Welcome to Week 6 of Bracketology.
Each week from now until Selection Sunday on March 23, I will outline the current 16 teams in the men’s NCAA Division I tournament and attempt to seed a bracket based on the current field.
This past weekend, it was Massachusetts that helped its case the most. A bubble team heading into the weekend, UMass played its way inside the PairWise bubble for the moment with a series split against No. 1 Boston College. The UMass win came on the road, giving the Minutemen enough bonus points to move to 13th in the PairWise.
Ohio State also helped its cause with a two-game sweep over Wisconsin. The Buckeyes have won four straight to start the month of February and are now sixth overall in the PairWise.
As we mentioned in last Tuesday’s bracketology, Boston College and Michigan State have clinched their bids. After this past weekend, we can add three teams to the list of clinched bids as Minnesota, Maine and Western Michigan are now secure in the tournament field.
All that said, here are the 16 teams who would qualify for the NCAA tournament if the season ended today:
1. Boston College*
2. Michigan State*
3. Minnesota
4. Maine
5. Western Michigan*
6. Ohio State
7. Boston University
8. Providence
9. Connecticut
10. Denver
11. UMass Lowell
12. Michigan
13. Massachusetts
14. Quinnipiac*
15. Minnesota State*
16. Holy Cross*
* – Indicates team that currently has the top conference winning percentage in their respective conference. While each conference is awarded an autobid for its tournament champion, for the purposes of this exercise we will use the first-place team (based on winning %) to receive the autobid.
With the field of 16 in place, we can now seed the four regions using basic bracket integrity (1 vs. 16, 2 vs. 15, 3 vs. 14, etc.).
1. Boston College
8. Providence
9. Connecticut
16. Holy Cross
2. Michigan State
7. Boston University
10. Denver
15. Minnesota State
3. Minnesota
6. Ohio State
11. UMass Lowell
14. Quinnipiac
4. Maine
5. Western Michigan
12. Michigan
13. Massachusetts
As a reminder and also for those who aren’t regular readers of Bracketology, there is one thing that the committee seems to avoid at all costs and that is first-round matchups between teams from the same conference. In the above we have two: 8 Providence and 9 Connecticut as well as 4 Maine and 13 Massachusetts.
The Maine/UMass conflict is easy to fix. Simply switch 13 Massachusetts with 14 Quinnipiac (you’ll see as you read on that this works out in more ways than one). The second inter-conference first round matchup isn’t as easy to fix.
9 Connecticut can’t face 8 Providence, another Hockey East opponent. But switching UConn with 10 Denver or 11 UMass Lowell creates additional Hockey East first-round matchups, making the only switch possible that solves the inter-conference issue is to swap 9 UConn with 12 Michigan.
I don’t love this move. Both teams are in the same “band,” in other words both are 3-seeds in the tournament. But to switch UConn and Michigan, you’re basically moving one team up three positions (Michigan from 12 to 9) while moving UConn down three slots. But if you want to avoid having Hockey East teams play in the first-round, this is the only solution.
With that, we have the following bracket:
1. Boston College
8. Providence
12. Michigan
16. Holy Cross
2. Michigan State
7. Boston University
10. Denver
15. Minnesota State
3. Minnesota
6. Ohio State
11. UMass Lowell
13. Massachusetts
4. Maine
5. Western Michigan
9. Connecticut.
14. Quinnipiac
With this bracket in place, let’s assign regions to each four-team group. When considering this, we must place host schools in the region they are hosting. Right now, none of the four hosts are in the field (New Hampshire, Bowling Green, North Dakota and Penn State). So that’s not an issue this week.
Boston College is the top seed and should play closest to home in Manchester, N.H. Michigan State is the second seed and the closest region is Toledo, Ohio, less than two hours from Lansing. Minnesota is the third overall seed and would head to Fargo, N.D., which leaves Maine to play in Allentown, Pa.
That gives us the following:
Manchester Region
1. Boston College
8. Providence
12. Michigan
16. Holy Cross
Toledo Region
2. Michigan State
7. Boston University
10. Denver
15. Minnesota State
Fargo Region
3. Minnesota
6. Ohio State
11. UMass Lowell
13. Massachusetts
Allentown Region
4. Maine
5. Western Michigan
9. Connecticut
14. Quinnipiac
Now, we need to take into consideration how the four teams in each region will impact attendance. Manchester is fine with BC, Providence and Holy Cross. Minnesota will help draw in Fargo. Allentown has been an issue every week we’ve published the column, but having Quinnipiac (2+ hours) and Connecticut (3+ hours), you at least have two teams that are driving distance to Allentown.
Toledo will have good attendance with Michigan State, but it seems strange to have an Ohio-based team in Ohio State in the field but not playing currently slotted for Toledo. Can we get Ohio State closer to home?
We can’t make a simple switch of 6 Ohio State and 7 Boston University as that would set up a first-round game between BU and UMass Lowell in Fargo. But what if we moved the entire first-round pairing between the two regions. In other words, move the BU/Denver game from Toledo to Fargo and move Ohio State and UMass Lowell to Toledo. You’ll likely bolster the Toledo attendance with the Ohio State fanbase, while all of the other moves (Denver, BU, UML) all will have little to no negative impact on attendance.
Making that move, it gives us our final bracket:
Manchester Region
1. Boston College
2. Providence
3. Michigan
4. Holy Cross
Toledo Region
1. Michigan State
2. Ohio State
3. UMass Lowell
4. Minnesota State
Fargo Region
1. Minnesota
2. Boston University
3. Denver
4. Massachusetts
Allentown Region
1. Maine
2. Western Michigan
3. Connecticut
4. Quinnipiac
Last in: Michigan, Massachusetts
First out: Arizona State, Penn State
Keep an eye on: Arizona State. They’ll host Western Michigan for two games this weekend where a sweep likely moves the Sun Devils back into the tournament field.
