Welcome to Week 4 of Bracketology.
Each week from now until Selection Sunday, March 23, I will outline the current 16 teams in the men’s NCAA Division I tournament and attempt to seed a bracket based on the current field.
This past weekend, a few teams really helped themselves with victories. Maine, which played a single game against bubble-team Massachusetts, won 3-2 and moved into one of the top four overall seeds in the NCAA field.
Quinnipiac, which is currently the top ECAC team (and for the purposes of this exercise has been the ECAC representative) moved from the tenuous bubble of the PairWise up to 12th. There is quite a gap from Quinnipiac to the current 11th team UMass Lowell, but it is always better to be at the top of the bubble than the bottom.
Augustana, with a pair of victories over Lake Superior State, now sports the best winning percentage in the CCHA. For the purposes of this exercise, Augustana is the CCHA representative as no team is in the top 16 of the PairWise.
All that said, here are the 16 teams who would qualify for the NCAA tournament if the season ended today:
1. Boston College*
2. Michigan State*
3. Minnesota
4. Maine
5. Western Michigan*
6. Connecticut
7. Providence
8. Denver
9. Boston University
10. UMass Lowell
11. Ohio State
12. Quinnipiac*
13. Arizona State
14. Michigan
15. Augustana*
16. Sacred Heart*
* – Indicates team that currently has the top conference winning percentage in their respective conference. While each conference is awarded an autobid for its tournament champion, for the purposes of this exercise we will use the first-place team (based on winning %) to receive the autobid.
With the field of 16 in place, we can now seed the four regions using basic bracket integrity (1 vs. 16, 2 vs. 15, 3 vs. 14, etc.).
1. Boston College
8. Denver
9. Boston University
16. Sacred Heart
2. Michigan State
7. Providence
10. UMass Lowell
15. Augustana
3. Minnesota
6. Connecticut
11. Ohio State
14. Michigan
4. Maine
5. Western Michigan
12. Quinnipiac
13. Arizona State
As a reminder and also for those who aren’t regular readers of Bracketology, there is one thing that the committee seems to avoid at all costs and that is first-round matchups between teams from the same conference. In the above we have two and both are in the same part of the bracket as 3 Minnesota can’t face 14 Michigan and 7 Providence shouldn’t pair with 10 UMass Lowell.
Let’s start with breaking up Providence and Lowell. This is pretty simple: swap 10 UMass Lowell for 12 Quinnipiac. It’s actually the only swap you can make as any other will still create a matchup of Hockey East teams.
The second conflict is a little trickier to break up Michigan and Minnesota. Ideally, you would align Augustana with Minnesota as that game is almost guaranteed to be played in Fargo, N.D., a little more than three hours from Augustana’s campus in Sioux Falls, S.D. But a simple swap of Michigan and Augustana creates another Big Ten matchup of Michigan and Michigan State.
So how about we swap THREE of the No. 4 seeds? The only one that shouldn’t be touched is the lowest seed in the tournament. That should be reserved for the overall number one seed, Boston College. But the other three can be swapped, so I would pair 15 Augustana vs. 3 Minnesota, 14 Michigan vs. 4 Maine and 13 Arizona State vs. 2 Michigan State.
With that, we have the following bracket:
1. Boston College
8. Denver
9. Boston University
16. Sacred Heart
2. Michigan State
7. Providence
12. Quinnipiac
13. Arizona State
3. Minnesota
6. Connecticut
11. Ohio State
15. Augustana
4. Maine
5. Western Michigan
10. UMass Lowell
14. Michigan
With this bracket in place, Let’s assign regions to each four-team group. When considering this, we must place host schools in the region they are hosting. Right now, none of the four hosts are in the field (New Hampshire, Bowling Green, North Dakota and Penn State). So that’s not an issue this week.
Boston College is the top seed and should play closest to home in Manchester, N.H. Michigan State is the second seed and the closest region is Toledo, Ohio, less than two hours from Lansing. Minnesota is the third overall seed and would head to Fargo, N.D., which leaves Maine to play in Allentown, Pa.
That gives us the following:
Manchester Region
1. Boston College
2. Denver
3. Boston University
4. Sacred Heart
Toledo Region
1. Michigan State
2. Providence
3. Quinnipiac
4. Arizona State
Fargo Region
1. Minnesota
2. Connecticut
3. Ohio State
4. Augustana
Allentown Region
1. Maine
2. Western Michigan
3. UMass Lowell
4. Michigan
Let’s look at how attendance should be in each region. Manchester is fine with BC, BU and Sacred Heart. Toledo should be okay with both Michigan State plus Arizona State has a large global alumni base. Minnesota and Augustana will draw the attendance in Fargo.
The region of concern is Allentown, just like it was last week. Maine and Michigan will bring small crowds, but I don’t know about Western Michigan and UMass Lowell. But there could be a solution.
There is a potential of making another swap of Quinnipiac and Ohio State to set up an opening round game between Quinnipiac and Connecticut, and if that were to occur, it would make sense to move those two teams to Allentown (too bad Bridgeport, Conn., isn’t hosting this year?!). But that requires more movement than is required and is likely overthinking things. So my final bracket
Manchester Region
1. Boston College
2. Denver
3. Boston University
4. Sacred Heart
Toledo Region
1. Michigan State
2. Providence
3. Quinnipiac
4. Arizona State
Fargo Region
1. Minnesota
2. Connecticut
3. Ohio State
4. Augustana
Allentown Region
1. Maine
2. Western Michigan
3. UMass Lowell
4. Michigan
Last in: Arizona State, Michigan
First out: New Hampshire, Massachusetts
