{"id":126697,"date":"2021-03-04T15:30:20","date_gmt":"2021-03-04T21:30:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/?p=126697"},"modified":"2021-03-04T14:55:43","modified_gmt":"2021-03-04T20:55:43","slug":"bracketology-with-more-games-played-what-teams-are-in-out-of-the-upcoming-ncaa-mens-hockey-tournament","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/2021\/03\/04\/bracketology-with-more-games-played-what-teams-are-in-out-of-the-upcoming-ncaa-mens-hockey-tournament\/","title":{"rendered":"Bracketology: With more games played, what teams are in, out of the upcoming NCAA men’s hockey tournament?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>
Would Boston University and high-end defenseman David Farrance make the NCAA tournament if the event began today? (photo: Rich Gagnon).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Last week, in the inaugural edition of Bracketology for the 2020-21 season<\/a>, Jim and Jayson attempted to layout their potential field for this year\u2019s NCAA Division I Men\u2019s Ice Hockey tournament.<\/p>\n

Jim took an approach that attempted to rank the six conferences and pick teams based on that using a recent memo (see below) from the men\u2019s ice hockey committee.<\/p>\n

Jayson decided to take a different route, allowing each conference to place their top two teams in the tournament and then filling the final four spots based on winning percentages, without any conference bias whatsoever.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s see how these two approach this week:<\/p>\n

As mentioned last week, at-large selection of teams will change. Based on the extremely limited amount of inter-conference play, it is very difficult to compare one league to another and thus, one team to another.<\/p>\n

The NCAA has attempted to clarify the process. In a memo from the NCAA that was issued on February 16, it states:<\/p>\n

\u201cDue to the limited number of inter-conference games played this year, the committee has determined that the statistical value of the PairWise and RPI is not what it is in a typical year. As a result, the committee will not be using a strict PairWise comparisons as the sole determinant for at-large selection and seeding<\/strong>; however, the various criteria that have made up the PairWise and the RPI will be the primary basis for consideration by the committee in its selection and seeding process.<\/p>\n

The criteria include:
\n\u2022 Won\/Loss Record
\n\u2022 Strength of Schedule
\n\u2022 Head-to-Head Results
\n\u2022 Results vs. Common Opponents
\n\u2022 Quality Wins
\n\u2022 Home\/Away Weighting<\/p>\n

Due to the unusual nature of this year\u2019s selection process, the committee will institute the use of two regional advisory committees comprised of six members each. Three national committee members from each region, as well as additional coach from each conference in the region, will serve on the regional advisory committees. The representatives were provided to the committee based on recommendations from the conference commissioners. These committees will assist in the observation and evaluation of teams and provide recommendations to the national committee.\u201d<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s attempt to translate.<\/p>\n

Basically, the PairWise, as we all know it can be thrown out. But the criteria used to establish the PairWise can and will be used to rank teams, particularly within each conference. From there, though, there will be an \u201ceye test\u201d provided by two regional committees that will help the six-member NCAA committee select the field.<\/p>\n

Thus, in this year\u2019s Brackteology, Jim Connelly and Jayson Moy will work each week to give their best guesses based on games played to date, which teams should qualify for the 16-team field.<\/p>\n

Jim: Well, Jayson, you stirred the pot last week when you placed three teams from Atlantic Hockey in the 16-team field but just two from the Big Ten. So I\u2019m curious to see if you\u2019ll use the same approach this week.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m going to try to remain consistent, at least in my approach. Last week, I ranked the conferences and will do that again. I gave them letter grades last week but will change and use tiers this week.<\/p>\n

Tier I: NCHC
\nTier II: Hockey East, Big Ten
\nTier III: ECAC
\nTier IV: WCHA, Atlantic Hockey<\/p>\n

Based on that approach, I want to maximize the number of teams that earn bids in my top two tiers. If possible, I think it is fair to have four teams from the NCHC, Hockey East and Big Ten \u2013 though that might not be easy for the latter two (I\u2019ll explain more in a bit).<\/p>\n

ECAC, with only four teams, shouldn\u2019t have more than one team, in my opinion, unless its leading team, Quinnipiac, doesn\u2019t win the automatic qualifier as conference champion.<\/p>\n

I think the WCHA definitely has a case for two teams, maybe three, while Atlantic Hockey to me already has a lock in AIC and could gain a second team if the Yellow Jackets don\u2019t win the conference tournament.<\/p>\n

So let me begin with placing some of my \u201clocks\u201d into my field. I have 12 thus far.<\/p>\n

NCHC: North Dakota, St. Cloud State, Minnesota Duluth and Omaha
\nHockey East: Boston College, Massachusetts
\nBig Ten: Minnesota, Wisconsin
\nECAC: Quinnipiac
\nWCHA: Minnesota State, Bowling Green
\nAHA: AIC<\/p>\n

One caveat I have is Boston University in Hockey East. At 10-3-0, the Terriers have the sixth-best winning percentage in the nation. But, should BU lose twice this weekend, the final weekend of the regular season and go one-and-done in the conference tournament, I\u2019d be hard pressed to call them a lock at 10-6-0. So right now, I\u2019m holding off on calling BU a lock.<\/p>\n

But with 12 locks, I\u2019ll only have four spots to fill. It won\u2019t be easy, but that\u2019s my approach.<\/p>\n

How are you approaching things this week?<\/p>\n

Jayson: I still like my approach. I know that there are grumblings because of the perceived strength of conferences. But again, and I need to stress this, this is not your typical year and without Inter-Conference play, you just can\u2019t tell who if one conference is better than another. Yes, polls tell you one thing, but is it true? Probably. But in a numbers-driven selection like NCAA Hockey has been, you just can\u2019t go by smoke and mirrors again.<\/p>\n

So here I go again. The top two in each conference:<\/p>\n

Atlantic Hockey \u2013 AIC, Army
\nBig 10 \u2013 Minnesota, Wisconsin
\nECAC \u2013 Quinnipiac, Clarkson
\nHockey East \u2013 Boston College, Boston University
\nNCHC \u2013 North Dakota, St. Cloud State (note: NCHC is using points per game as a seeding mechanism)
\nWCHA \u2013 Minnesota St, Lake Superior<\/p>\n

Third Place Teams<\/p>\n

Atlantic Hockey \u2013 Robert Morris
\nBig 10 \u2013 Michigan
\nECAC \u2013 Colgate (does not qualify due to sub-.500 record)
\nHockey East \u2013 Massachusetts
\nNCHC \u2013 Minnesota-Duluth
\nWCHA \u2013 Bowling Green<\/p>\n

Last week I just went by winning percentage. This week, I will take it a bit further. The tiebreaker for me will be winning percentage vs the top team in the conference. If it\u2019s still tied, then percentage against the second-place team, and so on and so forth.<\/p>\n

Atlantic Hockey \u2013 Robert Morris vs. AIC (DNP)
\nBig 10 \u2013 Michigan vs. Minnesota (0-2 with 2 games left to play this weekend)
\nHockey East \u2013 Massachusetts vs. Boston College (1-2)
\nNCHC \u2013 Minnesota-Duluth vs. North Dakota (0-1-1)
\nWCHA \u2013 Bowling Green vs. Minnesota State (0-2)<\/p>\n

From this, I put Massachusetts and Minnesota-Duluth into the field, as they are the only teams to gain any points from the first-place teams.<\/p>\n

Two more teams to place.<\/p>\n

Atlantic Hockey \u2013 Robert Morris vs. Army (DNP)
\nBig 10 \u2013 Michigan vs. Wisconsin (3-1)
\nWCHA \u2013 Bowling Green vs. Lake Superior (0-2)<\/p>\n

Michigan is placed into the field.<\/p>\n

Now we move onto the records versus the fourth-place teams<\/p>\n

Atlantic Hockey \u2013 Robert Morris vs. Canisius (1-1)
\nWCHA \u2013 Bowling Green vs. Michigan Tech (2-0)<\/p>\n

I place Bowling Green into the field.<\/p>\n

So, my teams are:<\/p>\n

Atlantic Hockey: AIC, Army
\nBig 10: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan
\nECAC: Quinnipiac, Clarkson
\nHockey East: Boston College, Boston University, Massachusetts
\nNCHC: North Dakota, St Cloud, Minnesota-Duluth
\nWCHA: Minnesota St, Lake Superior, Bowling Green<\/p>\n

Seems like the only team I don\u2019t have that you have is Omaha.<\/p>\n

The other wavering I have is Robert Morris. Because it did not play against AIC or Army, it\u2019s tough to actually estimate how it did against those two because of the pods in Atlantic Hockey this season.<\/p>\n

Jim: Again, and interesting approach but in a strange year, I\u2019ll take it.<\/p>\n

I left myself a little work to do and that\u2019s find my last four teams. I\u2019ll start by picking some teams to consider:<\/p>\n

Atlantic Hockey: Robert Morris, Army
\nBig Ten: Michigan, Notre Dame, Penn State
\nECAC: Clarkson
\nHockey East: Boston University, Providence (I\u2019m going to leave off UConn as they are currently under .500)
\nNCHC: None
\nWCHA: Bemidji State, Michigan Tech, Lake Superior<\/p>\n

So right now I have 11 teams for four spots. That\u2019s significant work still to do.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m going to begin by using my league rankings again. NCHC is my top league, but I\u2019ve already placed my four teams from that league into the field. So I\u2019ll move to Big Ten and Hockey East. Two of those teams belong as of today \u2013 Boston University and Michigan. In fact, Michigan is very close to a lock in my mind. BU, not so much. They have a maximum of two losses still possible and it could leave them at 10-5-0. That doesn\u2019t work for me. So BU still needs a win. But we\u2019ll include them for now at 10-3-0.<\/p>\n

That leaves me with two more teams. Providence is clearly on the bubble and I\u2019ll look at ECAC to add Clarkson, another bubble team.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m prepared to eliminate Robert Morris, Army and Lake Superior. And Notre Dame and Penn State, though I could be swayed on whichever of those two end up above .500 (if either) down the line.<\/p>\n

So Providence, Clarkson, Bemidji State and Michigan Tech will fill my final two slots. I\u2019m going to compare Bemidji State and Michigan Tech because those teams are in the same conference. Right now, Bemidji State is ranked higher in the PairWise, despite having a lower winning percentage. The Beavers have played a much tougher schedule with five of their 11 wins coming against the top two teams in the WCHA \u2013 Minnesota State and Bowling Green.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m down to three \u2013 Providence, Clarkson and Bemidji State \u2013 for two slots. Right now, I\u2019m leaning towards eliminating Clarkson as they played much of their season in a four-team conference and earned only six regulation wins in ECAC play, and 11 total wins in 22 games.<\/p>\n

With that, I have my 16 teams.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s stop here this week. Maybe next week we can try to come to a more unified decision and rank these teams in hopes to seeding the regionals.<\/p>\n

Until then\u2026<\/p>\n

Jim\u2019s field this week:<\/p>\n

AHA: AIC
\nBig Ten: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan
\nECAC: Quinnipiac
\nHockey East: Boston College, Massachusetts, Boston University, Providence
\nNCHC: North Dakota, St. Cloud State, Minnesota Duluth and Omaha
\nWCHA: Minnesota State, Bowling Green, Bemidji State<\/p>\n

Jayson\u2019s field this week:<\/p>\n

Atlantic Hockey: AIC, Army
\nBig 10: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan
\nECAC: Quinnipiac, Clarkson
\nHockey East: Boston College, Boston University, Massachusetts
\nNCHC: North Dakota, St Cloud, Minnesota-Duluth
\nWCHA: Minnesota St, Lake Superior, Bowling Green<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Last week, in the inaugural edition of Bracketology for the 2020-21 season, Jim and Jayson attempted to layout their potential field for this year\u2019s NCAA Division I Men\u2019s Ice Hockey tournament.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s see how these two approach this week:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":125307,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[947,4,1],"tags":[812],"coauthors":[869,800],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBracketology: With more games played, what teams are in, out of the upcoming NCAA men's hockey tournament? - College Hockey | USCHO.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Last week, in the inaugural edition of Bracketology for the 2020-21 season, Jim and Jayson attempted to layout their potential field for this year\u2019s NCAA Division I Men\u2019s Ice Hockey tournament. 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