rankings based on the process it will use to select the Division III field<\/a>. Using those rankings, let\u2019s look at each eligible team\u2019s chances of making the tournament.<\/p>\nTo recap: eleven teams will get their tickets punched: 7 Pool A teams, 1 Pool B Team, and 3 Pool C teams. Pool A consists of the seven teams that will win playoff championships in leagues with an automatic qualifier: ECAC East, ECAC Northeast, NCHA, NESCAC, MCHA, MIAC, and SUNYAC. One Pool B slot is reserved for an independent team or team from a conference that does not have an AQ: ECAC West and MASCAC. Pool C bids will be handed out to the highest remaining teams according to the NCAA rankings.<\/p>\n
The rub here is that there are East and West rankings, but not a combined one. So when the rubber hits the road, the committee will be combining the separate rankings on Selection Sunday.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s my guess as to where the teams still in the running stand:<\/p>\n
A lock<\/strong> : Oswego, Norwich, St. Norbert . These teams all won again last weekend and can also grab their conference’s autobids if they win out this weekend.<\/p>\nBet On It:<\/strong> Plattsburgh, Middlebury. These teams fare well in most head-to-head matchups with other contenders. The only way they don’t get in is massive upsets in the conference chanpionships.<\/p>\nGood Chance<\/strong>: Elmira, Gustavus Adolphus: Elmira is in the lead for the Pool B slot right now, but that could change – Manhattanville could jump over Elmira based on the results of the ECAC West championship. Even though it lost the MIAC title game, I still can’t see Gustavus falling behind St. Scholastica in the rankings. But it all comes down to how the committee weighs the criteria, and if UW-River Falls wins the NCHA. That would knock out the Gusties, unless there’s a 6-5 split.<\/p>\nOn the Bubble<\/strong>: St. Scholastica , Bowdoin, Manhattanville: Gustavus’ loss really hurts St. Scholastica. Bowdoin needs to either win the NESCAC or have Middlebury win it. Manhattanville has to beat Elmira in the ECAC West title game.<\/p>\nProbably Not<\/strong>: Amherst, Williams, Hamline: Just too many teams ahead of them.<\/p>\nMust Win Their AQ: Trinity, UW-River Falls, Babson, New England, Skidmore, Lawrence, Lake Forest, Curry, Johnson & Wales.<\/p>\n
Playing Out the String<\/strong>: These teams are from conferences that don\u2019t have an AQ, so even if they win their league championship, it won\u2019t raise them high enough in the criteria to get an at-large bid. At this point, there’s just the two teams contending for the MASCAC title: Salem State and Fitchburg State.<\/p>\nThank you Seniors<\/strong>: These teams have concluded their seasons: Utica, Lebabon Valley (forever?), Bethel, Concordia (MN), St. John’s, St. Mary’s, Finlandia, Concordia (WI), UW-Stout, UW-Eau Claire, UW-Superior, Conn College, Wesleyan, Geneseo, Potsdam, Cortland, Buffalo State, Castleton, S. Maine, Mass-Boston U of New England, Neumann (so a new champion this season), Hobart, Wentworth (big upset loss to Johnson & Wales), Suffolk, Becker, Nichols, W. New England, Salve Regina, Westfield State, Worcester State, Framingham State, Gustavus Adolphus, Augsburg, Bethel, St. Olaf, MSOE, Northland, UW-Stevens Point, Morrisville, Fredonia, Brockport.<\/p>\nOK, so let\u2019s take a shot at a possible bracket, assuming the higher seeded team wins its respective league:<\/p>\n
ECAC East: Norwich<\/p>\n
ECAC Northeast: Curry<\/p>\n
MCHA: Adrian<\/p>\n
MIAC: St. Thomas (already a winner)<\/p>\n
NCHA: St. Norbert<\/p>\n
NESCAC: Bowdoin<\/p>\n
SUNYAC: Oswego<\/p>\n
Going into the ECAC West semifinals, Elmira gets pool B. Who gets the three Pool C bids? Right now I think it’s Plattsburgh, Middlebury, and Gustavus Adolphus, which would mean a 7-4 East-West split. Upsets in the East will make it 8-3. River Falls winning the NCHA will doom Gustavus Adolphus.<\/p>\n
Assuming 7-4: would give us:<\/p>\n
E1: Norwich<\/p>\n
E2: Oswego<\/p>\n
E3: Middlebury<\/p>\n
E4: Plattsburgh<\/p>\n
E5: Bowdoin<\/p>\n
E6: Elmira<\/p>\n
E7: Curry<\/p>\n
W1: St. Norbert<\/p>\n
W2: Gustavus Adolphus<\/p>\n
W3: Adrian<\/p>\n
W4: St. Thomas<\/p>\n
First Round:<\/p>\n
Curry at Oswego<\/p>\n
Elmira at Middlebury<\/p>\n
Bowdoin at Plattsburgh<\/p>\n
Semifinals:<\/p>\n
Bowdoin\/Plattsburgh at Norwich<\/p>\n
Elmira\/Middlebury at Oswego<\/p>\n
St. Thomas at St. Norbert<\/p>\n
Adrian at Gustavus Adolphus<\/p>\n
Assuming 8-3 with an upset in the East:<\/p>\n
E1: Norwich<\/p>\n
E2: Oswego<\/p>\n
E3: Middlebury<\/p>\n
E4: Plattsburgh<\/p>\n
E5: Bowdoin<\/p>\n
E6: Elmira<\/p>\n
E7: Curry (or Trinity\/Amherst\/Williams\/Hamilton)<\/p>\n
E8: Babson\/New England\/Skidmore\/Johnson & Wales<\/p>\n
W1: St. Norbert<\/p>\n
W2: Adrian<\/p>\n
W3: St. Thomas<\/p>\n
First Round:<\/p>\n
St. Thomas at Adrian<\/p>\n
E8 at Bowdoin<\/p>\n
E7 at Elmira<\/p>\n
Quarterfinals:<\/p>\n
St. Thomas\/Adrian at St. Norbert<\/p>\n
Bowdoin\/E8 at Oswego<\/p>\n
Elmira\/E7 at Norwich<\/p>\n
Plattsburgh at Middlebury<\/p>\n
And for fun, let’s say River Falls wins the NCHA and Gustavus gets a Pool C. That would give us a potential 6-5 split:<\/p>\n
E1: Norwich<\/p>\n
E2: Oswego<\/p>\n
E3: Middlebury<\/p>\n
E4: Plattsburgh<\/p>\n
E5: Elmira<\/p>\n
E6: Curry<\/p>\n
W1: St. Norbert<\/p>\n
W2: Gustavus Adolphus<\/p>\n
W3: Adrian<\/p>\n
W4: UW-River Falls<\/p>\n
W5: St. Thomas<\/p>\n
First Round:<\/p>\n
St. Thomas at UW-River Falls<\/p>\n
Curry at Middlebury<\/p>\n
Elmira at Plattsburgh<\/p>\n
Quarterfinals:<\/p>\n
St. Thomas\/River Falls at St. Norbert<\/p>\n
Adrian at Gustavus Adolphus<\/p>\n
Middlebury\/Curry at Oswego<\/p>\n
Plattsburgh\/Elmira at Norwich<\/p>\n
Tune back in Sunday afternoon for the final pre-selection version of Bracketology.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
As Selection Sunday approaches, it’s time for version 2.0 of Division III Bracketology. We’ll do one again on Sunday prior to the NCAA announcement, and then a \u201cwhat the heck happened) postmortem. Again this week, the NCAA has produced rankings based on the process it will use to select the Division III field. Using those […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":140328,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[1425],"tags":[1469,1470],"coauthors":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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