Welcome to Week 5 of Bracketology.
Each week from now until Selection Sunday on March 23, I will outline the current 16 teams in the men’s NCAA Division I tournament and attempt to seed a bracket based on the current field.
This past weekend was a very positive one for a team that is still on the outside looking in: Massachusetts. The Minutemen have moved from 19th to 14th in the last month and took a come-from-behind win at Providence on Friday to help its cause. The 14th spot often is enough to earn the last at-large bid, but right now the AHA, CCHA and ECAC all will rely on their respective tournament champions to represent each league. That moves the cutline to 13th.
Boston University, despite losing on the road in overtime to Merrimack on Friday night, still made a big jump from 10th to 6th thanks to a 4-1 win over No. 1 Boston College in the Beanpot final.
Ohio State posted a two-game sweep of Notre Dame, both games ending in 5-1 finals. The Buckeyes jolted up the PairWise moving from 11th all the way to 7th.
In the last weekend, we also had two teams 100 percent clinch their NCAA tournament bids: Boston College and Michigan State. There is greater than an 85 percent chance these will be the top overall seeds in the NCAA tournament.
All that said, here are the 16 teams who would qualify for the NCAA tournament if the season ended today:
1. Boston College*
2. Michigan State*
3. Minnesota
4. Maine
5. Western Michigan*
6. Boston University
7. Providence
8. Ohio State
9. Connecticut
10. Denver
11. UMass Lowell
12. Michigan
13. Arizona State
14. Quinnipiac*
15. Augustana*
16. Sacred Heart*
* – Indicates team that currently has the top conference winning percentage in their respective conference. While each conference is awarded an autobid for its tournament champion, for the purposes of this exercise we will use the first-place team (based on winning %) to receive the autobid.
With the field of 16 in place, we can now seed the four regions using basic bracket integrity (1 vs. 16, 2 vs. 15, 3 vs. 14, etc.).
1. Boston College
8. Ohio State
9. Connecticut
16. Holy Cross
2. Michigan State
7. Providence
10. Denver
15. Minnesota State
3. Minnesota
6. Boston University
11. UMass Lowell
14. Quinnipiac
4. Maine
5. Western Michigan
12. Michigan
13. Arizona State
As a reminder and also for those who aren’t regular readers of Bracketology, there is one thing that the committee seems to avoid at all costs and that is first-round matchups between teams from the same conference. In the above we have just one as 6 Boston University cannot face 11 UMass Lowell.
There aren’t a ton of options on swapping here, but moving No. 12 Michigan into Lowell’s spot and vice versa. Neither move with positively or negatively impact the attendance in a region, in my opinion.
With that, we have the following bracket:
1. Boston College
8. Ohio State
9. Connecticut
16. Holy Cross
2. Michigan State
7. Providence
10. Denver
15. Minnesota State
3. Minnesota
6. Boston University
12. Michigan
14. Quinnipiac
4. Maine
5. Western Michigan
11. UMass Lowell
13. Arizona State
With this bracket in place, let’s assign regions to each four-team group. When considering this, we must place host schools in the region they are hosting. Right now, none of the four hosts are in the field (New Hampshire, Bowling Green, North Dakota and Penn State). So that’s not an issue this week.
Boston College is the top seed and should play closest to home in Manchester, N.H. Michigan State is the second seed and the closest region is Toledo, Ohio, less than two hours from Lansing. Minnesota is the third overall seed and would head to Fargo, N.D., which leaves Maine to play in Allentown, Pa.
That gives us the following:
Manchester, N.H.
1. Boston College
8. Ohio State
9. Connecticut
16. Holy Cross
Toledo, Ohio
2. Michigan State
7. Providence
10. Denver
15. Minnesota State
Fargo, N.D.
3. Minnesota
6. Boston University
12. Michigan
14. Quinnipiac
Allentown, Penn.
4. Maine
5. Western Michigan
11. UMass Lowell
13. Arizona State
Let’s look at how attendance should be in each region. Manchester is fine with BC, UConn and Holy Cross. Toledo should be okay with both Michigan State and Ohio State (playing in its home state). Minnesota and maybe Michigan could help draw in Fargo.
Once again, Allentown really concerns me. None of the four teams will help the attendance, but of the teams in the field, only Quinnipiac or Connecticut are significantly closer than any team already in the region. That said, it wouldn’t make too much of a difference if Quinnipiac played in Allentown or Fargo, so let’s swap Quinnipiac with Arizona State. I’m not sure it will help that significantly but it’s worth the effort.
That leaves us as follows:
Manchester Region
1. Boston College
2. Ohio State
3. Connecticut
4. Holy Cross
Toledo Region
1. Michigan State
2. Providence
3. Denver
4. Minnesota State
Fargo Region
1. Minnesota
2. Boston University
3. Michigan
4. Arizona State
Allentown Region
1. Maine
2. Western Michigan
3. UMass Lowell
4. Quinnipiac
Last in: Arizona State, Michigan
First out: Massachusetts, Penn State
Keep an eye on: Penn State. The Nittany Lions continue to surge up the PairWise, now a bubble team. Should Penn State qualify, they will play in the Allentown Region as the host.
