{"id":151823,"date":"2025-03-11T18:00:43","date_gmt":"2025-03-11T23:00:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wwwproxy.uscho.com\/?p=151823"},"modified":"2025-03-10T16:35:18","modified_gmt":"2025-03-10T21:35:18","slug":"bracketology-big-ten-hockey-playoff-upsets-skew-pairwise-rankings-somewhat-as-we-keep-an-eye-on-potential-allentown-regional","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwproxy.uscho.com\/2025\/03\/11\/bracketology-big-ten-hockey-playoff-upsets-skew-pairwise-rankings-somewhat-as-we-keep-an-eye-on-potential-allentown-regional\/","title":{"rendered":"BRACKETOLOGY: Big Ten hockey playoff upsets skew PairWise rankings somewhat as we keep an eye on potential Allentown regional"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"
UConn players celebrate an OT win over Maine back on Feb. 22, 2025 (photo: Clarus Multimedia Group).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Welcome to Week 9 of Bracketology.<\/p>\n

Each week from now until Selection Sunday on March 23, I will outline the current 16 teams in the men’s NCAA Division I tournament and attempt to seed a bracket based on the current field.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Playoffs continued this past weekend for four of the six leagues, with a couple of big upsets in the Big Ten conference tournament that stirred the PairWise up a little. Michigan was swept by Penn State, which places the Wolverines squarely on the bubble with about a 38% chance to still make the field as an at-large team. That also solidified the case for Penn State, the host school for the Allentown Region.<\/p>\n

The other upset was Notre Dame’s two-game sweep of Minnesota. While the Gophers have their NCAA spot locked up, they did fall to fourth in the PairWise, the first time the top five has seen any change in a month.<\/p>\n

We’ve also seen something develop that is a bit of an aberration when it comes to the PairWise. With still two weekends of conference tournament action remaining, there really isn’t much of a PairWise bubble left. Most of the teams have locked their position or are so close to a lock that falling below the PairWise bubble isn’t likely.<\/p>\n

As we sit here today, only two teams who are still playing can move inside the PairWise cutline without winning their conference tournament: UMass Lowell and Arizona State. But the actual odds of either of these teams earning an at-large bid is less than 2%.<\/p>\n

All that said, here are the 16 teams who would qualify for the NCAA tournament if the season ended today:<\/p>\n

1. Boston College*
\n2. Michigan State*
\n3. Maine
\n4. Minnesota
\n5. Western Michigan*
\n6. Boston University
\n7. Connecticut
\n8. Providence
\n9. Denver
\n10. Ohio State
\n11. Massachusetts
\n12. Penn State
\n13. Quinnipiac*
\n14. Michigan
\n15. Minnesota State*
\n16. Holy Cross*<\/p>\n

* – Indicates the regular-season champion for each conference. While each conference is awarded an autobid for its tournament champion, for the purposes of this exercise we will use regular-season champion to receive the autobid.<\/p>\n

With the field of 16 in place, we can now seed the four regions using basic bracket integrity (1 vs. 16, 2 vs. 15, 3 vs. 14, etc.).<\/p>\n

1. Boston College
\n8. Providence
\n9. Denver
\n16. Holy Cross<\/p>\n

2. Michigan State
\n7. Connecticut
\n10. Ohio State
\n15. Minnesota State<\/p>\n

3. Maine
\n6. Boston University
\n12. Penn State
\n14. Michigan<\/p>\n

4. Minnesota
\n5. Western Michigan
\n11. UMass
\n13. Quinnipiac<\/p>\n

As a reminder and also for those who aren’t regular readers of Bracketology, there is one thing that the committee seems to avoid at all costs and that is first-round matchups between teams from the same conference. This week, we have just one: 6 Boston University vs. 11 Massachusetts. We can fix this easily by swapping 11 UMass and 12 Penn State. Notice we execute this step before assigning regions, something that will be important given that Penn State is the host in Allentown.<\/p>\n

With that swap made, we now need to assign regions to each four-team bracket. As mentioned,Penn State as the host team in Allentown, they need to play there. This actually helps given the swap of UMass and Penn State. When we place Penn State and its four-team bracket in Allentown, we still have the other three top seeds in each region (Boston College, Michigan State and Minnesota) all playing in regions closest to campus.<\/p>\n

To accomplish that, we place Boston College as the top seed in Manchester, N.H. Michigan State is the second seed and the closest region is Toledo, Ohio, less than two hours from Lansing. Minnesota ends up relatively close to the Twin Cities in Fargo, N.D.<\/p>\n

Maine remains the outlier but as long as they remain a top seed, which is a 43% chance, they’ll play someplace other than Manchester.<\/p>\n

That gives us the following:<\/p>\n

Manchester Region<\/strong>
\n1. Boston College
\n8. Providence
\n9. Denver
\n16. Holy Cross<\/p>\n

Toledo Region<\/strong>
\n2. Michigan State
\n7. Connecticut
\n10. Ohio State
\n15. Minnesota State<\/p>\n

Allentown Region<\/strong>
\n3. Maine
\n6. Boston University
\n12. Penn State
\n14. Michigan<\/p>\n

Fargo Region<\/strong>
\n4. Minnesota
\n5. Western Michigan
\n11. UMass
\n13. Quinnipiac<\/p>\n

Now let’s look at attendance for each region. Regular readers know this is where we often get creative in hopes of creating better atmospheres in each region.<\/p>\n

I actually love where this bracket gets us. Boston College and Providence play in Manchester. Michigan State and Ohio State are in Toledo. Penn State will drive the gate in Allentown. And Minnesota along with rabid college hockey fans in Fargo should drive that region.<\/p>\n

With that in mind, we have our final bracket.<\/p>\n

Manchester Region<\/strong>
\n1. Boston College
\n2. Connecticut
\n3. Denver
\n4. Holy Cross<\/p>\n

Manchester Region<\/strong>
\n1. Boston College
\n8. Providence
\n9. Denver
\n16. Holy Cross<\/p>\n

Toledo Region<\/strong>
\n2. Michigan State
\n7. Connecticut
\n10. Ohio State
\n15. Minnesota State<\/p>\n

Allentown Region<\/strong>
\n3. Maine
\n6. Boston University
\n12. Penn State
\n14. Michigan<\/p>\n

Fargo Region<\/strong>
\n4. Minnesota
\n5. Western Michigan
\n11. UMass
\n13. Quinnipiac<\/p>\n

Last in<\/strong>: Michigan, Quinnipiac
\nFirst out<\/strong>: UMass Lowell, Arizona State<\/p>\n

Keep an eye on: The Allentown Region. There are a lot of games to play over the next two weekends and some of the rankings could shift and thus significantly change each region. But as it is, the Allentown Region is the “Bracket of Death.” Maine, BU, Penn State and Michigan will be one difficult region from which to emerge. A team that survives that region really earn their spot in the Frozen Four.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Welcome to Week 9 of Bracketology. Each week from now until Selection Sunday on March 23, I will outline the current 16 teams in the men’s NCAA Division I tournament and attempt to seed a bracket based on the current field. Playoffs continued this past weekend for four of the six leagues, with a couple […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":151836,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[947],"tags":[591,812],"coauthors":[800],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBRACKETOLOGY: Big Ten hockey playoff upsets skew PairWise rankings somewhat as we keep an eye on potential Allentown regional - College Hockey | USCHO.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Welcome to Week 9 of Bracketology. 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