{"id":1679,"date":"2018-03-17T22:21:58","date_gmt":"2018-03-18T03:21:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.uscho.com\/bracketology\/?p=1679"},"modified":"2018-03-17T22:21:58","modified_gmt":"2018-03-18T03:21:58","slug":"final-bracketology-a-prediction-for-the-2018-ncaa-mens-hockey-tournament-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwproxy.uscho.com\/2018\/03\/17\/final-bracketology-a-prediction-for-the-2018-ncaa-mens-hockey-tournament-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Final Bracketology: A prediction for the 2018 NCAA men’s hockey tournament"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"
Providence moves East in Jayson Moy’s projection of the 2018 NCAA tournament bracket (photo: Melissa Wade).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

It’s time for the final Bracketology of the season. Here I will predict how I think the NCAA Ice Hockey Committee will think and what the bracket will look like when it is announced (noon Sunday ET, ESPNU).<\/p>\n

First, here is my predicted bracket and then I’ll explain how I got there afterwards:<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n14 Princeton vs. 2 Notre Dame
\n11 Penn State vs. 6 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

East Regional (Bridgeport):<\/b>
\n15 Michigan Tech vs. 3 Cornell
\n12 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Providence<\/p>\n

West Regional (Sioux Falls):<\/b>
\n16 Air Force vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n9 Northeastern vs. 8 Michigan<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n13 Boston University vs. 4 Ohio State
\n10 Clarkson vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

Here is the final top 16 of the final PairWise Rankings (PWR) and the autobids not in the Top 16:<\/p>\n

Autobids:<\/p>\n

Atlantic Hockey:<\/b> Air Force
\nBig Ten:<\/b> Notre Dame
\nECAC Hockey:<\/b> Princeton
\nHockey East:<\/b> Boston University
\nNCHC:<\/b> Denver
\nWCHA:<\/b> Michigan Tech<\/p>\n

1 St. Cloud State
\n2t Notre Dame<\/b>
\n2t Cornell
\n4t Ohio State
\n4t Denver<\/b>
\n6 Minnesota State
\n7 Providence
\n8t Michigan
\n8t Northeastern
\n10 Clarkson
\n11 Penn State
\n12t Minnesota Duluth
\n12t Minnesota
\n14 North Dakota
\n15 Boston University<\/b>
\n16t Boston College
\n16t Bowling Green
\n16t Princeton<\/b>
\n21 Michigan Tech<\/b>
\n27 Air Force<\/b><\/p>\n

Step one<\/h4>\n

From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.<\/p>\n

We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any autobids that are not in the Top 16.<\/p>\n

From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.<\/p>\n

The ties and bubbles consist of Notre Dame and Cornell at 2, Ohio State and Denver at 4, Michigan and Northeastern at 8 and Minnesota Duluth and Minnesota at 12.<\/p>\n

We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.<\/p>\n

Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:<\/p>\n

1 St. Cloud State
\n2 Notre Dame
\n3 Cornell
\n4 Ohio State
\n5 Denver
\n6 Minnesota State
\n7 Providence
\n8 Michigan
\n9 Northeastern
\n10 Clarkson
\n11 Penn State
\n12 Minnesota Duluth
\n13 Boston University
\n14 Princeton
\n15 Michigan Tech
\n16 Air Force<\/p>\n

Step two<\/h4>\n

Now it’s time to assign the seeds.<\/p>\n

No. 1 seeds:<\/b> St. Cloud State, Notre Dame, Cornell, Ohio State
\nNo. 2 seeds:<\/b> Denver, Minnesota State, Providence, Michigan
\nNo. 3 seeds:<\/b> Northeastern, Clarkson, Penn State, Minnesota Duluth
\nNo. 4 seeds:<\/b> Boston University, Princeton, Michigan Tech, Air Force<\/p>\n

Step three<\/h4>\n

Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals according to geography.<\/p>\n

No. 1 St. Cloud State is placed in the West Regional in Sioux Falls
\nNo. 2 Notre Dame is placed in the Midwest Regional in Allentown
\nNo. 3 Cornell is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport
\nNo. 4 Ohio State is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester<\/p>\n

Step four<\/h4>\n

Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.<\/p>\n

Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not<\/b><\/i> assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).<\/p>\n

If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.<\/p>\n

No. 2 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

No. 8 Michigan is placed in No. 1 St. Cloud State’s regional, the West Regional
\nNo. 7 Providence is placed in No. 2 Notre Dame’s regional, the Midwest Regional
\nNo. 6 Minnesota State is placed in No. 3 Cornell’s regional, the East Regional
\nNo. 5 Denver is placed in No. 4 Ohio State’s regional, the Northeast Regional<\/p>\n

No. 3 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16; another with 2, 7, 10 and 15; another with 3, 6, 11 and 14; and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.<\/p>\n

Penn State, as a host school, must be placed first.<\/p>\n

No. 11 Penn State is placed in No. 7 Providence’s regional, the Midwest Regional
\nNo. 9 Northeastern is placed in No. 8 Michigan’s regional, the West Regional
\nNo. 10 Clarkson is placed in No. 6 Minnesota State’s regional, the East Regional
\nNo. 12 Minnesota Duluth is placed in No. 5 Denver’s regional, the Northeast Regional<\/p>\n

No. 4 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.<\/p>\n

No. 16 Air Force travels to No. 1 St Cloud State’s regional, the West Regional
\nNo. 15 Michigan Tech travels to No. 2 Notre Dame’s regional, the Midwest Regional
\nNo. 14 Princeton travels to No. 3 Cornell’s regional, the East Regional
\nNo. 13 Boston University travels to No. 4 Ohio State’s regional, the Northeast Regional<\/p>\n

The brackets as we have set them up:<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n15 Michigan Tech vs. 2 Notre Dame
\n11 Penn State vs. 7 Providence<\/p>\n

East Regional (Bridgeport):<\/b>
\n14 Princeton vs. 3 Cornell
\n10 Clarkson vs. 6 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

West Regional (Sioux Falls):<\/b>
\n16 Air Force vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n9 Northeastern vs. 8 Michigan<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n13 Boston University vs. 4 Ohio State
\n12 Minnesota Duluth vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have Princeton vs. Cornell and Minnesota Duluth vs. Denver.<\/p>\n

We swap Princeton with Michigan Tech and then we swap Minnesota Duluth with Clarkson.<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n14 Princeton vs. 2 Notre Dame
\n11 Penn State vs. 7 Providence<\/p>\n

East Regional (Bridgeport):<\/b>
\n15 Michigan Tech vs. 3 Cornell
\n12 Minnesota Duluth vs. 6 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

West Regional (Sioux Falls):<\/b>
\n16 Air Force vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n9 Northeastern vs. 8 Michigan<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n13 Boston University vs. 4 Ohio State
\n10 Clarkson vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

Now that we have solved all intra-conference matchups, let’s look at attendance.<\/p>\n

We see that Bridgeport could use a little help. But how can we help it?<\/p>\n

We can try to bring Providence or Northeastern to Bridgeport.<\/p>\n

I swap Providence with Minnesota State.<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n14 Princeton vs. 2 Notre Dame
\n11 Penn State vs. 6 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

East Regional (Bridgeport):<\/b>
\n15 Michigan Tech vs. 3 Cornell
\n12 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Providence<\/p>\n

West Regional (Sioux Falls):<\/b>
\n16 Air Force vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n9 Northeastern vs. 8 Michigan<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n13 Boston University vs. 4 Ohio State
\n10 Clarkson vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

My other choice would have been bringing Northeastern to Bridgeport; that would mean swapping it and Minnesota Duluth. But with Providence higher in the PairWise, I move Providence instead.<\/p>\n

We can do some more things like try to get the all-Minnesota matchup to Sioux Falls, but I am not inclined to think that the movements are worth messing with the bracket integrity too much.<\/p>\n

So I will stand pat with this.<\/p>\n

Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

My predicted bracket<\/h4>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n14 Princeton vs. 2 Notre Dame
\n11 Penn State vs. 6 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

East Regional (Bridgeport):<\/b>
\n15 Michigan Tech vs. 3 Cornell
\n12 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Providence<\/p>\n

West Regional (Sioux Falls):<\/b>
\n16 Air Force vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n9 Northeastern vs. 8 Michigan<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n13 Boston University vs. 4 Ohio State
\n10 Clarkson vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

Conference breakdowns<\/h4>\n

Big Ten — 4
\nNCHC — 3
\nHockey East — 3
\nECAC Hockey — 3
\nWCHA — 2
\nAtlantic Hockey — 1<\/p>\n

Last week’s brackets<\/h4>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n15 Northern Michigan vs. 4 Ohio State
\n12 Penn State vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

East Regional (Bridgeport):<\/b>
\n13 Minnesota vs. 3 Cornell
\n9 Providence vs. 6 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

West Regional (Sioux Falls):<\/b>
\n16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n10 Michigan vs. 8 Minnesota Duluth<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n14 Boston College vs. 2 Notre Dame
\n11 Clarkson vs. 7 Northeastern<\/p>\n

This week’s movement<\/h4>\n

Out:<\/b> Mercyhurst, Northern Michigan, Boston College, Minnesota<\/p>\n

In:<\/b> Air Force, Michigan Tech, Boston University, Princeton<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jayson Moy gives his prediction of what the NCAA tournament bracket will look like when it’s revealed on Sunday (photo: Melissa Wade).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":94773,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[947],"tags":[],"coauthors":[869],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nFinal Bracketology: A prediction for the 2018 NCAA men's hockey tournament - College Hockey | USCHO.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Jayson Moy gives his prediction of what the NCAA tournament bracket will look like when it's revealed on Sunday (photo: Melissa Wade).\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.uscho.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1679\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Final Bracketology: A prediction for the 2018 NCAA men's hockey tournament - 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