Magic is a fickle thing.
A week ago, the only Big Ten team mathematically capable of finishing first in the conference while controlling its own destiny was Minnesota. Entering the weekend, the Golden Gophers were five points behind first-place Michigan State with two games in hand on the Spartans, who had a bye.
In their previous two weekends, the Spartans had split with B1G opponents, giving the Gophers just enough of a chance to overtake them last week. In a road series against Michigan last weekend, though, Minnesota lost and tied, securing only two points and erasing the Gophers’ season-ending magic numbers.
For now, that is.
This weekend, Minnesota is at home against Ohio State, the team with whom the Gophers are tied for second place in the B1G standings. The Gophers and Buckeyes are each three points – one little game – out of first place, but neither can get there without help from the team at the top.
And once again, the Spartans control their own destiny. If Michigan State wins three of its four remaining games, the Spartans will take the regular-season crown. That’s the good news.
The bad news is that Michigan State begins this final run with a home series against Penn State this weekend.
“We’ve had a couple good weeks of practice and the chance to get a little bit healthy … down the home stretch here,” said Spartans coach Adam Nightingale in his weekly press conference.
“We’re playing a really good Penn State team, you could argue maybe the hottest team in the country and fighting for their life to make the tournament, so it’ll be a heck of a weekend.”
The Nittany Lions have gone 7-2-3 in the second half of the season, most recently sweeping Notre Dame at home. Riding a four-game winning streak into East Lansing, this confident Penn State team has already beaten the Spartans once. The Nittany Lions’ two losses in their current hot streak have come to Michigan State and Michigan on split weekends.
The Spartans will honor their seniors Saturday night, an added incentive for play this weekend.
“It goes by fast,” said Nightingale. “When you look back at your college career, it happens quick. You think you’ve got a whole bunch of time and all of a sudden it’s senior night, so those guys will be excited to play.”
Nightingale said that he’s grateful that this year’s seniors have been rewarded for buying into the vision for Michigan State hockey that he and his coaching staff brought to the program three season ago. When seniors Tanner Kelly and David Gucciardi were freshmen, there were some quiet nights in Munn Ice Arena. That was 2021-22, when the Spartans finished with six Big Ten wins and 12 overall.
Nightingale said that the fans will make a big difference in this weekend’s series, especially Saturday night.
“We’re not a perfect team,” said Nightingale, “but they do like watching our team play.”
Heading into the weekend against Penn State, the Michigan State coaching staff is working to help the Spartans focus on Friday and nothing more.
“It’s always the next game,” said Nightingale. “I think our guys have done a great job these last two weeks. We practiced hard. I think we owe it to our guys, our young hockey players. They’ve got dreams of not only finishing our season on a high note but also keeping growing as players.
“This time of year, as much as you want to pull back, you’ve got to keep pushing. They got to do their part, resting and eating the right way and being locked in, but they’ve given us everything we’ve asked in practice.”
The Spartans have more on the line than Big Ten laurels as the season winds down. Michigan State is shoo-in for the NCAA tournament, but the Spartans – who sit at No. 2 in the PairWise Rankings – want to finish as high as possible for postseason seeding.
”The guys have done a good job where you’re playing meaningful games down the stretch,” said Nightingale. “Obviously, right around the corner is the Big Ten tournament and the NCAA tournament.
“We’ve just got to try to keep playing our best hockey. I think that’s the goal for our group. We want to make sure that when we play, the other team sees our best, and that’s not easy to do in our conference, night in and night out.”
Penn State is No. 16 in the PWR. While the top 16 teams make the tournament, the Nittany Lions will not be in without some help from teams around them and without capitalizing on their own chances.
The 15th and 16th seeds in the NCAA tournament will likely be winners of the Atlantic Hockey and CCHA playoff championships. Neither conference has a team currently among the top 16 PWR teams, and conference playoff championships convey an NCAA tournament autobid.
It’s mathematically impossible for the Spartans to finish any lower than third place in B1G standings and it’s mathematically impossible for Penn State to finish higher than fourth – but that fourth-place finish would mean first-round Big Ten playoff home ice, so that’s another incentive for the Nittany Lions.
To get there, though, the Nittany Lions would likely need a little help from the Buckeyes, who host Michigan in the final weekend of season. The Wolverines have the bye this week and sit six points ahead of Penn State.
The two other Big Ten series this weekend have Minnesota hosting Ohio State and Wisconsin hosting Notre Dame.
Like Michigan State, both Minnesota and Ohio State are in the NCAA tournament already, so each is chasing a regular-season conference title as well as seeding as high as possible in postseason play. The Gophers are third in the PWR, the Buckeyes sixth.
Wisconsin’s series against Notre Dame this weekend is the last time the Badgers will play before the Big Ten playoffs as they have a bye in the final week. The Badgers and the Fighting Irish would need to win the Big Ten playoffs championship to advance to the NCAA tournament.
The Nittany Lions and Spartans face off at 6:00 p.m. Friday and Saturday nights in Munn Ice Arena. Both games are carried by the Big Ten Network.
The Golden Gophers host the Buckeyes in 3M Arena at Mariucci at 7 p.m. CT Friday and 5 p.m. CT. Both games are carried locally on Fox 9, and both are streaming on Big Ten Plus.
The Badgers and Fighting Irish meet in the Kohl Center at 7:30 p.m. CT both Friday and Saturday nights, and those games can also be seen on the Big Ten Network.
