Toledo Regional, March 27-29 | Huntington Center, Toledo, Ohio
No. 2 Boston University (21-13-2) vs. No. 3 Ohio State (24-13-2) | March 27, 2 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
No. 1 Michigan State (26-6-4) vs. No. 4 Cornell (18-10-6) | March 27, 5:30 p.m. ET, (ESPN+)
Toledo Regional Championship | March 29, 4 p.m. or 6:30 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
MICHIGAN STATE
How they got here: Won Big Ten tournament, 2nd in final PairWise
Overall season record: 26-6-4
Top players: F Isaac Howard (26-25-51), F Karsen Dorwart (12-17-29), F Charlie Stramel (9-17-26), D Matt Basgall (6-20-26), G Trey Augustine (19-6-4, 2.01 GAA, .927 SV%)
Why they will advance to the Frozen Four: Where to start with these Spartans? Michigan State is a well-oiled machine with perhaps the fewest weak spots of any team in the NCAA tournament field. They have arguably the best player in the nation in Isaac Howard, but he doesn’t have to do anything alone. Every big player showed up when the Spartans needed them to in the Big Ten playoffs, and that’s the mark of a team playing peak hockey. With the nation’s eighth-best offense (3.50), fourth-best defense (2.03) and solid special teams, Michigan State is as ready as any team can be for a run to a national title. Plus, the Frozen Four is in St. Louis, where the Spartans won their last national title.
Why they won’t advance to the Frozen Four: It is difficult to make an argument against the Spartans advancing to the Frozen Four. That’s not to say that they’ll emerge from this bracket nor that they’ll get past Cornell in the first game, but Michigan State did not lose consecutive games once this season, but in every weekend in which they split with opponents, they lost the first game. The Spartans are never unprepared, but first games seem to be their only vulnerability, something that a new opponent like Cornell may be able to exploit. Should they get past Cornell and should they face Ohio State in the regional title game, the Buckeyes will have something to say about Michigan State’s chances for advancement.
BOSTON UNIVERSITY
How they got here: At-large bid, 7th in final PairWise
Overall season record: 21-13-2
Top players: F Cole Eiserman (21-11-32), D Cole Hutson (12-28-40), F Ryan Greene (13-20-33), F Quinn Hutson (21-26-47), F Shane Lachance (11-17-28), G Mikhail Yegorov (8-5-1, 1.99, .931 SV%)
Why they will advance to the Frozen Four: The three other teams in the Toledo bracket — Michigan State, Ohio State and Cornell — are a combined 47 years removed from their last Frozen Four appearance. BU’s been to the last two. That experience will definitely help the Terriers.
Why they won’t advance to the Frozen Four: BU was only 6-6-2 vs. the rest of the tournament field this season, including a real clunker in the Hockey East semifinals, a 5-2 loss to Connecticut that had coach Jay Pandolfo publicly questioning his team’s effort in post-game interviews. That’s not the way the Terriers wanted to go into the NCAA tournament.
OHIO STATE
How they got here: At-large bid, tied for 10th in the final PairWise
Overall season record: 24-13-2
Top players: F Gunnarwolfe Fontaine (17-23-40), F Riley Thompson (17-16-33), Davis Burnside (14-19-33), D Aiden Hansen-Bukata (2-27-29), F Damien Carfagna (7-21-28), G Logan Terness (12-9-1, 2.27 GAA, .925 SV%), G Kristoffer Eberly (12-4-1, 2.28 GAA, .915 SV%)
Why they will advance to the Frozen Four: The under-the-radar Buckeyes are a battle-tested team with an axe to grind, making them dangerous in several ways. They came back in the third period against Michigan State in the Big Ten title game and took the Spartans to double overtime. They didn’t look crushed after that game; they looked mad and frustrated. Three of their last four B1G playoff games went to OT. The Buckeyes have outshot opponents 53-35 in third-period play and they’re 5-2-0 in overtime. Logan Terness split net time with Kristoffer Eberly for much of the year but has played all but two games since Feb. 7, and Terness looked pretty darned good against Michigan State. If they’re underestimated in their first game, they’ll advance to the regional final – at the very least.
Why they won’t advance to the Frozen Four: The easiest thing to say is that Ohio State will lose to Michigan State in the regional final, but that really takes a lot for granted. Should both B1G teams advance to that game, Ohio State will remember how well they played in the third period and first OT Big Ten championship game, but they should also remember how they faded in the second overtime when they didn’t have enough in the tank. They’ll certainly remember how they took four first-period penalties in that contest and gave up two power-play goals, uncharacteristic for a team that averages fewer than eight PIMs per game. On paper, the Buckeyes are an average team offensively and defensively, and their special teams leave much to be desired. In close games – whether against Boston University or Michigan State – their special teams can be their downfall.
CORNELL
How they got here: Won the ECAC Hockey tournament, 17th in final Pairwise
Overall season record: 18-10-6
Top players: F Ryan Walsh (14-14-28), F Dalton Bancroft (14-14-28), F Ondrej Psenicka (9-13-22), D Tim Rego (8-14-22), F Sullivan Mack (8-12-20), G Ian Shane (16-10-6, 2.17 GAA, .902 sv%)
Why they will advance to the Frozen Four: The Big Red are finally healthy and hitting their stride after spending most of the season with a choppy or short-handed lineup. Getting to 18 wins and an ECAC championship took artwork from head coach Mike Schafer, but the last ride of a classic college hockey renegade included six straight wins and five in the postseason with a 9-2-0 overall record since Valentine’s Day. Playing Michigan State is no picnic for the first round, but Cornell is rounding into the team that narrowly missed eliminating Denver from last year’s tournament. If there’s a first round upset, one of the hottest teams in college hockey would face either Boston University, which has been incredibly up-and-down, or Ohio State, which would provide a game atmosphere perfect for a Cornell program rallying around its retiring legend.
Why they won’t advance to the Frozen Four: Cornell won ECAC as the No. 6 seed, and gaining steam against ECAC isn’t the same as playing the No. 2 team in the nation. None of the metrics favor the Big Red compared to top-seeded Michigan State, and the Spartans’ recent win over Ohio State illustrated the difficulty in getting past any Big Ten team. It would take a massive upset to prevent Michigan State from reaching its first Frozen Four in 18 years, but this region has arguably the toughest road through the possible second game against either the Buckeyes or the BU team that found its groove in the second half of the season.
