After a hotly contested regular season, the first round of the Big Ten playoffs begins this week and it’s nearly impossible to predict who will advance to the semifinals.
Guess what? That’s exactly how I started this column heading into the Big Ten quarterfinals a year ago.
While it’s easy to reclaim that intro, the way that the 2023-24 season unfolded is anything but recycled.
Last year, Minnesota ran away with the Big Ten regular season title to earn a first-round bye. Ohio State and Notre Dame each earned home ice in the first round last season, Michigan and Wisconsin traveled.
This year, Michigan State earned the regular season title just last weekend against second-place Wisconsin, so the Spartans will get a weekend of rest while everyone else plays. This is Michigan State’s first B1G title, and in the first nine seasons of Big Ten hockey, The Spartans have never finished higher than fifth place.
The Badgers had a chance to put themselves ahead of the Spartans even before the teams met to end the season. With two games in hand on Michigan State during a mid-February weekend when the Spartans were idle, Wisconsin traveled to Ohio State where the Buckeyes took both games.
That was the first B1G sweep of the season for Ohio State against a Wisconsin team that was fourth in the country. The Buckeyes followed that up with a win the following weekend against then-No. 4 Michigan State, setting up that finale weekend between the Spartans and Badgers.
As things stand right now, four Big Ten teams are high enough in the PairWise Rankings to play in the NCAA tournament, but one team that went to the Frozen Four last year is on the bubble. Michigan State, Wisconsin and Minnesota are fifth, sixth and seventh in the PWR. Regardless of what happens in B1G playoff action, those three teams will be playing at the end of March.
Michigan’s fate, though, is less certain. At No. 13 in the PWR, the Wolverines need to get past Notre Dame in the quarterfinals – and it would help if they swept – to be on more secure NCAA tourney footing. Given where they sit, the Wolverines would also benefit from high seeds winning in both Atlantic Hockey and the CCHA. Upsets are bad for bubble teams.
But first things first. These are the quarterfinal Big Ten matches. All series are best-of three.
No. 7 Ohio State at No. 2 Wisconsin
The Buckeyes enter the playoffs on a three-game skid, having been swept at home by Penn State last weekend after a road split with Michigan State. Ohio State are 3-5-0 since the start of February, and those three wins represent three-fourths of their total conference wins this season.
The Badgers are 5-4-1 in their last 10 games, with two of those losses coming in overtime. Wisconsin ended the season on a high note, posting a 4-1 win over Michigan State in their final game when they split with the Spartans last weekend.
Ohio State leads this all-time series 28-26-5. The teams split the season this year, with the Badgers winning 3-0 and 6-1 at home (Dec. 1-2) and the Buckeyes sweeping in their barn 3-2 (OT) and 3-1 (Feb. 16-17).
Here’s how the teams compare in a few categories.
Scoring offense: Ohio State, 2.68 goals per game (44th); Wisconsin, 3.33 (14th)
Scoring defense: Ohio State, 3.41 goals allowed per game (t53rd); Wisconsin, 1.94 (3rd)
Power play: Ohio State, 21.0% (27th); Wisconsin, 19.4% (35th)
Penalty kill: Ohio State, 71.1% (60th); Wisconsin, 88.6% (2nd)
Top scorer: Ohio State, Stephen Halliday (10-23—33) ; Wisconsin, Cruz Lucius (12-19—31)
Top goal scorer: Ohio State, Scooter Brickey (12); Wisconsin, Lucius (12)
Goaltender: Ohio State, Logan Terness (3.33 GAA, .896 SV%), Kristoffer Eberly (2.97 GAA, .910 SV%); Wisconsin, Kyle McClellan (1.91 GAA, .932 SV%)
These teams have met four times in Big Ten tournament play. The Buckeyes swept the Badgers in quarterfinal play in Columbus in 2020. Wisconsin beat Ohio State in the first-ever 2014 Big Ten tournament in St. Paul, Minn., and then again in the 2017 B1G semifinals in Detroit.
This series is the first playoff hockey action that the Badgers have hosted at the Kohl Center since the 2013 WCHA quarterfinals.
No. 6 Penn State at No. 3 Minnesota
The Nittany Lions are 3-5-0 since the start of February but ended the regular season with a home sweep of Ohio State. They’re 3-3-0 in their last six, with a win over Michigan and one OT loss to Wisconsin.
The Golden Gophers had the best record in the Big Ten to close out the season at 5-2-1 since the start of February, but they enter the B1G tournament on an overtime loss to Michigan in their split with the Wolverines last weekend. In that series, the Gophers scored 11 total goals, including five in the loss.
Minnesota is 27-18-1 all-time against Penn State, including a 3-1-0 record this season.
Here’s how the teams compare in a few categories.
Scoring offense: Penn State, 3.24 goals per game (17th); Minnesota, 3.53 (10th)
Scoring defense: Penn State, 3.59 goals allowed per game (58th); Minnesota, 2.56 (15th)
Power play: Penn State, 20.3% (30th); Minnesota, 23.8% (14th)
Penalty kill: Penn State, 76.5% (50th); Minnesota, 78.8% (40th)
Top scorer: Penn State, Aiden Fink (15-18—33); Minnesota, Rhett Pitlick (17-16—33)
Top goal scorer: Penn State, Fink (15); Minnesota, Jimmy Snuggerud (19)
Goaltender: Penn State, Liam Souliere (2.88 GAA, 9.05 SV%); Minnesota, Justen Close (2.39 GAA, .920 SV%)
Penn State has played more Big Ten playoff games (25) than any other league opponent, with a record of 15-10-0 in conference post-season play. Prior to their quarterfinal series against Ohio State last year, the Nittany Lions had never lost a best-of-three B1G playoff series.
These teams last met in the Big Ten playoffs when Minnesota beat Penn State 3-2 in single-elimination semifinal play Mar. 12, 2022.
No. 5 Notre Dame at No. 4 Michigan
The Fighting Irish were 2-6-0 in February, closing the season with a bye week the first weekend in March. Their last two losses came at the hands of their first-round opponent.
The Wolverines ended the regular season with a 6-5 OT road in a split series against Minnesota. Michigan went 6-4-0 in their last 10 games of the season.
These teams last played Feb. 23-24 in Yost Ice Arena, 4-0 and 2-1 Michigan wins. The teams split a pair of games in South Bend in early December. Michigan is 88-70-6 all-time against Notre Dame.
Here’s how the teams compare in a few categories.
Scoring offense: Notre Dame, 2.76 goals per game (40th); Michigan, 4.26 (3rd)
Scoring defense: Notre Dame, 2.62 goals allowed per game (17th); Michigan, 3.03 (t35th)
Power play: Notre Dame, 18.3% (38th); Michigan, 35.2% (1st)
Penalty kill: Notre Dame, 82.9% (17th); Michigan, 78.5% (43rd)
Top scorer: Notre Dame, Landon Slaggert (18-10—28); Michigan, Gavin Brindley (22-24—46)
Top goal scorer: Notre Dame, Slaggert (18); Michigan, Brindley (22)
Goaltender: Notre Dame, Ryan Bischel (2.46 GAA, .927 SV%); Michigan, Jacob Barczewski (2.79 GAA, .910 SV%)
These teams have met once in the Big Ten playoffs, a 2-1 semifinal win for Michigan Mar. 20, 2022.
The Wolverines are the defending Big Ten playoff champions. In fact, Michigan has beaten Minnesota in the title game in the last two consecutive years, each time by a score of 4-3. Michigan has three B1G playoff championships, more than any other team.
Notre Dame won the Big Ten championship in its first season with the league in 2018 and then again in 2019.
