Welcome to Week 2 of Bracketology.
Each week from now until Selection Sunday, March 23, I will outline the current 16 teams in the Men’s NCAA Division I tournament and attempt to seed a bracket based on the current field.
This past weekend was a little volatile for the PairWise Rankings. The top two teams, Michigan State and Boston College, swapped spot with the Eagles jumping to the top. At the bottom, New Hampshire dropped two games to Boston University and fell out of the field of 16, while Arizona State, with a sweep of St. Cloud State, moved into the field.
Here are the 16 teams for the tournament if the season ended today:
1. Boston College
2. Michigan State*
3. Minnesota
4. Denver
5. Western Michigan*
6. Maine
7. Providence
8. Boston University*
9. Connecticut
10. Ohio State
11. Michigan
12. Arizona State
13. UMass Lowell
14. Quinnipiac*
15. Minnesota State*
16. Sacred Heart*
* – Indicates team that currently has the top conference winning percentage in their respective conference. While each conference is awarded an autobid for its tournament champion, for the purposes of this exercise we will use the first-place team (based on winning %) to receive the autobid.
With the field of 16 in place, we can now seed the four regions using basic bracket integrity (1 vs. 16, 2 vs. 15, 3 vs. 14, etc.).
1. Boston College
8. Boston University
9. Connecticut
16. Sacred Heart
2. Michigan State
7. Providence
10. Ohio State
15. Minnesota State
3. Minnesota
6. Maine
11. Michigan
14. Quinnipiac
4. Denver
5. Western Michigan
12. Arizona State
13. UMass Lowell
As a reminder and also for those who aren’t regular readers of Bracketology, there is one thing that the committee seems to avoid at all costs and that is first-round matchups between teams from the same conference. In the above bracket, we have two: 8 Boston University vs. 9 Connecticut and 5 Western Michigan against 12 Arizona State.
The good news is that these are both 2-seed vs. 3-seed matchups, thus swapping teams out of each matchup erases the conflict. In these situations, I typically like to move the lower seeds, in this case Connecticut and Arizona State as opposed to moving the higher seeds (BU and Western Michigan).
Making that swap we have the following four regional brackets:
1. Boston College
8. Boston University
12. Arizona State
16. Sacred Heart
2. Michigan State
7. Providence
10. Ohio State
15. Minnesota State
3. Minnesota
6. Maine
11. Michigan
14. Quinnipiac
4. Denver
5. Western Michigan
9. Connecticut
13. UMass Lowell
It may not seem fair that Western Michigan is now playing the ninth seed in the tournament as opposed to the 12th seed. But this is the only viable swap we can make while maintaining each team’s seeding band within the region (i.e. No. 2 seeds remaining No. 2 seeds and can’t move up to a No. 1 seed or down to a No. 3 seed).
So with this bracket in place, Let’s assign regions to each four-team group. When considering this, we must place host schools in the region they are hosting. Right now, none of the four hosts are in the field (New Hampshire, Bowling Green, North Dakota and Penn State). So that’s not an issue this week.
Boston College is the top seed and should play closest to home in Manchester, N.H. Michigan State is the second seed and the closest region is Toledo, Ohio, less than two hours from Lansing. Minnesota is the third overall seed and would head to Fargo, N.D., which leaves Denver to play in Allentown, Pa.
That gives us the following:
Manchester Region
1. Boston College
2. Boston University
3. Arizona State
4. Sacred Heart
Toledo Region
1. Michigan State
2. Providence
3. Ohio State
4. Minnesota State
Fargo Region
1. Minnesota
2. Maine
3. Michigan
4. Quinnipiac
Allentown Region
1. Denver
2. Western Michigan
3. Connecticut
4. UMass Lowell
Let’s look at how attendance should be in each region. Manchester is fine with BC, BU and Sacred Heart (and Arizona State has a sprawling alumni base nationally). Toledo should be okay with both Michigan State and Ohio State. Fargo is a concern, though Minnesota is one of the closest teams to Fargo not named North Dakota. Hopefully Michigan’s faithful will travel a little too.
The concerning region is Allentown, but in reality as long as Penn State doesn’t make the field, drawing in Allentown will be a struggle. UConn is about four hours away by car and Lowell is about five. You can’t expect Denver or Western Michigan fans to travel far, so that would likely be friends and family bolstering the crowd.
All that said, this is about as good as we can do for this week.
Here is the final bracket:
Manchester Region
1. Boston College
2. Boston University
3. Arizona State
4. Sacred Heart
Toledo Region
1. Michigan State
2. Providence
3. Ohio State
4. Minnesota State
Fargo Region
1. Minnesota
2. Maine
3. Michigan
4. Quinnipiac
Allentown Region
1. Denver
2. Western Michigan
3. Connecticut
4. UMass Lowell
Last in: UMass Lowell, Arizona State
First out: New Hampshire, Massachusetts**
** – Wisconsin, Northeastern both ranked higher in PairWise but not tournament eligible right now as current record is below .500
