{"id":94740,"date":"2015-03-22T02:14:02","date_gmt":"2015-03-22T07:14:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.uscho.com\/bracketology\/?p=1457"},"modified":"2020-08-24T18:46:34","modified_gmt":"2020-08-24T23:46:34","slug":"heres-our-final-prediction-for-the-2015-ncaa-tournament-brackets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/2015\/03\/22\/heres-our-final-prediction-for-the-2015-ncaa-tournament-brackets\/","title":{"rendered":"Here’s our final prediction for the 2015 NCAA tournament brackets"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"
Minnesota State will be the No. 1 overall seed for the 2015 NCAA tournament (photo: Jim Rosvold).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

It’s time for the final Bracketology of the season. Here, I will predict how I think the NCAA Men’s Ice Hockey Committee will think and what the bracket will look like when it is announced (noon EDT Sunday, ESPN).<\/p>\n

First, here is my predicted bracket and then I’ll explain how I got there afterwards:<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (South Bend):<\/b>
\n16 Rochester Institute of Technology vs. 1 Minnesota State
\n10 Minnesota vs. 8 Omaha<\/p>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n15 Providence vs. 2 North Dakota
\n12 St. Cloud State vs. 7 Michigan Tech<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n14 Quinnipiac vs. 3 Boston University
\n11 Boston College vs. 6 Minnesota-Duluth<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n13 Yale vs. 4 Miami
\n9 Harvard vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

Here is the top 16 of the final PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the other autobids that are not in the top 16:<\/p>\n

1 Minnesota State
\n2 North Dakota
\n3 Boston University
\n4 Miami
\n5 Denver
\n6 Minnesota-Duluth
\n7 Michigan Tech
\n8 Omaha
\n9 Harvard
\n10 Minnesota
\n11 Boston College
\n12 St. Cloud State
\n13 Yale
\n14t Quinnipiac
\n14t Providence
\n16 Bowling Green
\n38 RIT<\/p>\n

Autobids:<\/p>\n

Atlantic Hockey:<\/b> RIT
\nBig Ten:<\/b> Minnesota
\nECAC Hockey:<\/b> Harvard
\nHockey East:<\/b> Boston University
\nNCHC:<\/b> Miami
\nWCHA:<\/b> Minnesota State<\/p>\n

Step one<\/h4>\n

From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.<\/p>\n

We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any highest seeds left that are not currently in the top 16. The only team that is not is RIT.<\/p>\n

From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.<\/p>\n

The ties and bubbles consist of Quinnipiac and Providence at 14.<\/p>\n

We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.<\/p>\n

Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:<\/p>\n

1 Minnesota State
\n2 North Dakota
\n3 Boston University
\n4 Miami
\n5 Denver
\n6 Minnesota-Duluth
\n7 Michigan Tech
\n8 Omaha
\n9 Harvard
\n10 Minnesota
\n11 Boston College
\n12 St. Cloud State
\n13 Yale
\n14 Quinnipiac
\n15 Providence
\n16 RIT<\/p>\n

Step two<\/h4>\n

Now it’s time to assign the seeds.<\/p>\n

No. 1 seeds:<\/b> Minnesota State, North Dakota, Boston University, Miami<\/p>\n

No. 2 seeds:<\/b> Denver, Minnesota-Duluth, Michigan Tech, Omaha<\/p>\n

No. 3 seeds:<\/b> Harvard, Minnesota, Boston College, St. Cloud State<\/p>\n

No. 4 seeds:<\/b> Yale, Quinnipiac, Providence, RIT<\/p>\n

Step three<\/h4>\n

Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.<\/p>\n

North Dakota, as a host institution, is placed first.<\/p>\n

No. 2 North Dakota is placed in the West Regional in Fargo.
\nNo. 1 Minnesota State is placed in the Midwest Regional in South Bend.
\nNo. 3 Boston University is placed in the Northeast Regional in Manchester.
\nNo. 4 Miami is placed in the East Regional in Providence.<\/p>\n

Step four<\/h4>\n

Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference first-round matchups if possible.<\/p>\n

Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not<\/b><\/i> assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).<\/p>\n

If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.<\/p>\n

So therefore:<\/p>\n

No. 2 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

No. 8 Omaha is placed in No. 1 Minnesota State’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
\nNo. 7 Michigan Tech is placed in No. 2 North Dakota’s regional, the West Regional.
\nNo. 6 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in No. 3 Boston University’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
\nNo. 5 Denver is placed in No. 4 Miami’s regional, the East Regional.<\/p>\n

No. 3 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9 and 16; another with 2, 7, 10 and 15; another with 3, 6, 11 and 14; and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.<\/p>\n

No. 9 Harvard is placed in No. 8 Omaha’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
\nNo. 10 Minnesota is placed in No. 7 Michigan Tech’s regional, the West Regional.
\nNo. 11 Boston College is placed in No. 6 Minnesota-Duluth’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
\nNo. 12 St. Cloud State is placed in No. 5 Denver’s regional, the East Regional.<\/p>\n

No. 4 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.<\/p>\n

No. 16 RIT is sent to No. 1 Minnesota State’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
\nNo. 15 Providence is sent to No. 2 North Dakota’s regional, the West Regional.
\nNo. 14 Quinnipiac is sent to No. 3 Boston University’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
\nNo. 13 Yale is sent to No. 4 Miami’s regional, the East Regional.<\/p>\n

The brackets as we have set them up:<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n13 Yale vs. 4 Miami
\n12 St. Cloud State vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n14 Quinnipiac vs. 3 Boston University
\n11 Boston College vs. 6 Minnesota-Duluth<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (South Bend):<\/b>
\n16 RIT vs. 1 Minnesota State
\n9 Harvard vs. 8 Omaha<\/p>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n15 Providence vs. 2 North Dakota
\n10 Minnesota vs. 7 Michigan Tech<\/p>\n

Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have one in St. Cloud State vs. Denver.<\/p>\n

The NCHC has six teams in the tournament, so by the book, the committee can allow for a first-round matchup between those teams. But we’ve seen in the past that if the committee can avoid that happening, it will.<\/p>\n

So we have to swap St. Cloud State. The only matchup that can be done here is for St. Cloud to play Michigan Tech to avoid the NCHC-NCHC matchup.<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n13 Yale vs. 4 Miami
\n10 Minnesota vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n14 Quinnipiac vs. 3 Boston University
\n11 Boston College vs. 6 Minnesota-Duluth<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (South Bend):<\/b>
\n16 RIT vs. 1 Minnesota State
\n9 Harvard vs. 8 Omaha<\/p>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n15 Providence vs. 2 North Dakota
\n12 St. Cloud State vs. 7 Michigan Tech<\/p>\n

What work is left to be done? Just moving some things around for travel and attendance.<\/p>\n

I will swap Harvard with Minnesota to bring the Eastern team back East.<\/p>\n

East Regional (Providence):<\/b>
\n13 Yale vs. 4 Miami
\n9 Harvard vs. 5 Denver<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Manchester):<\/b>
\n14 Quinnipiac vs. 3 Boston University
\n11 Boston College vs. 6 Minnesota-Duluth<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (South Bend):<\/b>
\n16 RIT vs. 1 Minnesota State
\n10 Minnesota vs. 8 Omaha<\/p>\n

West Regional (Fargo):<\/b>
\n15 Providence vs. 2 North Dakota
\n12 St. Cloud State vs. 7 Michigan Tech<\/p>\n

Now some big questions arise here.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Do we move Providence back to Providence? That means switching out Yale. Moving a higher seed away from a closer geography does not seem too fair. I’ve been saying all season long that I can move Providence back East as long as it is a higher seed than another Eastern team. Here, that’s not the case. So I leave Providence in Fargo.<\/p>\n

\u2022 How about the fact that Boston College and Boston University are in the same regional? I think it’s a non-factor. They didn’t meet in the postseason this year. And it’s bracket integrity. I elect to keep that matchup.<\/p>\n

So that’s it, the bracket.<\/p>\n

The conference breakdown:<\/p>\n

NCHC — 6
\nECAC Hockey — 3
\nHockey East — 3
\nWCHA — 2
\nBig Ten — 1
\nAtlantic Hockey — 1<\/p>\n

We’ll see how the committee does it on Sunday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jayson Moy picks how he thinks the field will be arranged.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":94741,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[947],"tags":[],"coauthors":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHere's our final prediction for the 2015 NCAA tournament brackets - College Hockey | USCHO.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Jayson Moy picks how he thinks the field will be arranged.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.uscho.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94740\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Here's our final prediction for the 2015 NCAA tournament brackets - College Hockey | USCHO.com\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Jayson Moy picks how he thinks the field will be arranged.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.uscho.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94740\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"College Hockey | USCHO.com\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/OfficialUSCHO\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2015-03-22T07:14:02+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-08-24T23:46:34+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/2015032120-42-2612636.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"499\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"333\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jayson Moy\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@USCHO\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@USCHO\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jayson Moy\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/2015\/03\/22\/heres-our-final-prediction-for-the-2015-ncaa-tournament-brackets\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/2015\/03\/22\/heres-our-final-prediction-for-the-2015-ncaa-tournament-brackets\/\",\"name\":\"Here's our final prediction for the 2015 NCAA tournament brackets - 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