{"id":94750,"date":"2016-02-24T15:00:34","date_gmt":"2016-02-24T21:00:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.uscho.com\/bracketology\/?p=1504"},"modified":"2020-08-24T17:39:17","modified_gmt":"2020-08-24T22:39:17","slug":"three-weeks-out-and-wholesale-changes-could-help-attendance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwproxy.uscho.com\/2016\/02\/24\/three-weeks-out-and-wholesale-changes-could-help-attendance\/","title":{"rendered":"Three weeks out, and wholesale changes could help attendance"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"
Boston University and Yale played in the first round of the 2015 NCAA tournament and could be in line to meet again under the current PairWise Rankings (photo: Matt Eisenberg).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style. It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament will wind up come selection time.<\/p>\n

It’s a look into what are the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.<\/p>\n

We’ll keep bringing you a new one every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced on March 20.<\/p>\n

Those of you that are veterans of the college hockey scene know that it is all about the PairWise Rankings<\/a>. This is USCHO’s numerical approach that simulates the way the NCAA Division I men’s ice hockey committee chooses the teams that make the NCAA tournament.<\/p>\n

Since USCHO began the PairWise Rankings, we have correctly identified all of the teams that have been selected to the NCAA tournament.<\/p>\n

I am the only prognosticator to have correctly predicted the exact brackets for the NCAA tournament in four of the last five years, meaning that I have predicted how the committee thought when putting together the brackets.<\/p>\n

This is not a be-all, end-all analysis of the bracket. I am trying to give you, the reader, an idea of what the committee might be thinking and not exactly what they are thinking.<\/p>\n

If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Here are the facts:<\/p>\n

\u2022 Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.<\/p>\n

\u2022 There are four regional sites<\/a> (East — Albany, N.Y.; Northeast — Worcester, Mass.; Midwest — Cincinnati; West — St. Paul, Minn.).<\/p>\n

\u2022 A host institution that is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host and cannot be moved. There are four host institutions this year: Union in Albany, Holy Cross in Worcester, Miami in Cincinnati and Minnesota in St. Paul.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Seedings will not be switched. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intraconference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.<\/p>\n

Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, from the 2016 pre-championship manual<\/a>:<\/p>\n

In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts, including competitive equity, financial success and the likelihood of a playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For this model, the following is a basic set of priorities:<\/p>\n

1. Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s rankings of 1-16. The top four teams are No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds.<\/p>\n

2. Step two is to place the home teams. Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.<\/p>\n

3. Step three is to fill in the bracket so that first-round conference matchups are avoided, unless it corrupts the integrity of the bracket. If five or more teams from one conference are selected to the championship, then the integrity of the bracket will be protected (i.e., maintaining the pairing process according to seed will take priority over avoidance of first-round conference matchups). To complete each regional, the committee assigns one team from each of the remaining seeded groups so there is a No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 seed at each regional site.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR)<\/a>, and the conference leaders through all games of Feb. 23:<\/p>\n

1 Quinnipiac
\n2 St. Cloud State
\n3 Boston College
\n4 North Dakota
\n5 Providence
\n6 Michigan
\n7 Yale
\n8t Denver
\n8t Notre Dame
\n8t Boston University
\n11 Omaha
\n12 Harvard
\n13 Massachusetts-Lowell
\n14 Cornell
\n15 Penn State
\n16t Minnesota
\n16t Miami
\n16t Michigan Tech
\n23t Robert Morris
\n23t Minnesota State<\/p>\n

Current conference leaders based on winning percentage:<\/p>\n

Atlantic Hockey:<\/b> Robert Morris
\nBig Ten:<\/b> Minnesota
\nECAC Hockey:<\/b> Quinnipiac
\nHockey East:<\/b> Boston College
\nNCHC:<\/b> St. Cloud State (Based on total goals tiebreaker)
\nWCHA:<\/b> Minnesota State<\/p>\n

Notes<\/h4>\n

\u2022 Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played — i.e.<\/i>, the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Because there are an uneven amount of games played inside each conference, I will be using winning percentage, not points accumulated, to determine the current leader in each conference. This team is my assumed conference tournament champion after applying the tiebreakers.<\/p>\n

Step one<\/h4>\n

From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.<\/p>\n

We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only teams that are not are Minnesota State, Minnesota and Robert Morris.<\/p>\n

From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion. We have a three-way tie for eighth, so we break that using the RPI.<\/p>\n

Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:<\/p>\n

1 Quinnipiac
\n2 St. Cloud State
\n3 Boston College
\n4 North Dakota
\n5 Providence
\n6 Michigan
\n7 Yale
\n8 Denver
\n9 Notre Dame
\n10 Boston University
\n11 Omaha
\n12 Harvard
\n13 Massachusetts-Lowell
\n14 Minnesota
\n15 Robert Morris
\n16 Minnesota State<\/p>\n

Step two<\/h4>\n

Now it’s time to assign the seeds.<\/p>\n

No. 1 seeds:<\/b> Quinnipiac, St. Cloud State, Boston College, North Dakota<\/p>\n

No. 2 seeds:<\/b> Providence, Michigan, Yale, Denver<\/p>\n

No. 3 seeds:<\/b> Notre Dame, Boston University, Omaha, Harvard<\/p>\n

No. 4 seeds:<\/b> Massachusetts-Lowell, Minnesota, Robert Morris, Minnesota State<\/p>\n

Step three<\/h4>\n

Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.<\/p>\n

No. 1 Quinnipiac is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester.
\nNo. 2 St. Cloud State is placed in the West Regional in St. Paul.
\nNo. 3 Boston College is placed in the East Regional in Albany.
\nNo. 4 North Dakota is placed in the Midwest Regional in Cincinnati.<\/p>\n

Step four<\/h4>\n

Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intraconference matchups if possible.<\/p>\n

Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not<\/b><\/i> assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).<\/p>\n

If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.<\/p>\n

So therefore:<\/p>\n

No. 2 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

No. 8 Denver is placed in No. 1 Quinnipiac’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
\nNo. 7 Yale is placed in No. 2 St. Cloud State’s regional, the West Regional.
\nNo. 6 Michigan is placed in No. 3 Boston College’s regional, the East Regional.
\nNo. 5 Providence is placed in No. 4 North Dakota’s regional, the Midwest Regional.<\/p>\n

No. 3 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16; another with 2, 7, 10 and 15; another with 3, 6, 11 and 14; and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.<\/p>\n

No. 9 Notre Dame is placed in No. 8 Denver’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
\nNo. 10 Boston University is placed in No. 7 Yale’s regional, the West Regional.
\nNo. 11 Omaha is placed in No. 6 Michigan’s regional, the East Regional.
\nNo. 12 Harvard is placed in No. 5 Providence’s regional, the Midwest Regional.<\/p>\n

No. 4 seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.<\/p>\n

Since Minnesota is a host institution, we must place Minnesota in the West Regional.<\/p>\n

No. 14 Minnesota is sent to No. 2 St. Cloud State’s regional, the West Regional.
\nNo. 16 Minnesota State is sent to No. 1 Quinnipiac’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
\nNo. 15 Robert Morris is sent to No. 3 Boston College’s regional, the East Regional.
\nNo. 13 Massachusetts-Lowell is sent to No. 4 North Dakota’s regional, the Midwest Regional.<\/p>\n

The brackets as we have set them up:<\/p>\n

East Regional (Albany):<\/b>
\n15 Robert Morris vs. 3 Boston College
\n11 Omaha vs. 6 Michigan<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n16 Minnesota State vs. 1 Quinnipiac
\n9 Notre Dame vs 8 Denver<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):<\/b>
\n13 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 4 North Dakota
\n12 Harvard vs. 5 Providence<\/p>\n

West Regional (St. Paul):<\/b>
\n14 Minnesota vs. 2 St. Cloud State
\n10 Boston University vs. 7 Yale<\/p>\n

Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have none this week.<\/p>\n

We move onto attendance aspects of the bracket.<\/p>\n

The second and third band games are where we move matchups. How do we move them? We move matchups to maintain bracket integrity as close as possible.<\/p>\n

Thus, Providence, as the No. 5 overall seed, should be as close to that as possible. Therefore, we move Harvard vs. Providence to Albany and the bracket led by No. 3 seed Boston College.<\/p>\n

In turn, Boston University vs. Yale moves to Worcester.<\/p>\n

Then we move No. 8 seed Denver’s first-round game against No. 9 Notre Dame to the bracket featuring No. 2 seed St. Cloud State. And as a result we move Michigan to Cincinnati.<\/p>\n

East Regional (Albany):<\/b>
\n15 Robert Morris vs. 3 Boston College
\n12 Harvard vs. 5 Providence<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n16 Minnesota State vs. 1 Quinnipiac
\n10 Boston University vs. 7 Yale<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):<\/b>
\n13 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 4 North Dakota
\n11 Omaha vs. 6 Michigan<\/p>\n

West Regional (St. Paul):<\/b>
\n14 Minnesota vs. 2 St. Cloud State
\n9 Notre Dame vs 8 Denver<\/p>\n

Once again, we have the same 16 teams in the tournament, and that’s about all we can do for this week.<\/p>\n

See you here next week for the next Bracketology.<\/p>\n

Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

This week’s brackets<\/h4>\n

East Regional (Albany):<\/b>
\n15 Robert Morris vs. 3 Boston College
\n12 Harvard vs. 5 Providence<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n16 Minnesota State vs. 1 Quinnipiac
\n10 Boston University vs. 7 Yale<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):<\/b>
\n13 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 4 North Dakota
\n11 Omaha vs. 6 Michigan<\/p>\n

West Regional (St. Paul):<\/b>
\n14 Minnesota vs. 2 St. Cloud State
\n9 Notre Dame vs 8 Denver<\/p>\n

Conference breakdowns<\/h4>\n

Hockey East — 5
\nNCHC — 4
\nECAC Hockey — 3
\nBig Ten — 2
\nWCHA — 1
\nAtlantic Hockey — 1<\/p>\n

On the move<\/h4>\n

In:<\/b> None<\/p>\n

Out:<\/b> None<\/p>\n

Attendance woes?<\/h4>\n

Cincinnati is still iffy, even with North Dakota and Michigan there.<\/p>\n

Last week’s brackets<\/h4>\n

East Regional (Albany):<\/b>
\n15 Minnesota State vs. 4 Boston College
\n12 Harvard vs. 5 Providence<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional (Worcester):<\/b>
\n16 Robert Morris vs. 1 Quinnipiac
\n10 Yale vs 8 Denver<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):<\/b>
\n13 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 3 North Dakota
\n11 Boston University vs. 6 Michigan<\/p>\n

West Regional (St. Paul):<\/b>
\n14 Minnesota vs. 2 St. Cloud State
\n9 Omaha vs. 7 Notre Dame<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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