time for Women’s D-III hockey and the east playoffs are underway!
CCC
Endicott really took control of things this season, finding themselves back atop the CCC after Suffolk won it for the first time ever last year. The Gulls own the #1 seed while the young program in Western New England holds #2.
As of today, we now know both semifinal matchups, we’ve got:
Curry at Endicott & Univ. New England at Western New England
Curry earned their spot in the semis after shutting out Salve Regina 3-0 in the quarterfinal round.
Pairwise Picture:
For the CCC, this year is like most, the lone NCAA bid will be given to the conference winner. This year Endicott (18-4-3) sits a respectable 13th in pairwise, but that won’t be enough to earn an at-large, especially considering they’d be losing if they did not receive the auto-bid.
Look for Endicott to take the auto-bid, however Western New England is the team I said in the preseason and in a weekend of game picks that would give the Gulls issues. WNE needs to get by Univ. New England and then look for the Golden Bears to give Endicott all they can handle. Don’t forget WNE was leading #3 Amherst entering the 3rd period in a game where the Mammoths won.
NEHC
The NEHC has been an interesting ride this season, more than last year. Last year, we saw Elmira go a perfect 17-0-0 (game vs Plymouth State canceled and not rescheduled), but fell to Norwich in the conference finals, sending Elmira home and the Cadets into the NCAA tournament.
The semifinal matchups are quite intriguing: Univ. Southern Maine at Norwich & William Smith at Elmira.
The Huskies goaltender Haley McKim won her third-straight NEHC goaltender of the year award this season as she put on many stellar performances. The conference also features star-talent in net, Leocadia Clark of Norwich & Leonie Kuehberger of Elmira.
This Elmira team hasn’t seemed like the usual Elmira despite the solid record of 18-7-1, they’ve taken a few uncommon losses this season, but will look for a rematch with Norwich in the finals to avenge last year’s loss when they were considered the favorite to win the title.
Look for Southern Maine to give the Cadets a run, this season the Huskies got their first-ever program win vs Elmira, so let’s see if we see it again and find the Huskies in the final’s vs Elmira/William Smith. William Smith defeated Norwich early in the year, splitting the series, so we will see if Norwich can handle them and move on to the finals. This is a Norwich team led by their 5th-year goaltender Clark, a relatively young team that’s relied on veteran leadership throughout the season.
Pairwise Picture:
Based on the current pairwise numbers, the league winner will receive the lone bid to the NCAA tournament, occasionally we see Elmira & Norwich both have a shot at the dance, but this year, like last, will feature the lone auto-bid from the NEHC.
Norwich has an impressive resume, more than others in the pairwise running, but find themselves ranked lower due to the conference overall SOS (strength-of-schedule). The Cadets defeated and tied Plattsburgh during the season, look for them to take the conference and head to the NCAA tournament unless Elmira can stop them. I don’t see the Cadets losing unless it’s to their rival Elmira.
NESCAC
The NESCAC features Amherst having another stellar year, they’ve got the #1 seed in the NESCAC conference tournament, 12-2-2 and 20-2-2 overall. Goaltender Natalie Stott has had another amazing season, only having one rough game really, otherwise she’s been near-perfect.
The tournament features some intriguing matchups, the main ones include Wesleyan at Colby & Trinity at Hamilton. The reason I picked these out is because Wesleyan has been upset city in the NESCAC this season. The Cardinals have dropped a lot of games, but also won many games including defeating and tying Amherst. Look for them to make a run and face Middlebury in the semifinals assuming they can get by Williams.
Amherst has been the only team in this conference to show they’re for real, pairwise says different, but the Mammoths are the current team-to-beat and it’s not close. If this conference is everything it’s made out to be, Amherst should be #1 in the country over undefeated River Falls who sits at 25-0-0 in the WIAC. (This isn’t my opinion but based on the highly viewed “SOS” within the conference, this claim isn’t too far off from reality).
Pairwise Picture:
In terms of pairwise, the NESCAC will see likely three teams in the dance, these teams are:
#3 Amherst 20-2-2
#6 Middlebury 13-6-4
#7 Hamilton 13-5-6
Yes, you read that right, a team [Hamilton] who sits in 5th in their own conference, a conference record of 6-5-5, currently is a frontrunner for an auto-bid in the NCAA tournament. Now, many will accuse me of hating on and/or dissing the conference/teams, but from a rational standpoint, this is even ridiculous for SEC football standards, the NESCAC has created their own standard. Alabama doesn’t get into the CFP with a conference record of 5-3…
So yes, look for a minimum of two teams to get into the dance unless Amherst loses, then we may see three to four teams in… I’d argue Colby or Trinity should be in over Hamilton currently, Middlebury has at least performed well in-conference (10-3-3), but you’ll have to play teams who aren’t in your conference in the tournament, they hold a record of 3-3-1 in those contests, multiple vs unranked opponents.
Don’t take this as a diss at the conference/teams, but at the system itself. The league is smart to take advantage of this and they know what they’re doing, they take advantage of it and show no signs of stopping. Enjoy it while you can… It won’t be like this forever…
SUNYAC
The SUNYAC has shown some great parity this season, lots of improvement across-the-board. We’ve seen Oswego come along quite well, getting wins over both Plattsburgh & Cortland. We’ve seen Cortland defeat Plattsburgh and Oswego, and Morrisville come alive under a new coaching staff and get the #4-seed in the playoffs. The Mustangs are the most-improved team in the conference in my opinion.
The matchups we’ll see are Morrisville at Plattsburgh & Oswego at Cortland.
This conference is interesting in terms of NCAA bids because Plattsburgh will earn an at-large regardless of what happens, even with a loss to Morrisville which isn’t likely, they should remain high enough regardless to earn an at-large.
Oswego and Cortland are wildcards, if Oswego wins, Cortland’s season is likely over, but if the Red Dragons get a date with the Cardinals in the finals, this should greatly improve their at-large chances assuming they fall to Plattsburgh in the final due to the Plattsburgh game being added to their RPI (ratings-percentage-index).
Look for Oswego to steal a game vs Cortland and give Plattsburgh a run in the finals, but I see the Cardinals taking care of business in the end and winning the conference for about the 9728293rd time. Kevin Houle continues to create one of the best legacies we’ll ever see in D-III Women’s hockey.
Pairwise Picture:
As mentioned, Plattsburgh should be a lock for the tournament whether it’s via auto or at-large bid. Cortland needs to beat Oswego at the minimum to have a chance at holding a high-enough pairwise spot; they also need Hamilton and/or Middlebury to lose early in the NESCAC tournament.
If the Mustangs pull this off, it’d be arguably the biggest pair of upsets in the conference’s history. The Lakers of Oswego have a chance to make noise in at least their first game with Cortland, they defeated the Red Dragons & the Cardinals in the regular season, something they haven’t done in a long time. Head Coach Mark Digby, the former Assistant for the Men’s team at Oswego, is the best thing to ever happen to Oswego.
UCHC
The UCHC in the preseason was viewed as having a new force, that force was meant to be Utica. The Pioneers are one of the oldest teams in D3, while Nazareth, the dominant force that’s owned the UCHC for years now, is one of the youngest. This was supposed to be Utica’s year, but the Golden Flyers have retained their dominance for now, winning another regular-season title and sweeping Utica in the regular season.
The matchups we had to start are:
Kings at Nazareth (Nazareth 5-0)
Chatham at Utica (Utica 5-0)
Alvernia at Manhattanville (Manhattanville 4-0)
Wilkes at Arcadia (Wilkes 1-0)
Now, we have Wilkes at Nazareth & Manhattanville at Utica in the semifinals.
I fully expect Nazareth to advance, but Wilkes will give them a game, the Colonels have had a great season, one of the program’s best, but I expect an upset on the other side…
Utica’s looked good in conference play no doubt, but they better not overlook the Valiants en route to the final’s vs Nazareth. Give me Head Coach Jen MacAskill’s Valiants to advance to the finals and face Nazareth for the UCHC auto-bid in the NCAA tournament.
Whether we see Utica or Manhattanville vs Nazareth in the final, I can’t see anyone taking down Nazareth at the moment, they just seem to win conference games and there’s no reason to doubt them.
Pairwise Picture:
One team will come out of this conference, Nazareth sits at #11 & Utica at #14, both too low for an at-large bid, just outside the range.
Utica is in must-win mode now, the team is old and built to make the NCAA tournament, sitting with an overall record of 21-3-2, the Pioneers just need to get over the Nazareth-hump which they haven’t been able to do the past couple of years, but the games between those two have been some of the best in Women’s D-III hockey.
Personally, I’d like to see a new face in the dance, give me the Valiants with a pair of upset-wins to earn them an auto-bid.
