Welcome to Week 3 of Bracketology.
Each week from now until Selection Sunday, March 23, I will outline the current 16 teams in the Men’s NCAA Division I tournament and attempt to seed a bracket based on the current field.
This past weekend was majorly beneficial to one team: Connecticut. The Huskies won the Connecticut Ice tournament win regulation wins over Quinnipiac and Sacred Heart. The Quinnipiac win is considered a neutral-ice win, while the win over Sacred Heart is a road win as the games were played at Sacred Heart’s arena.
The Huskies two wins catapulted them all the way to the fourth spot in the PairWise, meaning that if the season ended today, UConn would be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. That’s remarkable when you consider that when the month of January began, UConn wasn’t even in the projected NCAA field (they were 18th in the PairWise on January 1.
UConn gained 14 spots by posting a 6-0-1 mark since the start of 2025. Absolutely remarkable.
All that said, here are the 16 teams who would qualify for the NCAA tournament if the season ended today:
1. Boston College*
2. Michigan State*
3. Minnesota
4. Connecticut
5. Maine
6. Western Michigan*
7. Denver
8. Providence
9. UMass Lowell
10. Boston University
11. Ohio State
12. Michigan
13. Quinnipiac*
14. Arizona State
15. Minnesota State*
16. Sacred Heart
* – Indicates team that currently has the top conference winning percentage in their respective conference. While each conference is awarded an autobid for its tournament champion, for the purposes of this exercise we will use the first-place team (based on winning %) to receive the autobid.
With the field of 16 in place, we can now seed the four regions using basic bracket integrity (1 vs. 16, 2 vs. 15, 3 vs. 14, etc.).
1. Boston College
8. Providence
9. UMass Lowell
16. Sacred Heart
2. Michigan State
7. Denver
10. Boston University
15. Minnesota State
3. Minnesota
6. Western Michigan
11. Ohio State
14. Arizona State
4. Connecticut
5. Maine
12. Michigan
13. Quinnipiac
As a reminder and also for those who aren’t regular readers of Bracketology, there is one thing that the committee seems to avoid at all costs and that is first-round matchups between teams from the same conference. In the above bracket, we have one: 8 Providence vs. 9 UMass Lowell.
It is possible to make a swap of 9 UMass Lowell and 11 Ohio State that will clear up that interconference matchup. Another option of the committee would be to switch 8 Providence with 7 Denver. I tend to like to switch the the lower seed to reward the higher seed.
Making that swap we have the following four regional brackets:
1. Boston College
8. Providence
11. Ohio State
16. Sacred Heart
2. Michigan State
7. Denver
10. Boston University
15. Minnesota State
3. Minnesota
6. Western Michigan
9. UMass Lowell
14. Arizona State
4. Connecticut
5. Maine
12. Michigan
13. Quinnipiac
With this bracket in place, Let’s assign regions to each four-team group. When considering this, we must place host schools in the region they are hosting. Right now, none of the four hosts are in the field (New Hampshire, Bowling Green, North Dakota and Penn State). So that’s not an issue this week.
Boston College is the top seed and should play closest to home in Manchester, N.H. Michigan State is the second seed and the closest region is Toledo, Ohio, less than two hours from Lansing. Minnesota is the third overall seed and would head to Fargo, N.D., which leaves Connecticut to play in Allentown, Pa.
That gives us the following:
Manchester Region
1. Boston College
2. Providence
3. Ohio State
4. Sacred Heart
Toledo Region
1. Michigan State
2. Denver
3. Boston University
4. Minnesota State
Fargo Region
1. Minnesota
2. Western Michigan
3. UMass Lowell
4. Arizona State
Allentown Region
1. Connecticut
2. Maine
3. Michigan
4. Quinnipiac
Let’s look at how attendance should be in each region. Manchester is fine with BC, Providence and Sacred Heart. Toledo should be okay with both Michigan State, but having Denver, BU and Minnesota State isn’t the easiest travel for those fan bases. Fargo is a concern, though as we mentioned last week, Minnesota is one of the closest teams to Fargo not named North Dakota. Arizona State has a strong national fan base as well.
The concerning region remains Allentown. As we said last week, as long as Penn State doesn’t make the field, drawing in Allentown will be a struggle. UConn is about four hours away by car and Quinnipiac an hour closer. Maine travels well but not that well and Michigan, though a national presence, it’s hard to count on them to help with attendance.
Is there anything we can do? Not really. When we look at the 16-team field, we’re already sending two of the closest teams geographically to Allentown (UConn, Quinnipiac).
So with that, let’s leave this alone for this week.
Here is the final bracket:
Manchester Region
1. Boston College
2. Providence
3. Ohio State
4. Sacred Heart
Toledo Region
1. Michigan State
2. Denver
3. Boston University
4. Minnesota State
Fargo Region
1. Minnesota
2. Western Michigan
3. UMass Lowell
4. Arizona State
Allentown Region
1. Connecticut
2. Maine
3. Michigan
4. Quinnipiac
Last in: Arizona State, Michigan
First out: New Hampshire, Massachusetts**
** – Wisconsin ranks higher in PairWise but not tournament eligible right now as current record is below .500
