The calendar has turned to 2025, which means we are in a good place to begin taking a deep dive into the PairWise Rankings in a weekly segment called “Bracketology.”
For those who aren’t familiar, each week I will attempt to predict the field for this year’s NCAA Division I men’s ice hockey tournament and look at trends as to which teams may or may not make the tournament field.
Let’s begin this week by going over some of the basic selection criteria and the guidelines we need to follow when seeding the field.
First the field is selected based on two types of participants: automatic qualifiers (AQs) and at-large. AQs are the six conference tournament champions from AHA, B1G, the CCHA and ECAC, Hockey East and the NCHC. The remaining 10 teams are the 10 highest-ranked teams in the PairWise Rankings.
Currently, that gives us the following 16 teams:
1. Michigan State*
2. Boston College
3. Maine*
4. Minnesota
5. Providence
6. Denver
7. Western Michigan*
8. Boston University
9. Ohio State
10. UMass Lowell
11. Connecticut
12. Michigan
13. New Hampshire
14. Quinnipiac* (ECAC Champion)
15. Minnesota State* (CCHA Champion)
16. Bentley* (AHA Champion)
Now that we have our field of 16, we need to seed the tournament into four regions (host school in parenthesis): Manchester, N.H. (New Hampshire), Allentown, Pa. (Penn State), Toledo, Oh. (Bowling Green), and Fargo, N.D. (North Dakota). There is one overarching rule that supersedes all others: Host teams must be placed in their region.
Right now, only one host is qualified: New Hampshire, the host in Manchester.
Next, we seed the tournament based on bracket integrity, that is 1 vs. 16, 2 vs. 15, 3, vs. 14, etc. That gives us the following bracket:
1. Michigan State
8. Boston University
9. Ohio State
16. Bentley
2. Boston College
7. Western Michigan
10. UMass Lowell
15. Minnesota State
3. Maine
6. Denver
11. Connecticut
14. Quinnipiac
4. Minnesota
5. Providence
12. Michigan
13. New Hampshire
Next, we should place each four-team bracket attempting to keep the highest number-one seeds nearest their campus. That said, New Hampshire and its bracket will be placed in the Manchester Region.
After that, Michigan State should be placed in the Toledo Region, Boston College in the Allentown Region and Maine in the Fargo Region. That gives us the following:
Toledo Region
1. Michigan State
8. Boston University
9. Ohio State
16. Bentley
Allentown Region
2. Boston College
7. Western Michigan
10. UMass Lowell
15. Minnesota State
Fargo Region
3. Maine
6. Denver
11. Connecticut
14. Quinnipiac
Manchester Region
4. Minnesota
5. Providence
12. Michigan
13. New Hampshire
Next, we have to avoid setting up interconference matchups in the opening round. That is to avoid having two teams face one another in the first round who may have played days earlier. Right now, we have no interconference matchups. Pretty ideal.
What isn’t ideal is having a number of regions where attendance will be a concern. Manchester should be solid with the host school and Toledo having Michigan State less than two hours from Lansing and Ohio State even closer is a good draw. But Fargo, with three eastern teams, could struggle for attendance as would Allentown. The closest of those four teams is Boston College and that is five hours away by car.
So is there something we can do? In terms of moving top seeds, that’s not possible. Shifting either Maine or Boston College to Manchester would create a first-round matchup between Hockey East teams, as New Hampshire must be the #4 seed in the Manchester Region.
But could we make another switch by moving teams within their seeding band (teams 5-8 form the #2 seed band, 9-12 form the #3 seed band and teams 13-16 form the #4 seed band).
It would be possible, though, to switch seeds in the #4 band to get teams closer to their campus without sacrificing bracket integrity. Moving Quinnipiac from Fargo to Allentown and Minnesota State from Allentown to Fargo would bring both much closer to campus (Quinnipiac is 3hr, 15min from Allentown; Minnesota State is 4hr, 25 min from Fargo).
Could we make more changes? Possibly, but for now, I’m okay with making this simple one and calling this our bracket for this week.
Here is the final bracket for this week:
Toledo Region
1. Michigan State
8. Boston University
9. Ohio State
16. Bentley
Allentown Region
2. Boston College
7. Western Michigan
10. UMass Lowell
14. Quinnipiac
Fargo Region
3. Maine
6. Denver
11. Connecticut
15. Minnesota State
Manchester Region
4. Minnesota
5. Providence
12. Michigan
13. New Hampshire
Last teams in (at-large): New Hampshire, Michigan
First teams out (at-large): Arizona State, St. Cloud State
