{"id":151659,"date":"2025-03-04T08:00:16","date_gmt":"2025-03-04T14:00:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wwwproxy.uscho.com\/?p=151659"},"modified":"2025-03-03T21:24:51","modified_gmt":"2025-03-04T03:24:51","slug":"tmq-its-conference-playoffs-time-which-means-one-step-closer-to-the-2025-ncaa-mens-hockey-tournament","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwproxy.uscho.com\/2025\/03\/04\/tmq-its-conference-playoffs-time-which-means-one-step-closer-to-the-2025-ncaa-mens-hockey-tournament\/","title":{"rendered":"TMQ: It’s conference playoffs time, which means one step closer to the 2025 NCAA men’s hockey tournament"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"
Penn State could be a tough team to beat should the Nittany Lions make the NCAA tournament (photo: Kylie Barton).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Each week during the season, we look at the big events and big games around Division I men\u2019s college hockey in Tuesday Morning Quarterback.<\/em><\/p>\n

Dan<\/strong>: Another week closer to the NCAA tournament, and another chaotic week of Pairwise juggling in the books.<\/p>\n

First off, it’s good to get back in the saddle here with good buddy Jim Connelly, and it’s for more than just discussing which pizza topping deserves mentions on our weekly USCHO Edge podcast.<\/p>\n

But now that we’ve completed that element of the week, it’s worth diving right back into the stretch run of a college hockey season that’s rapidly approaching its end. In the Big Ten, Minnesota’s four-point weekend included an overtime loss that brought Penn State up to No. 12 in the Pairwise Rankings before a backslide to No. 14, but it opened enough space for the Gophers to pull dead even for the Big Ten title with Michigan State.<\/p>\n

In ECAC Hockey, Quinnipiac did what Quinnipiac does and won the Cleary Cup, but an overtime loss to Clarkson made things a little more interesting on Saturday night.<\/p>\n

In the NCHC, Western Michigan wrapped up a regular season title that I certainly didn’t predict at the start of the year.<\/p>\n

And even out here in our respective Hockey East and Atlantic Hockey races, BC tightened its grip on the No. 1 seed while Canisius, Air Force and AIC advanced through the first round’s chalkboard.<\/p>\n

Where do we even begin, even though I kind of did it with Penn State’s continued run to the bubble…<\/p>\n

Jim<\/strong>: I think Penn State\u2019s run to now get inside of the PairWise bubble is remarkable. This is a team that on January 16 was 31st in the PairWise. Then, in a span of seven weekends, the Nittany Lions posted a record of 10-2-2 while playing teams like Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State and Minnesota. That catapulted them to the current 14th spot, just inside the PairWise bubble.<\/p>\n

The run is remarkable. Add in the fact that Friday\u2019s overtime win against Minnesota was career coaching win No. 400 for Guy Gadowsky, that\u2019s like a cherry on the top.<\/p>\n

Gadowsky\u2019s career is an impressive one. He\u2019s never arrived at a school that was on an upswing. He took Alaska from a six-win team in year one to a 22-win club in his best season in 2002. He took Princeton from eight wins in 2005 to a peak of 22-wins in 2009. And of course, at Penn State, he built a program from scratch that has posted 20 wins five times and will reach that 20-win mark again if they can get past Michigan.<\/p>\n

Which takes me to what might be the best playoff season that\u2019s on the horizon this weekend and it\u2019s a Big Ten quarterfinal with Michigan hosting Penn State. Michigan can probably survive losing the best-of-three series. Penn State cannot (they are about 5% for an at-large if they are eliminated this weekend). That\u2019s a pretty good heavyweight battle for the first full weekend of playoffs.<\/p>\n

Dan<\/strong>: I’m pretty close to guaranteeing that we’ll have one of those lower-seeded upsets occur somewhere along the way, and there are a few dark horses storming around these leagues. Maybe it’s Wisconsin, which really needed to reach the postseason just to reboot the end of its year (play the “fresh start” over the “continue what we’ve been doing” over these past few weeks). Maybe it’s Bemidji State, which is heading to Augustana for the first round of the CCHA tournament.<\/p>\n

Or maybe it’s AIC, which isn’t a lower-three seeded team in Atlantic Hockey but stared down extinction by beating RIT in overtime.<\/p>\n

Or maybe it’s just a lower-seeded team in Hockey East, which is the one league with a format conducive to anyone beating anyone in a year when everyone is pretty darn good.<\/p>\n

You have to hear me out on the reasoning here. The first post-COVID Hockey East tournament sent its four best teams to TD Garden, but each of the last two years sent a team seeded outside of the top four, with the 2023 tournament sending seventh-seeded Providence and fifth-seeded UMass Lowell to its semifinal round.<\/p>\n

Last year, UMass advanced past fourth-seeded Providence, and while the championship game featured the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds from the tournament, each year eliminated someone from the quarterfinals. Extrapolating it even further to the pre-COVID years, remember that No. 7 Boston College advanced to the championship game in 2019, though not every team was part of the tournament during those years.<\/p>\n

I can’t go through each of the leagues in that way, but there’s always someone capable of winning a weird playoff game. Cornell finishing the year in sixth, for example, should make someone plenty scared in ECAC after many expected the Big Red to contend for a league championship. Augustana is a second-place team based on percentages, but we don’t know what to expect for a playoff run that’s wholly unique to the CCHA right now.<\/p>\n

As the playoffs dawn, I’m looking at you for the premier dark horse here. Give me one team that you think might play deep into its postseason, and give me someone that really, really, really needs to watch its back, specifically this week (excluding Hockey East, obviously, which still has to finish its regular season.<\/p>\n

Jim<\/strong>: Well, there is one potential series that I am thinking about that isn\u2019t set in stone and that is in the NCHC and the potential for Denver and North Dakota to faceoff in the quarterfinals. There is still a weekend left in the regular season and that matchup could change. But imagine those two heavyweights squaring off in the first round of the playoffs.<\/p>\n

As for a dark horse, these are always so difficult to pick. But in Atlantic Hockey, a series near-and-dear to your heart could be ripe for an upset. Canisius will travel to Bentley, but this best-of-three series comes three weeks after the Griffs took four of six points at Bentley in their only regular-season series.<\/p>\n

Certainly, this has been a memorable season for Bentley and in two quick years under Andy Jones the Falcons have gone from an also-ran to being in position in the final weekend to win a regular-season trophy. But I always worry that experience is key in the postseason. Andy while Jones himself has plenty from his days as an assistant at UMass Lowell, his lineup lacks players who have had postseason success.<\/p>\n

How about you? Do you see a dark horse winning this weekend? I\u2019m guessing you\u2019re not ratifying my Canisius pick.<\/p>\n

Dan<\/strong>: You really know how to hurt a guy, sometimes, don’t you.<\/p>\n

I don’t mean to keep it in Atlantic Hockey, but there’s a part of me really wondering if Eric Lang has some AIC magic left in his tank. Given everything that’s happened with that team and its eventual removal from the Division I ranks, Atlantic Hockey is wide open enough to let the Yellow Jackets get hot over the last couple of weeks. I like the matchup against Holy Cross because of its recency against the last weekend of the season and the inherent difficulty associated with beating a team – a good team, no less – three different times. I also like that few teams can play for nothing more than today, but AIC… well, there is no tomorrow, quite literally.<\/p>\n

Moving away from Atlantic Hockey, I think this is the most wide-open version of ECAC that’s existed for a while. The top two seeds haven’t advanced to face one another in a championship game since Union beat Colgate during the ’14 postseason, but the parity within the league is astounding.<\/p>\n

I’m not sure if a double-digit seed gets out of the first round like last year’s RPI win, but the bulk of teams situated between the No. 3 and No. 5 seeds had a chance to finish with a first-round bye before the final day of the regular season. The rest of the teams, especially Harvard, are lurking a bit deeper, and I really think the best goaltender in the league, which sometimes dictates a deep postseason run, is currently at Brown.<\/p>\n

Also, no team is more susceptible to upset-addled runs to the semifinal or championship rounds than the Bears, thanks in no small part to Brendan Whittet’s ability to shorten the bench and rely on a fiery hot netminder.<\/p>\n

This leads me back to a diverted path: the voted-on poll. It’s usually an indicator of people’s overall viewpoint, but I don’t remember a time when the cut-off between teams was as severe as the drop to Colorado College and Holy Cross. Should that mean there are more dark horses than we’re admitting? Or, more rhetorically, does this mean that people just don’t believe in teams that aren’t already fighting for Pairwise bubble status?<\/p>\n

Jim<\/strong>: I think because this season we have three conferences that look to be single-bid conferences (AHA, CCHA and ECAC), I think a lot of voters feel they know which teams belong in the top and which teams don\u2019t.<\/p>\n

By the end of the season, after a champion is crowned, you will have a poll likely with all 16 teams that make the tournament and another four that miss. It is where those four teams end up being ranked that often make me sit up and take notice.<\/p>\n

A good example currently is Arizona State. The Sun Devils could possibly win three playoff games, lose in the NCHC final and not make the tournament. Right now, the USCHO poll ranks ASU 12th. It\u2019s possible come season\u2019s end that the Sun Devils could be ranked among the top 12 and still miss the tournament.<\/p>\n

That would be crazy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Each week during the season, we look at the big events and big games around Division I men\u2019s college hockey in Tuesday Morning Quarterback. Dan: Another week closer to the NCAA tournament, and another chaotic week of Pairwise juggling in the books. First off, it’s good to get back in the saddle here with good […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":151660,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[1291],"tags":[812],"coauthors":[808],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTMQ: It's conference playoffs time, which means one step closer to the 2025 NCAA men's hockey tournament - College Hockey | USCHO.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Each week during the season, we look at the big events and big games around Division I men\u2019s college hockey in Tuesday Morning Quarterback. 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