Welcome to Week 8 of Bracketology.
Each week from now until Selection Sunday on March 23, I will outline the current 16 teams in the men’s NCAA Division I tournament and attempt to seed a bracket based on the current field.
Last week, we told you about the possibilities that existed for Penn State, the host school in Allentown which entered this past weekend below the PairWise bubble. Well, an overtime win (coupled with a regulation loss) was enough to take the Nittany Lions to the right side of the cutline. That will impact the Allentown Region, as you’ll see below.
At this point, the top five teams have not changed in weeks. Not only are all five teams the same, their exact position has been unchanged. This week, in fact, the top eight teams remain completely unchanged from a week ago.
If there is one team that might be beneficial to attendance if they move down, it’s Maine. We’ll explain that later.
All that said, here are the 16 teams who would qualify for the NCAA tournament if the season ended today:
1. Boston College*
2. Michigan State*
3. Minnesota
4. Maine
5. Western Michigan*
6. Providence
7. Boston University
8. Connecticut
9. Ohio State
10. Denver
11. Michigan
12. Massachusetts
13. Quinnipiac*
14. Penn State
15. Minnesota State*
16. Holy Cross*
* – Indicates team that currently has the top conference winning percentage in their respective conference. While each conference is awarded an autobid for its tournament champion, for the purposes of this exercise we will use the first-place team (based on winning %) to receive the autobid.
With the field of 16 in place, we can now seed the four regions using basic bracket integrity (1 vs. 16, 2 vs. 15, 3 vs. 14, etc.).
1. Boston College
8. Connecticut
9. Ohio State
16. Holy Cross
2. Michigan State
7. Boston University
10. Denver
15. Minnesota State
3. Minnesota
6. Providence
11. Michigan
14. Penn State
4. Maine
5. Western Michigan
12. Massachusetts
13. Quinnipiac
As a reminder and also for those who aren’t regular readers of Bracketology, there is one thing that the committee seems to avoid at all costs and that is first-round matchups between teams from the same conference. This week, we have just one: 3 Minnesota vs. 14 Penn State. Swapping Penn State with Quinnipiac is a simple shift that takes care of this and, as we’re about to see, it helps the next step.
We now need to assign regions to each four-team bracket. With Penn State as the host team in Allentown, they need to play there. The great news, though, is they are grouped with 4 Maine, the lowest of the number one seeds, and that bracket would have been assigned to Allentown by regardless of the host.
Boston College is the top seed and should play closest to home in Manchester, N.H. Michigan State is the second seed and the closest region is Toledo, Ohio, less than two hours from Lansing. Minnesota is the third overall seed and would head to Fargo, N.D.
That gives us the following:
Manchester Region
1. Boston College
8. Connecticut
9. Ohio State
16. Holy Cross
Toledo Region
2. Michigan State
7. Boston University
10. Denver
15. Minnesota State
Fargo Region
3. Minnesota
6. Providence
11. Michigan
13. Quinnipiac
Allentown Region
4. Maine
5. Western Michigan
12. Massachusetts
14. Penn State
With the four regions set, we now can look at how attendance will be impacted by the participating teams in each region. Regular readers know this is where we often get creative in hopes of creating better atmospheres in each region.
There isn’t much we can do here to improve things. One switch we could make would get Ohio State playing in their home state and the Toledo Region (Bowling Green is the host in Toledo). A swap with Denver would accomplish that, so let’s make that move. But that’s all I can suggest for this week.
Thus, we have this final bracket.
Manchester Region
1. Boston College
2. Connecticut
3. Denver
4. Holy Cross
Toledo Region
1. Michigan State
2. Boston University
3. Ohio State
4. Minnesota State
Fargo Region
1. Minnesota
2. Providence
3. Michigan
4. Quinnipiac
Allentown Region
1. Maine
2. Western Michigan
3. Massachusetts
4. Penn State
Last in: Penn State, Massachusetts
First out: UMass Lowell, Arizona State
Keep an eye on: Maine. The Black Bears are the final number one seed, but in a way it feels like the fan base in Orono might be rooting for their team to drop down to 5th in the PairWise. Why, you ask? If Maine remains a number one seed, there is no chance they will play in Manchester, a regional that is significantly closer to campus than any other. But if Maine falls to five or six in the PairWise, there would be the ability to move the Black Bears closer to home.
