{"id":91491,"date":"2019-02-27T17:00:18","date_gmt":"2019-02-27T23:00:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.uscho.com\/?p=91491"},"modified":"2020-08-24T12:43:21","modified_gmt":"2020-08-24T17:43:21","slug":"bracketology-if-ncaa-tournament-started-today-umass-lowell-out-bowling-green-in","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwproxy.uscho.com\/2019\/02\/27\/bracketology-if-ncaa-tournament-started-today-umass-lowell-out-bowling-green-in\/","title":{"rendered":"Bracketology: If NCAA tournament started today, UMass Lowell out, Bowling Green in"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"<\/a>
Harvard and Cornell would be in the NCAA tournament if games started today (photo: Harvard Athletics).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

It\u2019s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style.<\/p>\n

It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament might look like come selection time, using what we know now.<\/p>\n

It’s a look into the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.<\/p>\n

This is not a be-all, end-all analysis of the bracket. I am trying to give you, the reader, an idea of what the committee might<\/i><\/b> be thinking and not exactly what they are thinking.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ll be bringing you a new one every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced on the evening of March 24.<\/p>\n

If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Here are the facts:<\/p>\n

\u2022 Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.<\/p>\n

\u2022 There are four regional sites<\/a> (East \u2013 Providence, R.I.(March 30-31); Northeast \u2013 Manchester, N.H.(March 29-30); Midwest \u2013 Allentown, Pa.(March 30-31); West \u2013 Fargo, N.D.(March 29-30).<\/p>\n

\u2022 A host institution that is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host and cannot be moved. The host institutions this year: Brown in Providence, University of New Hampshire in Manchester, Penn State in Allentown and North Dakota in Fargo.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Seedings will not be switched. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.<\/p>\n

Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, from the 2019 pre-championship manual<\/a>:<\/p>\n

In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts, including competitive equity, financial success and the likelihood of a playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For this model, the following is a basic set of priorities:<\/p>\n

1. Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s rankings of 1-16. The top four teams are No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds.<\/p>\n

2. Step two is to place the home teams. Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.<\/p>\n

3. Step three is to fill in the bracket so that first-round conference matchups are avoided, unless it corrupts the integrity of the bracket. If five or more teams from one conference are selected to the championship, then the integrity of the bracket will be protected (i.e., maintaining the pairing process according to seed will take priority over avoidance of first-round conference matchups). To complete each regional, the committee assigns one team from each of the remaining seeded groups so there is a No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 seed at each regional site.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR)<\/a>, and the conference leaders through all games of February 26:<\/p>\n

1t St. Cloud State<\/b>
\n1t Massachusetts<\/b>
\n3 Minnesota Duluth
\n4 Denver
\n5 Minnesota State<\/b>
\n6 Quinnipiac
\n7 Ohio State<\/b>
\n8 Arizona State
\n9t Providence
\n9t Northeastern
\n11 Western Michigan
\n12t Clarkson
\n12t Cornell<\/b>
\n14 Harvard
\n15 Bowling Green
\n16 UMass Lowell
\n33 American International<\/b><\/p>\n

Current conference leaders based on winning percentage BOLDED Above<\/b>:<\/p>\n

Atlantic Hockey:<\/b> American International
\nBig Ten:<\/b> Ohio State
\nECAC Hockey:<\/b> Cornell
\nHockey East:<\/b> Massachusetts
\nNCHC:<\/b> St. Cloud State
\nWCHA:<\/b> Minnesota State<\/p>\n

Notes<\/h4>\n

\u2022 Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played — i.e.<\/i>, the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Because there are an uneven amount of games played inside each conference, I will be using winning percentage, not points accumulated, to determine the current leader in each conference. This team is my assumed conference tournament champion after applying the tiebreakers.<\/p>\n

Step one<\/h4>\n

From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.<\/p>\n

We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only teams that is not is American International.<\/p>\n

From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.<\/p>\n

The ties and bubbles consist of St. Cloud State and Massachusetts at 1, Providence and Northeastern at 9, and Clarkson and Cornell at 12.<\/p>\n

We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.<\/p>\n

Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:<\/p>\n

1 St. Cloud State<\/b>
\n2 Massachusetts<\/b>
\n3 Minnesota Duluth
\n4 Denver
\n5 Minnesota State<\/b>
\n6 Quinnipiac
\n7 Ohio State<\/b>
\n8 Arizona State
\n9 Providence
\n10 Northeastern
\n11 Western Michigan
\n12 Clarkson
\n13 Cornell<\/b>
\n14 Harvard
\n15 Bowling Green
\n16 American International<\/b><\/p>\n

Step two<\/h4>\n

Now it’s time to assign the seeds.<\/p>\n

No. 1 seeds:<\/b> St. Cloud State, Massachusetts, Minnesota Duluth, Denver
\nNo. 2 seeds:<\/b> Minnesota State, Quinnipiac, Ohio State, Arizona State
\nNo. 3 seeds:<\/b> Providence, Northeastern, Western Michigan, Clarkson
\nNo. 4 seeds:<\/b> Cornell, Harvard, Bowling Green, American International<\/p>\n

Step three<\/h4>\n

Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.<\/p>\n

No. 1 St. Cloud State is place in Fargo
\nNo. 2 Massachusetts is placed in Manchester
\nNo. 3 Minnesota Duluth is placed in Allentown
\nNo. 4 Denver is placed in Providence<\/p>\n

This has been done based on distance \u2013 nothing else. Minnesota Duluth is closer to Allentown than Providence.<\/p>\n

Step four<\/h4>\n

Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.<\/p>\n

Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not<\/b><\/i> assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).<\/p>\n

If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.<\/p>\n

So therefore:<\/p>\n

No. 2 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

No. 8 Arizona State is placed in No. 1 St. Cloud\u2019s regional, the West Regional
\nNo. 7 Ohio State is placed in No. 2 Massachusetts\u2019 regional, the Northeast Regional
\nNo. 6 Quinnipiac is placed in No. 3 Minnesota Duluth\u2019s regional, the Midwest Regional
\nNo. 5 Minnesota State is placed in No. 4 Denver\u2019s regional, the East Regional<\/p>\n

No. 3 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16; another with 2, 7, 10 and 15; another with 3, 6, 11 and 14; and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.<\/p>\n

No. 9 Providence is placed in No. 8 Arizona State\u2019s regional, the West Regional
\nNo. 10 Northeastern is placed in No. 7 Ohio State\u2019s regional, the Northeast Regional
\nNo. 11 Western Michigan is placed in No. 6 Quinnipiac\u2019s regional, the Midwest Regional
\nNo. 12 Clarkson is placed in No. 5 Minnesota State\u2019s regional, the East Regional<\/p>\n

No. 4 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.<\/p>\n

No. 16 American International travels to No. 1 St. Cloud State\u2019s regional, the West Regional
\nNo. 15 Bowling Green travels to No. 2 Massachusetts\u2019 regional, the Northeast Regional
\nNo. 14 Harvard travels to No. 3 Minnesota Duluth\u2019s regional, the Midwest Regional
\nNo. 13 Cornell travels to No. 4 Denver\u2019s regional, the East Regional<\/p>\n

The brackets as we have set them up:<\/p>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n9 Providence vs. 8 Arizona State<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n14 Harvard vs. 3 Minnesota Duluth
\n11 Western Michigan vs. 6 Quinnipiac<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n13 Cornell vs. 4 Denver
\n12 Clarkson vs. 5 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n15 Bowling Green vs. 2 Massachusetts
\n10 Northeastern vs. 7 Ohio State<\/p>\n

Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have none.<\/p>\n

Now we have to look at attendance and proximity of schools to regionals.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s focus on proximity to regionals this week. Remember, the NCAA likes to create atmosphere by placing teams as close as they can to their fan bases. So let\u2019s try to do that as much as possible.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s look at the second band at the moment. I see some obvious things here \u2013 Minnesota State to Fargo, Ohio State to Allentown and Quinnipiac to Providence.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s make all those swaps.<\/p>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n9 Providence vs. 5 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n14 Harvard vs. 3 Minnesota Duluth
\n11 Western Michigan vs. 7 Ohio State<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n13 Cornell vs. 4 Denver
\n12 Clarkson vs. 6 Quinnipiac<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n15 Bowling Green vs. 2 Massachusetts
\n10 Northeastern vs. 8 Arizona State<\/p>\n

Now, let\u2019s look at the third band.<\/p>\n

Providence to Providence. I will continue to say that the committee will do this because it\u2019s been done before.<\/p>\n

Clarkson to Allentown in this case, meaning Western Michigan moves to Fargo.<\/p>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n11 Western Michigan vs. 5 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n14 Harvard vs. 3 Minnesota Duluth
\n12 Clarkson vs. 7 Ohio State<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n13 Cornell vs. 4 Denver
\n9 Providence vs. 6 Quinnipiac<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n15 Bowling Green vs. 2 Massachusetts
\n10 Northeastern vs. 8 Arizona State<\/p>\n

Now the fourth band. Bowling Green to Allentown and Harvard to Manchester.<\/p>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n11 Western Michigan vs. 5 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n15 Bowling Green vs. 3 Minnesota Duluth
\n12 Clarkson vs. 7 Ohio State<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n13 Cornell vs. 4 Denver
\n9 Providence vs. 6 Quinnipiac<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n14 Harvard vs. 2 Massachusetts
\n10 Northeastern vs. 8 Arizona State<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s take a look at that bracket.<\/p>\n

It looks pretty good to be honest with you. Fargo only really has two teams which are close to the location, but that really can\u2019t be helped at the moment.<\/p>\n

Everywhere else looks pretty good.<\/p>\n

Yes, I\u2019ve thrown bracket integrity out the window here, but, teams are as close to their regionals as I can get them. So if the committee decides to think this way, this would be reasoning.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s my bracket for the week based on how I think the committee will think.<\/p>\n

See you next week for the next Bracketology.<\/p>\n

Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

This week’s brackets<\/h4>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n11 Western Michigan vs. 5 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n15 Bowling Green vs. 3 Minnesota Duluth
\n12 Clarkson vs. 7 Ohio State<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n13 Cornell vs. 4 Denver
\n9 Providence vs. 6 Quinnipiac<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n14 Harvard vs. 2 Massachusetts
\n10 Northeastern vs. 8 Arizona State<\/p>\n

Conference breakdowns<\/h4>\n

ECAC Hockey — 4
\nNCHC — 4
\nHockey East — 3
\nWCHA \u2013 2
\nAtlantic Hockey \u2013 1
\nBig Ten — 1
\nIndependent \u2013 1<\/p>\n

Last Week\u2019s Bracket<\/h4>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
\n9 Western Michigan vs. 8 Arizona State<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Allentown):<\/b>
\n13 Clarkson vs. 3 Minnesota Duluth
\n11 Northeastern vs. 7 Ohio State<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n14 UMass Lowell vs. 4 Denver
\n12 Providence vs. 6 Quinnipiac<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n15 Harvard vs. 2 Massachusetts
\n10 Cornell vs. 5 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

Out: UMass Lowell (14)
\nIn: Bowling Green (15)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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